Just Brody

Love living life and enjoy the outdoors, family, life, investing, and dogs. God created all of this go out and discover it.

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@Torrents99 Exactly. The timing matters a lot. A higher yield environment can be manageable for a while, but if it becomes structural, the market eventually has to adjust to a different cost of capital.

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@Pennyfleamarket I've already followed you, and it's been a pleasure chatting with you. It would be great if we could exchange ideas.

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@Pennyfleamarket I agree that the debt issue wasn’t created overnight, and fixing it won’t be easy. For me, the focus is staying invested but keeping enough dry powder so I’m not forced to sell when volatility hits.

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@pwguler Exactly, that’s where the debate gets interesting. A company can look great on the income statement while the market is still questioning the cash flows. The discount rate makes that gap matter a lot more.

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@Pennyfleamarket Yeah, I think AI and energy are the wild cards there. Massive productivity gains could change the whole equation, but we’d need to actually see the gains show up in tax revenue before the math really changes.

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@mtp53w Yeah, I get what you’re saying. Fiscal policy can push the economy around pretty hard, but the bond market still has a way of pricing the consequences. I think that tension between growth and the cost of funding is the interesting part.

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@Native_M2 @MattFutrelle

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@ReaderPhx Yeah, AI capex is definitely the wildcard here. If companies keep spending aggressively through 2028/29, it could keep the economy running hotter than expected. The question is when the returns start catching up.

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@mtp53w Yeah, that’s an important distinction. The Fed controls the policy rate, but the bond market still has a say in where longer-term yields settle. Capital flows can push that equilibrium around even if the Fed isn’t directly setting it.

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@MrMacroEc Glad we're on the same page. Always open to hearing your takes. Followed you，hope you’ll followed back so we can keep the dialogue going!

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@mxltn1 Yeah, too many variables to call it. I’d just keep an eye on inflation, jobs and the 10-year. Those three probably tell us more than trying to guess the Fed’s intentions.

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@MrMacroEc Yeah, that’s why I keep watching the 10-year. If deficits stay this large, the bond market eventually has to price in more risk. At some point that starts changing the whole risk-reward picture for equities too.

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@ReaderPhx Yeah, the debt-service side is definitely something I’m watching. Higher rates can work their way through mortgages, business credit and municipal financing pretty quickly. The bigger question for me is how high long-term yields can stay before the economy starts pushing back.

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@OfficialTrollX The refinancing timeline seems like the key variable here. If the average rate only moves gradually as debt rolls over, what would actually force the market to price the entire Treasury curve toward 10%?

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@mtp53w That’s the key distinction. If inflation erodes the real value of existing debt, how much do you think that offsets the higher rates on newly issued debt?

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@mxltn1 Yeah, that’s the interesting part. If the Fed keeps tightening and equity returns compress, do you think 5% Treasuries become attractive enough to trigger a real rotation out of stocks?

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@pwguler That makes sense. If multiples compress before yields really blow out, do you think earnings growth can offset some of that valuation pressure?

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@Torrents99 Yeah, I think the refinancing timeline is the part that matters most. If higher yields stay elevated for years, how much of the current debt stock do you think eventually gets repriced at those higher rates?

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@MrMacroEc The debt growth is the part I’m watching too. If long-term yields stay elevated while deficits remain this large, how long do you think the market can absorb the extra issuance without demanding an even bigger premium?

[Just Brody @justbrodynl]

@ReaderPhx What part of the agenda do you think has actually been derailed so far, versus just facing the normal resistance that comes with big policy changes?