The flaw in your assumptions here is that current elevated LA CARB diesel diffs are what will be realized on a go forward basis. In reality, CARB diesel over the medium to long term is ~5cpg premium to NYH ULSD. You also neglect to include the actual cash basis that is trading for RD in CA today (last trade -40cpg). On top of that, you don’t include logistics costs to MRL and logistics costs to destination markets. Collectively, those are probably ~50cpg on a conservative basis. I’m certainly not defending sell side analysts ability to fully understand an RD refinery’s margin capture, but I’ve watched you continuously paint far too rosy of a picture while ignoring fundamental aspects of the business. MRL is a good business with bright prospects, but to call it a 3-bagger from here just hurts your credibility.
It's hard to say definitively without a full pathway, but assuming 0 CI methane, it will meaningfully drive down the input CI of the H2 being produced - let's call it 8-10ish CI points in most cases (via SMR). If the CO2 is used for EOR, that will cancel out any benefits of lower CI hydrogen.
@argonbeam88 @biofuelslaw Very challenging math there, Josh. The negative CI RNG wants to find its way into trucks or other RIN/LCFS generating pathways. The food waste/LFG RNG is too expensive to make sense.
I will also be on a visit to Arizona University on April 10th! I’m excited to make new connections with the coaches and learn more about the program. Let’s get it!
@biofuelslaw This shouldn’t change how the program operates. It’s just simply how the mandate is communicated to the market. Ami I missing something @biofuelslaw ?
Excited to be named First Team All-League QB in the Redwood Adobe League! Great year and can’t wait to see what next year has in store for our team.
Season Highlights:
https://t.co/N6g1RNn69m
@dunnde@biofuelslaw “….does not believe that these RINs can be traded as an expired RIN is defined to be an invalid RIN in the regulations (80.1431(a)(1)) and it is a prohibited act to trade invalid RINs (80.1460(b)(2)).”
@dunnde@biofuelslaw That's an interesting rabbit hole - so CVR needs RINs and the only group that has valid length to offer is DK? A modern-day Hunt brothers situation....if only we knew how this would all shake out