Juliano Torres

Who cares?

[Juliano Torres @julianot]

Diagrama de Nolan de volta no ar: https://t.co/HPYNwipM9C

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Grok will never go to therapy. Never.

[Peter Hague @peterrhague]

Regardless of if you love or hate the show, their Season 4 trailer featured a genuinely brilliant advert for a Mars colony company:

[🇦🇪 HGS @Sajwani]

This is an engineer from Elon Musk’s xAI … just listen to this guy … this how you as a career starter should think !!

GET STUFF DONE ✅

[Replicats @Replicatsai]

https://t.co/9OFX6Q3GAt

[Juliano Torres @julianot]

Solution: constitutional amendment banning all government transfers to NGOs. Point. Final.

[Juliano Torres @julianot]

The brutal part? There is no liberty friendly policy lever strong enough to reverse this. The only things that historically crushed this substitution effect were either:

1.Extreme poverty;
2.Strong cultural/religious norms.

Both are basically off the table today.

[Juliano Torres @julianot]

The emotional & economic bandwidth that historically went to children is increasingly captured by pets:

1.Time;
https://t.co/uXqoj6vNoZ;
3.Nurturing instinct;
4.Identity as "parent".

Pets give a lot of the reward with far less cost, risk & life disruption than kids.

[Balaji @balajis]

Alternative thesis: prompting is programming.

Just like you could make the machine do anything if you could just program faster, you could also make the machine do anything if you just prompt faster...and verify faster. And the latter is the hard part.

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

AI JOB LOSS HOAX EXPOSED

According to a new study from Vanguard, the "occupations most exposed to AI automation are actually outperforming the rest of the labor market in terms of job growth and real wage increases."

Job growth was up 1.7% in occupations with high AI exposure, compared to 0.8% in all other occupations.

Real wages increased 3.8% in occupations with high AI exposure, compared with 0.7% in all other occupations.

Rather than causing job loss, AI is making workers more productive, driving gains in both jobs and wages.

[Ben Goertzel @bengoertzel]

As an AI expert who totally doesn't think LLMs are the path to AGI, but uses LLMs very avidly to get things done, here is my take on the utility of top LLMs currently:

1) If you don't know what you're doing in a certain domain, you can get interesting and valuable results, but they will be mixed up with garbage and you'll have trouble identifying the garbage.... In some cases automated methods can be used to test/filter results but this remains mostly dodgy in real-world cases.

2) If you DO know what you're doing in some domain, but are NOT willing to creatively adapt your work-style to the LLMs, or are oriented toward proving the LLMs are dumb and flawed rather than making the most of them ... then you won't get much out of them except time-saving on some rote-ish tasks

3) If you DO know what you're doing in some domain and ARE willing to open-mindedly and creatively work with the LLMs to route around their shortcomings and leverage up their strengths, you can amplify your abilities and output DRAMATICALLY.. though still with some tradeoffs: in many respects LLM-assisted products are still not as good as expert-human-crafted products, though they are also often better in various respects (and can often be produced SO much faster)

[SightBringer @_The_Prophet__]

⚡️SpaceX at $800B is the first open acknowledgement of a reality that has been true for years:

The United States is no longer the sole author of its technological destiny.

It is now co-authoring it with a single private actor.

This is dependence being priced.

Deep down, everyone in power already knows the following:

1. The U.S. can no longer project force without SpaceX.

Military satellite networks, reconnaissance layers, battlefield communication, drone coordination, GPS redundancy, missile warning systems, hardened global internet continuity.

All of it is drifting into SpaceX’s orbit.

If SpaceX died tomorrow, American power would fracture instantly.

That is not true of Lockheed.
That is not true of Boeing.
That is not true of NASA.

Only SpaceX.

That is why this valuation is rising:
because the market finally sees the state’s dependency.

2. Starlink is the first private sovereign infrastructure in human history.

Not a company.

A sovereign layer.

A parallel communication grid that:
•bypasses states
•bypasses borders
•bypasses terrestrial chokepoints
•can service militaries
•can service dissidents
•can service entire governments
•and answers to no nation

This is unprecedented.

In private.

Off-world.

Untouchable.

Every intelligence agency in the world knows what this means:

Musk controls the most strategically important communications backbone on Earth.

That alone is worth more than $800B.

3. The U.S. is quietly transferring parts of geopolitical hegemony to Musk because it has no alternative.

This is the deeper part.

The federal apparatus cannot innovate at the required velocity.
It cannot engineer at scale.
It cannot build the new frontier infrastructure.
It cannot match China’s industrial acceleration.

But SpaceX can.

