The Erosion of American Military Capacity
Why the US shows limited capacity in prolonged wars and in protecting its bases and allies, sending signals that should draw attention from Asian countries.
Benjamin Netanyahu did not only err in assessing Iranian capabilities; he also overestimated the American capacity to sustain him in a high-intensity conflict. Despite spending nearly US$ 1 trillion on defense, the United States today possesses an industrial and logistical base that is significantly inferior to what it had decades ago.
This fragility is the result of a long process of atrophy of the defense industrial base, which began after the end of the Cold War. In the 1990s, the Pentagon had 51 major prime contractors competing for significant contracts.
Today, only five giants remain: Lockheed Martin, RTX (formerly Raytheon), General Dynamics, Northrop Grumman, and Boeing. This extreme consolidation, nicknamed “The Last Supper,” drastically reduced competition and the capacity for large-scale production, sharply driving up prices.
It is the typical model of the Western defense industry that grows through mergers, acquisitions, and market contraction rather than through productive efficiency.
The numbers by segment are alarming. In the military aircraft sector, the number of suppliers fell from 8 in 1990 to just 3. In tactical missiles, around 90% of current production depends on only three sources. In the case of ground combat vehicles, there were 3 manufacturers in 1990; by 2020, only one remained: General Dynamics.
The specialized workforce has also shrunk: the defense sector has lost nearly 2 million skilled workers since 1985, falling from about 3 million to approximately 1.1 million.
Ammunition production reveals the same loss of “mass.” During the Cold War, American factories could produce up to 438,000 artillery shells per month under full wartime conditions.
Before the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, monthly production was only 14,400. Even after billions of dollars in investments, between 2024 and 2026 the capacity rose to something between 40,000 and 55,000 shells per month, still far from the target of 100,000.
The naval decline is equally worrying. In 1991, the US maintained 8 public naval shipyards; today only 4 remain (Portsmouth, Norfolk, Puget Sound, and Pearl Harbor), dedicated almost exclusively to maintenance and repairs, and not to new construction.
Private shipyards capable of building large ocean-going ships have decreased by more than 80% since the 1950s. Currently, the construction of large combat ships is concentrated in only seven main shipyards, controlled by a few companies.
Read the full article:
https://t.co/39rLV4Dpor
🚨 THEY BUILT THE ESCAPE ROUTE BEFORE THE CRIME 🚨
WHO LET TRUMP JR., JARED KUSHNER, AND THE WHITE HOUSE PROFIT OFF THE IRAN WAR?
Step 1. Donald Trump's DOJ dismantles the Public Integrity Section from 36 lawyers to 2. The unit created after Watergate to prosecute corrupt officials. Gone.
Step 2. Trump's DOJ cancels 159 federal enforcement actions against 166 companies. 30+ of those companies donated to Trump's inauguration or White House ballroom. Gone.
Step 3. Trump's DOJ drops its criminal investigation into Polymarket. The same Polymarket where Donald Trump Jr. sits on the advisory board and his venture capital firm 1789 Capital poured millions.
Step 4. Trump's CFTC drops its investigation into Polymarket. The same CFTC now controlled by Trump appointee Chairman Brian Quintenz.
Step 5. SEC Enforcement Division Director Margaret Ryan resigns after SEC Chair Paul Atkins and Republican political appointees block her from pursuing cases touching Trump, Elon Musk, and crypto mogul Justin Sun, a major backer of the Trump family's World Liberty Financial venture.
Step 6. Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff fly to Vienna for public peace talks while the strike date is known to a tiny circle in Washington and Tel Aviv.
Step 7. Pete Hegseth's Defense Department executes Operation Epic Fury on February 28, 2026.
Step 8. Six brand new Polymarket wallets, all created within 24 hours of the strike, bet on the exact date and walk away with $1.2 million. Account Magamyman turns $87,000 into $553,000 in 71 minutes. Accounts Planktonbet, Dicedicedice, and nothingeverhappens911 all cash out.
Step 9. Monday March 23, at exactly 6:49am New York time, $580 million in Brent crude and West Texas Intermediate oil futures trades in 60 seconds. $1.5 billion in S&P 500 E-mini futures moves simultaneously. 4 to 6 times larger than any other order at that moment. Fifteen minutes later Trump posts on Truth Social about productive conversations with Tehran.
Step 10. Senator Chris Murphy calls it mind-blowing corruption. Nobel laureate Paul Krugman calls it treason. The White House calls it baseless.
Every lock on the enforcement door, DOJ Public Integrity, CFTC oversight, SEC enforcement, was removed before the first bomb dropped. Before the first bet was placed. Before anyone with a badge could ask a single question.
Is this the most sophisticated government corruption architecture in modern American history or are you still calling it a coincidence?
Watch the full receipts breakdown 👇
"Trump in some respects is an unimportant figure. He is the frontman for overlapping criminal networks. It is those networks, working for decades, that need to be examined most."
https://t.co/Kflur1Yu4r
Also, may I say that I don’t agree with people saying ICE and CBP need “more training.” They’re doing exactly what this administration has trained them to—impose a reign of fear in blue cities. They don’t need more training. They need to be ripped up root and branch.
