Juan Wulff

Venezuelan - Harvard '29 - Data Science @VoteHub

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

🚨 LAUNCH — VoteHub’s 2026 Early Vote Tracker is LIVE.

Track ballot returns and, for the first time, see who we think is actually AHEAD right now, plus what the trailing candidate needs on Election Day to catch up.

Rolling out for every battleground Senate and governor race.

[Trip Gabriel @tripgabriel]

NYT's Nate Cohn:

A strong erosion of Trump's support with Hispanic voters imperils the party in more than a dozen districts Trump won by double digits, while cueing up Texas and Florida to "become ground zero for a possible Democratic tsunami"

https://t.co/4xixJn6Ut7

[Carlos Odio @carlosodio]

Based on my texts, I can’t tell who’s more nervous about polls like this one: Republicans or pollsters.

[Ryan McComb @ryanjmccomb]

Why we're watching Hispanic voters so closely at @VoteHub this cycle:

Hispanic voters in exit polls:
2018: D+40
2022: D+21
2024: D+9
2026: D+43 (NYT/Siena)

A Hispanic ballot is ~2x as likely to decide the House as a Black voter's, and 39% more likely than the avg American's.

[Juan Wulff @juanfwulff]

Read more in my latest piece (lots of fun graphs to take a look at): https://t.co/lVHYsnfEIR

[Juan Wulff @juanfwulff]

By far, Hispanic voters have the most Voting Power in deciding the makeup of the House.

VoteHub's VPI puts the average Hispanic voter's district at 0.71 against a national average of 0.51, a roughly 1 in 14 million chance a single ballot decides control of Congress.

[Juan Wulff @juanfwulff]

Read more in my latest piece (lots of fun graphs to take a look at): https://t.co/lVHYsnfEIR

[Juan Wulff @juanfwulff]

A large Hispanic swing back to Democrats could push Democrats way over a majority.

Post-redistricting, 7 of the 30 seats Trump won by ten points or less in 2024 are over 20% Hispanic. Three are rated competitive by VoteHub’s forecast and Democrats are favored in six.

[Juan Wulff @juanfwulff]

Rep. Maria Elvira Salazar's new ad breaking with Trump suggests Republicans in heavily Hispanic seats are nervous.

Her seat swung 14 points to Trump in 2024, but VoteHub rates it just Lean R. FL-27 is one of 13 seats Trump won narrowly in 2020 that are over 20% Hispanic.

[Zachary Donnini @ZacharyDonnini]

Hispanic voters could shape not just House control, but the size of a Dem majority. In TX and FL, big Hispanic gains could put GOP-drawn seats back in play and render parts of the new gerrymanders useless.

Give @juanfwulff a follow and check out his great piece!

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

NEW from @VoteHub: Hispanic voters have more power to shape U.S. House control than any other major demographic group in 2026. VoteHub Fellow @juanfwulff breaks down why.
https://t.co/gDGmUx68c7

[Juan Wulff @juanfwulff]

@ChuckRocha @SolidarityLLC Thanks for the shoutout!

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

Democrats’ path to a Senate majority runs through states Trump won by double digits. In our debut segment on CBS News’ “The Takeout,” @ZacharyDonnini explains why Democrats may need a substantial turnout advantage to break through in at least two of them.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

NEW from @ryanjmccomb: Which voters will have the most power over control of Congress this November?

VoteHub’s new 2026 Voter Power Index measures where a single ballot could have the greatest impact.

https://t.co/SWIODIw2G7

[Juan Wulff @juanfwulff]

Stefany Shaheen, the daughter of Senator, has defeated both Marine veteran Maura Sullivan and progressive Carleigh Beriot to win the nomination in NH-01. Shaheen is a Portsmouth native.

VoteHub’s forecast currently has Democrats with a 90.7% chance of winning this race.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

VoteHub projects Stefany Shaheen to win the Democratic primary for New Hampshire U.S. House District 1.

[Juan Wulff @juanfwulff]

Chris Pappas seems to be pulling away with the nomination and will most likely face John Sununu

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

New Hampshire U.S. Senate Democratic Primary

🔵 Chris Pappas – 14,520 (59.5%)
🔵 Karishma Manzur – 9,400 (38.6%)
🔵 David Jarvis – 134 (0.5%)

Votes from @AP

[Juan Wulff @juanfwulff]

Manzur is now losing momentum in Dover, a city she is expected to comfortably lead

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

New Hampshire U.S. Senate Democratic Primary

City of Dover:
🔵 : Karishma Manzur – 1,553 (51.9%)
🔵 : Chris Pappas – 1,400 (46.8%)
🔵 : Maxwell Saal – 15 (0.5%)

Votes From @DecisionDeskHQ

[Juan Wulff @juanfwulff]

Daniel Lander is now beating Senate President pro tempore Will Brownsberger, the chamber's second-ranking Democrat and a legislator since 2007, by 3 votes.

Lander, a former senior policy advisor to Mayor Michelle Wu, is endorsed by both Wu and Sen. Elizabeth Warren.

[Austin Park @austinjpark]

In Massachusetts's Suffolk and Middlesex district for State Senate, incumbent William Brownsberger trails by just three votes to Mayor Michelle Wu-backed Daniel Lander. The race remains too close to call and may head to a recount.

[VoteHub @VoteHub]

🚨🚨 INTRODUCING: VoteHub’s 2026 Campaign Tracker.

Follow the biggest battleground contests with candidate travel, events, interviews, schedules, and fundraising, all in one place.

First up: Iowa Governor.

Since the primary, @RobSandIA has held 104 events to @ZachLahn's 40.

[Juan Wulff @juanfwulff]

Markey only lost a notable part of his lead in the richest towns in Massachusetts.

He performed best in Western Mass at 69% and worst in Moulton's district at 56%. Everywhere else, income barely affected his share of the vote #mapoli

[Juan Wulff @juanfwulff]

Moulton only managed to beat Markey in the wealthy towns within his district.

However, around 64% of his votes came from towns that were neither rich nor in his district meaning he ultimately lost because he underperformed everywhere #mapoli