I’m skeptical that President Trump can secure a deal with Iran at this point in the war — I’ll explain why that is below, but let me first caveat my skepticism by reiterating: we don’t need to a deal to just declare victory and walk away. It’s the only way out of this mess in the short term that will deliver anything that looks like a win for the U.S.
Why can’t we reach a deal with Iran?
1. Iran believes they are winning—and they are not wrong to think they are. Iran is exploiting powerful leverage, which we delivered to them: closing the SOH has obviously significantly hindered the flow of oil/gas, putting massive pressure on us and the global economy.
Today, President Trump announced that the U.S. Navy has secretly escorted 200 oil tankers out of the SOH. While this is positive news and may have helped temper rising oil prices somewhat, the impact is not substantial enough to prevent a major energy crisis. These 200 tankers transiting the SOH over the past 100 days represent only about 2% of the normal volume—roughly 10,000 ships every 100 days—prior to the war. Furthermore, the U.S. has to deploy major naval and air assets to keep the SOH open. This is not sustainable and works to Iran’s advantage in the long run: Iran can disrupt commerce through the strait with relatively little effort, while the U.S. must risk two carrier battle groups simply to move 2% of the normal amount of oil and gas.
2. The Iranian hardliners have been emboldened and have no interest in reaching a deal. For years before the war, there was major tension between the moderates—who were open to dialogue with the U.S.—and the more militant factions of the Iranian government, primarily senior officers in the IRGC. At the outset of the war, we killed the leading moderate figure (moderate by Iranian standards), Supreme Leader Khamenei, along with several of his civilian counterparts like Ali Larijani. We’ve used the cover of peace talks as a ruse to launch attacks on Iran on two separate occasions. All of this bolstered the hardliners’ standpoint that we cannot be trusted in negotiations and that Iran had no choice but to fight.
3. Israel. Despite reports of tension between Bibi and Trump, the Israelis remain the spoiler of any progress towards a deal and prove it every time there are serious talks of peace. President Trump has made public statements urging Israel to show restraint, but has been ignored and, in many cases, outright defied. The Israelis consider any peace deal with Iran to be unacceptable and a major threat to their nation. Until President Trump takes away some U.S. military support from Israel, they will continue to sabotage any chance of a lasting peace.
I have twin boys. The image of this kid holding his dying brother in his arms fills me with grief and rage. If you feel no sympathy for Austin’s family then you are not human. You have no soul. In saner times we would exile you from society. You don’t deserve to live among us.
Secretary of War, Pete Hegseth gleefully announces that US central command will indeed be striking additional targets in Iran tonight.
As I pointed out yesterday, it doesn’t appear that anyone in the Pentagon or the White House are thinking about what comes next.
Just like Iran responded in kind after last night‘s US attack, we can count on them doing it again, hitting more American or Allied targets.
If we escalate the target list to hit energy infrastructure in Iran, we can expect to be losing energy infrastructure to Iranian counter strikes among our allies.
How does any of this help America?
This thoughtless escalation is antithetical to our interest, and will only deepen our strategic loss. It is anguishing to watch us fall apart, especially when it comes with such gleeful cheerleading like the secretary does here.
Here we go again; the House is going to debate a clean reauthorization of the unconstitutional FISA 702 program tonight.
This program is used to surveil Americans without a warrant.
I’ll be joining the @cspan debate on the floor in the next hour… in opposition to this madness.
Turkey 🇹🇷 has issued a final warning to Israel.
What follows will be a retaliatory response!
President Erdoğan stated:
"The attacks by Netanyahu and his criminal network against Syria and Lebanon have reached a stage where they threaten not only these two sister nations, but Turkey as well.
Turkey’s security does not begin at Hatay alone, but extends to Aleppo, Damascus, and Beirut.
We are fully aware of the ultimate goal of the ‘Greater Israel’ delusion.
And we will never allow that to happen.”
“It won’t get into your beef”- C Murph
Referring to the meat that you eat!
Y’all need to listen to those who deal with it and like I’ve said Calm Down!
The ranchers know more than any Senator in DC!🪓
Having been together for 50 years, with my amazing wife of 47 years... here is my advice to younger folk.
Find someone special, who is your best friend and jump in. Commit to being devoted.
If you chose wisely, you won't regret it - ever.