@adamtaggart War is hell, especially for those directly involved in the kinetic part of it. God bless those troops. Also, think: securing and re-integrating a heaviliy sanctioned country which would add to energy supply AND stabilize a key trade route - those are all net positives.
@adamtaggart There must be a lot of doomers here who forget what good happened economically after World War 2. I understand you may have just though “World War?! Does this guy realize we’re talking about here?” Yes. This may be a World War-lite. 4th turning. Then there is a 1st Turning.
I have some deeply disturbing analysis to share. Stop now if you prefer the blue pill. Keep reading if you’re pro or con universal basic income — or “UBI” as it is known among us coastal elites.
I believe the incumbent, generally left-leaning — and deeply entrenched — US monetary policymaking cabal may be sabotaging the narrative regarding the health of the US labor market.
I don’t know if this is true or why they would be pursuing such an agenda if it is. All I know is that in nearly two decades on global Wall Street, I’ve never seen so many Ph.D. economists completely disregard — or perhaps intentionally obfuscate — an eminently observable truth from such a key economic statistic: labor supply.
I’m not a conspiracy theorist; decades of self-directed Bible study have taught me that human beings are generally tribal and deeply self-interested. This lesson makes me concerned that the consensus narrative regarding the alleged decline in the break-even rate of employment growth may be the result of a campaign to deny the current administration the monetary largesse that was generously supplied to the prior administration.
Or perhaps this is simply a case of Fed staffers not yet having enough time to properly study AI’s likely impact on the labor market. So, rather than spook the public about the risk of AI diffusion perpetuating a structural increase in unemployment, they are relying heavily upon the “lower break-even rate of employment growth” narrative to buy themselves more time for analysis.
FWIW, I have collaborated with the Fed for years and can confirm that the institution is full of incredibly bright, capable, and hardworking individuals who want the best for the American public. This experience leads me to avoid attributing to malice that which is adequately explained by mere uncertainty.
At any rate, I don’t particularly care if the incumbent, generally left-leaning — and deeply entrenched — US monetary policymaking cabal is engaged in a nefarious politicization of the Fed’s reaction function or if this is simply a case of a central bank flying blind during a historically uncertain period for the economy.
What I care about is evolving the narrative regarding the labor market to something that is more realistic and impactful than the intellectually lazy scapegoating of the administration’s border policy for why the labor market has suffered a severe loss of dynamism (e.g., the three-month SAAR of Private Sector Job Openings of -62% represents the sharpest contraction since the height of the COVID-19 crisis and the six-month SAAR of ADP Private Payrolls ex-Health Care & Education has been flat or negative for nearly two years now).
The more honest we all are about AI’s potential impact on the labor market — and our society — the more time and resources families and policymakers across our great country will have to prepare for it. This is bigger than finance.
With love,
—Skipper 💜
@FortniteStatus Done. Files verified. Also cleared Epic Game Launcher cache - deleted webcache folder. Startup screen goes to Initializing, then waiting for game, then full screen loading screen comes up and says ‘connecting’ (sometimes loading bar comes up) but never makes progress. Just hangs
Vice President @JDVance utterly embarrasses CBS and @margbrennan on the unvetted migrants that Biden allowed into our country 🔥☠️
Margaret Brennan: "These people are vetted!"
VP Vance: "Just like the guy who planned a terrorist attack in Oklahoma a few months ago?"
@BrilynHollyhand Just watched your segment on Maria’s Fox Business show. Proud of you for representing reason in your generation. KEEP GOING STRONG young man.