The safest thing for any American civilian to do at this point is to assume that every ICE or CBP agent you encounter is a pardoned violent January 6 insurrectionist with demonstrated homicidal urges toward those they disagree with politically and choose your actions accordingly.
@TempusDrums I was able to acquire these this year the sound is exceptional. Thank you for the craftsmanship you used to create them. Any chance there is a “15 or “16 anywhere in your closet?
@VividProwess Explain to me how they continue to elect Catholics after so many hundred of their children were violated by priests. (An equally ridiculous argument)
I just watched a video of Palestinian parents attempting to identify their missing children from a group of 80 mangled corpses that the Israelis tortured to death.
I think stuff like that has a lot more to do with rising antisemitism than me stating the obvious about the Israeli government and IDF.
And the AUDACITY of attempting to shame me or any American for taking jabs at a country that sucks up our resources for their mass slaughter campaigns and land grabs.
Eat a dick, Jon.
@BuffaloSabres Your team is unwatchable. Maybe it is true that good players don’t want to sign with Buffalo because of taxes and weather, but it certainly is true that they don’t come because they think the GM is incompetent.
What decade was the last one where we had a decent power play?
I don't think I'm exaggerating by saying that this truly is the US's Suez moment: Saudi Arabia just entered into a NATO-like alliance with Pakistan whereby "any attack on either country is an attack on both."
The symbolic is extraordinary: Saudi Arabia was in many ways THE poster child of US client states. If they no longer trusts American security guarantees, why should anyone else?
And of course the fact this actually happened and wasn't prevented by the U.S. is immensely telling in and of itself.
This has so many other consequences that it's almost too much to fathom:
- First of all, it means that Saudi Arabia now benefits from Pakistan's nuclear deterrence (and the deal does include nuclear: a senior Saudi Official told Al Jazeera that “this is a comprehensive defensive agreement that encompasses all military means”, https://t.co/90hWQUmTQm). Which means we now officially have two nuclear-backed blocs in the Middle East: US-Israel vs Pakistan-Saudi. Additionally, Pakistan explicitly rejects a "no first use" doctrine - meaning Saudi Arabia now has a protector willing to use nuclear weapons preemptively.
- Given that 81% of Pakistan's weapon imports come from China (https://t.co/ZCPNfZSodQ), it also means that Saudi Arabia just indirectly aligned itself with the Chinese military-industrial complex
- This effectively extends the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) to the Persian Gulf, protected by Pakistani nuclear weapons and Chinese military technology - creating a secure energy corridor from the Middle East to China that completely bypasses the Strait of Malacca
- The timing is probably no coincidence, just days after Israel's strike on Qatar, the ultimate proof of the worthlessness of US protection.
- Other Gulf states, and probably in due times other countries "protected" by the U.S., are likely to explore comparable models in the next few months. In fact this might lead to a cascading collapse of the U.S. global alliance system, leading to an entirely new international system where regional nuclear powers become security providers.
- Hard to see how that doesn't permanently kill any chance of Israel-Saudi normalization: Pakistan does not recognize Israel either and with this alliance the Saudis now can resist US pressure as they don't solely depend on them for their defense
- It puts India in an extremely tough spot: its archenemy just became the security guarantor for one its primary energy suppliers
- This undoubtedly kills IMEC (India-Middle East-Europe Economic Corridor), the Biden administration's flagship grand strategy to counter China's Belt and Road that was supposed to connect India to Europe via Saudi Arabia
- There is a monetary aspect too: this is another nail in the coffin of the petrodollar system (an agreement to price oil exclusively in USD in exchange for US protection). Saudi Arabia is now much more flexible to price oil in whatever currency it wishes
And this is just what's immediately visible. As a final word: if anyone had any remaining doubt that we were now in a multipolar world, that debate is now settled permanently. American global dominance is no more.
⚡️🇮🇱JUST IN: Israel’s Minister of Finance Bezalel Smotrich:
The Gaza Strip is becoming a real estate bonanza and the plan is on President Trump's desk
We paid a lot of money for the war, so we need to decide how to divide the percentages of the land in Gaza. The demolition phase is always the first phase of urban renewal. We did that, now we need to start building.
But the animal who murders thousands of Ukrainians every month should be welcomed on US soil, offered economic deals, and even chunks of Ukrainian territories.
Got it.
In the last few years we've seen:
- The plot to kidnap Gretchen Whitmer
- The Storming of the Capitol and pipe bombs left at the RNC and DNC
- The break-in to kidnap Nancy Pelosi and the brutal on Paul Pelosi
- Multiple assassination attempts against Trump
- The assassination of Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman and her husband and the shooting of on State Senator John Hoffman and his wife
- Luigi Mangione's assassination of Brian Thompson
- The assassination of Charlie Kirk
Political violence is contagious. It is spreading. It is not confined to one side or belief system. It should terrify us all.
The foundation of a free society is the ability to participate in it without fear of violence. Political violence is always an attack against us all. You have to be so blind not to see that.
@sentdefender Trump will try to cover the news cycle with this to bury the Epstein list. Thousands of Russians will die to take negative attention away from him.