Jonathan Chavez

Chief Research Officer, Gydence Group. Taking care of Srs Bzns. Gouverneur Morris Stan. Purveyor of bespoke hot takes.

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

Harris went from +29 among 18-29 voters in WI in the NYT’s August poll to -18 today. Crosstab truthering is dangerous, but a 47 point swing in a demographic group really should force you to ask some serious questions about methodology, coverage biases, weighting decisions, etc.

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

@teddyschleifer @daveweigel Biggest proof point: he’s sitting at 11% on Santa Clara County, where he’s mayor of a city which accounts for over half the population. NOT GREAT!

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

Feels like the right time to remind the world that Scott Pelley as absolutely yoked.

[The New York Times @nytimes]

Scott Pelley, the longtime CBS News journalist, was fired by the network a day after he harshly criticized its leadership in a staff meeting.
https://t.co/rar8LEStHO

[Chris Cillizza @ChrisCillizza]

I think journalism would be a better place if we stopped giving out so many damn awards for journalism

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

These are not just the two best organizations in the NBA. These are the two best organizations in professional sports.

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

4 Down in the Sunday NYT crossword is a clear error. The band famously was militant about the fact their name Eagles, not The Eagles.

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

@jbarro Nothing wrong with it. I’m seeing nice results on my side.

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

@jbarro Is that Gary Peters theme music I hear?

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

@jbarro Are we sure this isn’t just a poster for a movie on Seinfeld?

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

In what has to be some kind of modern record, HarrisX missed the final RCV margin by 36 points in a poll of 3000+ voters. https://t.co/hb8xvxzYqP

[Jon Campbell @JonCampbellNY]

The ranked-choice tabulation is out.

Zohran Mamdani 56%
Andrew Cuomo 44%

On the third ballot.

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

We shouldn’t let the pollsters off the hook here, but the data modelers/voter file firms deserve some of blame here. Pollsters use their likely voter models for the electorate. They’re really bad with young voters. Really bad. Not the only issue, but a contributing factor.

[umichvoter @umichvoter]

The big question heading into the NYC race was what % of the electorate would be 18-44. @rudnicknoah had looked into this

Manhattan Institute had it ~ 24%
Marist had it ~ 30%
Emerson had it ~ 35%

The actual result was 18-44 year olds were 48-49% of the electorate 🚨

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

And another note: This is - by far- the biggest adjustment they have to make in their weighting scheme. Nothing else is close. Not a criticism of the Times at all here. Just noting this stuff isn't getting any easier.

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

The education problem remains the hardest thing to solve for pollsters. Low-trust voters are just not answering the phone. Yes, the Times is correctly weighting that 18% to 31%, but all pollsters should have real fears about the representativeness of the 18% to project the 31%.

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

Must watch for everyone. It's a MAJOR achievement by @dellavolpe and the team to have done 50 editions of this poll. It's a remarkable study, always interesting in the moment but even more interesting when the full picture is viewed. A+ work all around.

[Institute of Politics @HarvardIOP]

John Della Volpe (@dellavolpe), IOP's Director of Polling, breaks down several key findings in the 50th Edition of the Harvard Youth Poll, touching on young Americans' financial hardship & shifting traditional life goals. Read more: https://t.co/K01FWLViJY
https://t.co/BXxUS5l4Lq

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

The highlight of the Mavs season was losing the second play-in to Memphis so we didn't have to be subjected to this...

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

Obviously a 29% approval rating is NOT GREAT, but for all the Republicans dunking and writing the Democratic Party obituaries- in the same poll in Sept. 2017, the GOP was in a worse position, same fav but 8 points higher unfav. Stuff changes 🤷‍♂️

[Jake Tapper 🦅 @jaketapper]

CNN Poll: Democratic Party’s favorability drops to a record low | CNN Politics https://t.co/v0W2b00JCg

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

I was fortunate to get to interact with Senator Simpson a few times during my college days. A pure pleasure to be around. He wasn't just politician funny, he was legit hilarious (in addition to being generous, knowledgable, and passionate about making peoples lives better).

[Glenn Thrush @GlennThrush]

Getting Simpson on the phone for a 2-minute quote always turned into the best, funniest 45 minutes of my day...

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

Not enough is made of this: Trump's first term was the only period in the last 25 years where more than 10% of the population rated the economy as excellent. His cultural politics have never been some silver bullet (🥁). He just had/ran a good economy.

[Nate Silver @NateSilver538]

The implicit bargain of Trump for swing voters is that he'll run a good economy and then do a bunch of culture war stuff you can take or leave, but the libs will freak out about. If the economy is tanking for reasons that are largely his fault, that case is much less persuasive.

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

His grandparents are of Irish descent, from County Mayo. Really going for the @jbarro vote hard.

[Liberal Party @liberal_party]

Introducing our new Liberal Leader, Mark Carney!

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

Average Air traffic controller starting salary: $61K
Average MIT grad starting salary: $126K

[Sam Stein @samstein]

Trump, per the NYT, has a novel solution to a lot of these debates over staff reductions: Keep the smart folks, get rid of the dummies

[Jonathan Chavez @jschavez]

From America’s second most famous Maltese-American politician @PeteButtigieg

[Darrin Camilleri @darrincamilleri]

I’m proud to represent Wyandotte in the Michigan Senate. It’s a blue-collar town that has voted for Trump and for me, a Democrat.

More Democrats should be paying attention to places like Downriver if we want to win nationwide. Thank you @SenatorSlotkin for highlighting us.