A great product without distribution is completely worthless.
Fact.
You spent a year building a piece of software that nobody asked for.
Now you're crying because your stripe dashboard is at absolute zero.
Marketing isn't a dirty word.
If you can't get eyeballs, your brilliant code doesn't mean sh*t.
Learn to sell or go back to a cubicle.
For my first post, I’m sharing a letter @NVIDIA signed on why open models matter.
AI will transform every industry, power every company, and be built by every country.
Open models strengthen safety and cybersecurity, accelerate innovation and diffusion, and enable sovereignty.
The world needs both frontier closed models and frontier open models.
https://t.co/AUKzoQ5Ikb
AI progress requires (1) compute, (2) algorithms, and (3) data.
- The leading compute company is worth $5 trillion.
- The leading model company is worth $1 trillion.
- @mercor is the leading data company and is currently valued orders of magnitude lower.
There's an opportunity in how the market is mispricing the value of data.
Data is the oil of the AI revolution. It is the primary way that models and enterprises build competitive advantages.
your comfort zone is a coffin.
if you are not slightly terrified on a daily basis, you are not growing.
borrow the money.
make the hire.
sign the lease.
put your back against the wall.
you will be amazed at what you can do when failure is not an option.
"I'm waiting for the perfect time to start."
Translation.
"I am terrified of failing."
There is no perfect time.
The economy will always be weird.
Interest rates will always fluctuate.
Action cures fear.
Just launch the ugly website.
if you’re 23 years old and you’re in search for “work life balance”
here is the newssss:
1. you likely have zero leverage and absolutely no skills.
2. the market does not care about your boundaries.
Companies will spend more on tokens than they do salaries very soon.
Application layer companies have no defensibility, the model is the product.
Hiring researchers will cost you tens of millions of dollars today.
Everything you think you know about defensibility, token spend, labour displacement, will be changed following this discussion.
I condensed the core ideas which changed my thinking from my conversation with @BrendanFoody at @mercor below.
1. Why Frontier AI Labs Could Become $10TN Companies
Critics once questioned whether foundation model labs could keep pricing power in a competitive market. Their revenue velocity now suggests the opposite. The opportunity around leading frontier models is so large that it could absorb a major share of macro demand. At least one AI lab may become a $10TN company within five years.
2. The Capacity Bottleneck: Demand Doubling Overnight
For top infrastructure and data providers, growth is no longer limited by customer acquisition. It is limited by execution. Demand is scaling so fast that leading companies could double revenue overnight if they had enough capacity. The challenge now is how quickly they can mobilize specialized human networks and build high-fidelity environments for enterprise demand.
3. Why Forward Deployment Will Determine True Value Creation
Defensibility in the software layer is getting harder because the model itself is becoming the product. True value creation will come from post-sales forward deployment, not pre-sales GTM. The durable edge is training agents on tacit customer knowledge and layering automated services on top of software.
4. Is the Stated Revenue Really Revenue or GMV?
The stated revenue is not GMV because the talent network is only one part of a vertically integrated value chain. Customers buy complete tasks for model improvement, not simple marketplace listings. With 30% to 40% gross margins, the business owns the full lifecycle, from sourcing experts to deploying AI project managers and running quality checks.
5. The Inversion of Corporate Opex: Token Spend vs. Salaries
In high-growth AI companies, token spend for internal agents has already surpassed employee headcount costs. As operations, interviewing, accounting, and fraud detection move to agents, capital allocation shifts from salaries to inference compute.
6. Why Token Spend Inside Companies Will Keep Increasing
Driven by Jevons Paradox, enterprise token consumption will keep rising as models improve and costs fall. Companies will use more compute to unlock higher-order reasoning, not less. F500s are responding by building evaluation systems that let them hot-swap models and optimize inference budgets.
7. The Tens of Millions Talent War for AI Researchers
The market for top AI researchers is severely supply constrained, with demand far above available talent. Companies are offering compensation packages worth tens of millions in stock per year to secure elite researchers. This wage spike shows that world-class research talent remains the core bottleneck in AI.
(links below)
Don't join a company or industry that has contempt for its customers. You can make a lot of money that way, and of course it gives you a feeling of superiority, but you'll never do great work for a market you despise.