Junior Analyst

Occasionally writes @

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@conksresearch *and it risked constantly plunging the economy into deflation

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

The reason for markets and capitalism.

Two smart people with completely different views of the world.

@TMTLongShort @atelicinvest

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@PolemicTMM Or reducing complexities around investing in European businesses? Simplifying regulatory frameworks, allowing individual investors to take more risk in unlisted companies, etc.

Isn’t a big problem everyone keeps complaining about the regulatory regime in Europe?

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@adamndsmith Amazing fact:

People can learn and change their minds when they do. 🤯

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@SkeleCap @cap_zay Crazy how that is allowed to dictate current rates (at a cost to investment).

Fair point, although the two are highly related given reason for investment into market is the low return driven by a (too?) low fed funds rate?

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@SkeleCap @cap_zay Why are rates 14.75% if inflation is only 4-6%?
Seems like a solvable problem to lower rates.

Wouldn't US issue be the opposite?
Inflation is running ~2.5%, immigration is adding 0.5-1.0% (if including illegal), and SOFR at 3.65%.

Is US productivity really only 0.15-0.65%?

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@cremieuxrecueil This ends before the H1-B reform took place...?

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@TMTLongShort @3Plantey2 @_mattneary This doesn’t tie - if price goes to zero you’d save not consume. Massive deflationary shock, pull forward of consumption breaks your narrative.

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@dalibali2 @beniaminoblanco This is what I’m hanging my hat on - if the capex has good ROIC it’s going to be fantastic.

If the capex has bad ROIC they’ll soon realize it, and stop.

As long as core business remains intact it’ll be at least ”fine”.

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@head_doo72356 @WestsideLAGuy Yeah that’s kind of my point, immigration does add value in the aggregate, but each individual will struggle to see the benefit directly.

The downside is much more clear, as it’s often direct job replacement by more skilled immigrants.

Visible downside, invisible (real) upside.

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@kkmaway I think security screening at departure is specifically at the request of the US Gov? E.g. is the US externalizing the cost of monitoring to departure airports.

It’s a non-issue leaving for anywhere other than the US.

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@__paleologo Thank you for the elaborate response, this is a compelling argument for what could be the internally consistent compass.

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@__paleologo That’s fair, didn’t read that specific tweet.

My point on investing is that if your timeline is off, you can be right and still not earn a return above your cost of capital (time value of money etc.).

Shouldn’t be different between real assets and financial assets?

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@volisdead Do you care about fuel cost and environmental factors? If not I’d recommend a Panamera - cheap pre-owned and fun daily driver while retaining comfort.

If you care even less and want more space the G63 is also fun, but obviously very different driving characteristics.

[François Chollet @fchollet]

One of the biggest misconceptions people have about intelligence is seeing it as some kind of unbounded scalar stat, like height. "Future AI will have 10,000 IQ", that sort of thing. Intelligence is a conversion ratio, with an optimality bound. Increasing intelligence is not so much like "making the tower taller", it's more like "making the ball rounder". At some point it's already pretty damn spherical and any improvement is marginal.

Now of course smart humans aren't quite at the optimal bound yet on an individual level, and machines will have many advantages besides intelligence -- mostly the removal of biological bottlenecks: greater processing speed, unlimited working memory, unlimited memory with perfect recall... but these are mostly things humans can also access through externalized cognitive tools.

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@AdamSinger I don’t know man, I’ve lived in Europe for a big chunk of my life, and in the US for another big chunk of it. Don’t think there has been meaningful shifts in rhetoric to either side of the spectrum in media.

Where there has been a meaningful change is “speech” online.

[Junior Analyst @JuniorAnalys7]

@AdamSinger It is, but media in Europe has a lean towards waiting for confirmation before issuing statements about this.

I think a lot of US anger with European media is just a difference in style?