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@JellyCrypto 성일광교수님은 트럼프가 이스라엘 몰래 이란이랑 접촉중이라고 Ben Caspit 이 보도했다는데 (이스라엘어라 잘 못찾겠) 비트나 다른 자산들도 다시 빠지더라도 어느정도 되돌림 또는 속도둔화는 가능하지 않을까 하는 희망 섞인... 암튼 오늘 자료도 감사드립니다!
🚨 Every Market. Same Short.
CTAs just hit a 2.9 standard deviation short on SPX futures, the most extreme positioning in 3 months.
One month ago CTAs were long at +0.44. The vol-targeting models picked up the regime change and mechanically reversed. This selling isn't discretionary. It's algorithmic, and it won't stop until realized vol compresses below the lookback window.
> Crowded commodity longs:
· Sugar 100th pctile
· Brent 90th pctile
· Cotton 90th pctile
> Bonds also max short: 10Y at -2.19 (z=-2.64) — full curve short
> Gold CTAs long at +0.82 (z=-2.23)
Analyzed by Radon · https://t.co/c42hFpjHgE
@JellyCrypto 감삼돠 현재 중동 지정학적 상황이 너무 유동적이니 크립토옵션 고래들이라도 모든 정보가 있진 않지 않을까 하는... 어제 좀 상황종료되나 싶었는데 일단 전 rates쪽으로 집중하고 있습니다 (제 주전장이기도 하고) MrVix 님도 가끔 올려주시던데 Move index가 간만에 폭발중이라
@dgt10011 Contextualizing this against the 2022–2024 highs, we aren't at peak exhaustion yet. However, the lack of mean reversion in implied vol may suggest more room to run. The 'scary' part isn't where we are, but how much convexity is left to be priced in.
@dgt10011 We need a cftc cot report type client group segregation in crypto too, "real-time" as we can take advantage of our onchain data starting from Deribt options (Not 100% sure that would improve my trading profits tho 🤔)