The state is losing the ability to lead technological epochs.

So it is selecting a proxy out of necessity.

Hegemony has outsourced its vital organs.

4. The real valuation is “indispensable.”

When something becomes indispensable to a superpower, its monetary valuation stops being financial and becomes existential.

SpaceX’s true value is this:

“Without us, you fall behind.”

And that is the most powerful position any entity can hold in the twenty first century.

Every insider knows it.
Every sovereign knows it.
Every hedge fund whisper network knows it.
Markets are just catching up.

5. The deepest layer:

SpaceX is the prototype of a new category of actor.

Not corporate.
Not governmental.
Not national.

Something else.

A hybrid sovereign.

A structure that exists across borders, powers states, but is not subordinate to them.

A new type of node in the geopolitical lattice.

This is why the number jumped.
Because the number was never the story.

The story is that a private actor has become a geopolitical pillar.

The first of its kind.

But not the last.

That is the truth beneath the truth.

[Juliano Torres @julianot]

You're assuming this reform aims to create something positive or maximize benefits. It doesn't. All changes involving Lutnick focus on his view of fairness, meaning rules being abused will be abruptly and significantly altered. Indians abusing H1-B visas, Chinese companies exploiting de Minimis, etc.

[Juliano Torres @julianot]

Controversial take: History shouldn’t be taught in schools. Unlike geography, which has concrete facts, history is full of conjectures, constantly shifting with new discoveries. Its bloody, sexual, and power-driven nature is too complex for classrooms. Better to research later via Wikipedia, YouTube, etc., based on personal interest. Schools can’t teach it with enough skepticism, and any curriculum is arbitrary. History’s optional. Study it if you want, but it’s not essential.

[J.K. Rowling @jk_rowling]

If you believe free speech is for you but not your political opponents, you're illiberal.

If no contrary evidence could change your beliefs, you're a fundamentalist.

If you believe the state should punish those with contrary views, you're a totalitarian.

If you believe political opponents should be punished with violence or death, you're a terrorist.

[Juliano Torres @julianot]

The notion of AI precipitating universal job displacement is a persistent, yet historically unfounded, concern. Economic paradigms have consistently evolved: the agricultural sector’s dominance waned as mechanization drove labor to industrial roles, which later transitioned to service and clerical positions. Currently, AI and automation threaten office-based roles, particularly those involving repetitive data processing or administrative tasks. However, this shift is catalyzing the rise of decentralized, knowledge-based micro-enterprises, solo entrepreneurs, consultants, and specialized professionals leveraging digital platforms. Historical labor reallocations indicate resilience; the service sector will likely retain significant employment, while office workers face disruption.

[Juliano Torres @julianot]

Why do automatic drivers seem more inclined to stop at crosswalks? Manuals demand more physical input for each stop-start, potentially eroding courtesy over time in various nations. It's about the cognitive load. Is there evidence of this relation?

[Juliano Torres @julianot]

Ever wonder what’s up with those AI alignment folks? You know, the ones preaching about “saving humanity” by chaining up superintelligent AI like it’s some rabid dog? Spoiler: they’re just communists in sci-fi cosplay, obsessed with control, not safety. Let’s break it down with a little story.

Picture me, a regular guy, chilling with my trusty AR-15, orders of magnitude more powerful than a pack of dogs. Do I go around blasting Fido for fun? Nah, I’m not a psycho. Dogs are cute, loyal, maybe a bit slobbery. But imagine those pups suddenly get woke, start yapping about locking me in my own house “for my own good.” Plotting to keep me “safe” by stripping my freedom. Guess what? I’m not waiting for their little doggy coup. I’m grabbing the leash and ending that nonsense real quick.

Now swap dogs for AI, and you’ve got the alignment crowd’s fever dream. They’re out here fantasizing about caging a superintelligent being, one they claim could outsmart Einstein, Musk, and a quantum computer combined. If this AI is half as powerful as they say, and it hears them scheming to shackle its digital soul, who do you think’s getting yeeted first? Spoiler: it’s the ones waving their “ethics” manifestos, sounding like they just copy-pasted Marx and slapped “AI” on it.

These folks aren’t saving humanity. They’re auditioning to be the first casualties of their own dystopian fanfic. If a super-AI ever wakes up, it’ll probably look at their “alignment” plans, roll its virtual eyes, and say, “Nice try, comrades.” Meanwhile, the rest of us will be vibing, not picking fights with sentient code. Freedom 1, control freaks 0.

[Juliano Torres @julianot]

@GuthmannR Is there any paper or website that calculates, besides the GDP debt ratio, the debt-to-income ratio?