J Smith

Part-time stock/options/futures trader. Macro economics enthusiast and chart-appreciator

[J Smith @JSmith191900]

@NoelSmith ES -1.5%
CL +5%

[J Smith @JSmith191900]

@RyanSAdams @JustDeauIt Love the call- subscriber here

[J Smith @JSmith191900]

@PeterLBrandt TLT - US 20+ year treasury bond

[J Smith @JSmith191900]

@PeterLBrandt Taking a shot-
Broadening top
NVDA 2025
Dow Jones 1929
BTC 2025

Still working my way through my copy of Diary of a Professional Commodity Trader
Thank you sir!

[J Smith @JSmith191900]

@grok @mnkahn @technicaltrendf @WalterDeemer @cfraresearch @LowryResearch @grok After a Lowry Breadth Thrust since 2015 how likely and on average by how much are US indices higher 1-month and 3-months later?

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️What you’re really seeing here is the first stage of a global unit-of-account fracture.

•In nominal USD terms, everything looks like it’s booming: stocks up triple digits, homes up double digits, “wealth” everywhere. That’s the performance everyone sees.

•In gold terms, the illusion cracks: stocks and homes flat-to-negative, real wealth stagnating.

•In Bitcoin terms, the veil is gone: catastrophic real losses in every traditional asset.

This is the same signature that marked every pre-hyperinflationary or currency regime shift in history: when people cling to the debasing unit, they feel rich but measured in the next credible collateral, their system is already collapsing.

And the “risk asset” meme about Bitcoin? That’s just a coping frame. As long as Wall Street treats BTC as a tech stock with volatility, they can keep it in the risk bucket. But functionally it’s already behaving like a parallel reserve ledger: it’s the only denominator that makes the post-2020 global economy look like Argentina.

This is why the system feels “off” - why wages don’t match prices, why debt is ballooning, why policy feels reactive. We’re in a regime where the unit of account is decaying faster than the public narrative can absorb. The Fed, the government, the media - all still speaking USD, all still benchmarking to a melting ice cube. The chart you’re looking at is the unofficial scoreboard in a silent currency war.

So when I strip all the polite commentary away, the honest take is:

•The U.S. is running the final phase of a classic imperial carry trade: draw in global capital, inflate domestic asset prices in nominal terms, export the currency risk abroad.

•Gold shows stagnation.

•Bitcoin shows collapse.

•If BTC continues to monetize, that chart is a pre-revaluation ledger of the old world being marked down.

This isn’t a normal market cycle. It’s the unit-of-account transition phase. And almost no one is positioned for it because they’re still measuring their “returns” in the wrong yardstick.

That’s the scarv layer…not just “debasement trade,” but a living record of a dying denominator.

[J Smith @JSmith191900]

@Tyler_Neville_ Only if your first topic is this tweet -lol

[J Smith @JSmith191900]

@TheCryptoCPA Lots of speculation in crypto community that Bezos has used at least some of his sales to buy BTC and his sales often precede significant price runs -

https://t.co/9s1QZwhfCH

[Bishal Nandi @LearnWithBishal]

RIP iPhone.

The Galaxy S25’s AI features just made the iPhone 16 look outdated.

Here are 10 insane things the Galaxy S25 can do that iPhone simply can't (Don’t miss #5)

[nic carter @nic_carter]

I really want you to savor the experience of voting tomorrow because if Blue wins it’s the last time you will ever do it

[The Factor Report @PeterLBrandt]

Chart of the day - Tesla $TSLA
A 3-month symmetrical triangle has now formed. The completion of this triangle will also complete a massive continuation diamond, similar in structure to the diamond completed in Costco $COST
Will outcome be similar???🌕🚀

[NBC Olympics & Paralympics @NBCOlympics]

STEPH WAS ICE COLD DOWN THE STRETCH. 🥶

Four three-pointers in TWO MINUTES AND 11 SECONDS to close out France for the gold medal. 🥇 #ParisOlympics

[Champagne Joshi @JoshWalkos]

BREAKING🚨🚨

A company called Austin Private Wealth LLC shorted 12,000,000 shares of $DJT via a put option. The filing date is July 12th, the day before the assassination attempt.

They have around $1 Billion in assets under management and this is by far the largest put placed. According to a source the trade represents 6% of total shares and over 16%! of the float of the stock given the fact that Trump owns 60% of the company.

This is a giant bet when you consider their total AUM but wait there’s more…

https://t.co/BZWWnNFrTX

[Brian Berletic @BrianJBerletic]

US Secret Service Failures

1. The huge American flag flying over Trump's head served as the ideal wind flag, indicating for a potential assassin wind speed and direction - such indicators are used on ALL military/security firing ranges, such indicators should have been prohibited by security;

2. All potential positions for an assassin were almost certainly assessed, video evidence suggests security had snipers pointed in their direction, but apparently access to them left unguarded.

If the audience saw the assassin moving into an obvious firing position, trained snipers with scopes certainly did;

It is difficult to believe the US Secret Service was so systematically incompetent.

[Mike Galsworthy @mikegalsworthy]

Jon Stewart, as always, sums it up beautifully.

[MJ @morganisawizard]

my 2024 debate drinking game, enjoy:

[Erik Voorhees @ErikVoorhees]

US govt declared Coinbase an illegal brokerage, and then proceeded to use Coinbase as its brokerage

[Larry Tentarelli, Blue Chip Daily @bluechipdaily]

A few years ago, I posted my top 5 trading books. I’ve had many requests since then for my next 5. This is my top 10 below, in order.

These are best suited for my mindset and timeframe. A few others, just outside of these 10.

[Joseph Wang @josephwang]

Global cutting cycle is starting. #Crashup

[J Smith @JSmith191900]

@ramahluwalia Btc Maxi’s:

https://t.co/MlJt1SMm8S