JustFinCharts

Just providing financial charts and musings about stocks and markets. Just a fan.

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

We don’t have Vanda’s retail series but we can use SMH as the proxy to see how it performs over the next year after seeing drawdown of 2 sd:

After 9 cold spells (dense 2017–22), SMH is up 7 of 9 times over the next year.

The median is up +13%.

Not the longest time series but it's interesting to see.

Observational.
Not financial advice.

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

@themotleyfool $NFLX, $MELI & $TSLA

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

@StockSavvyShay @FuturumEquities @StockMarketNerd Since you stacked these across the Deep Dive, figured it would be fun to see their performance YTD versus 3-year.

NBIS has just been killing it on both time frames. Too bad I miss this one.

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

Pulled the last three defended touches of that resistance: Nov 1980, Jul 2000, and Nov 2021.

What was the performance of growth and value in the next 12 months?

Nov 1980: Growth -6.6% / Value +16.4%.
Jul 2000: Growth -35.2% / Value +2.4%.
Nov 2021: Growth -21.8% / Value +5.3%.

Looks like value outperformed 3 out of 3 times this happened in this 1-year time frame, although its a small sample size.

*1980 = Ken French large G/V proxy
2000/2021 = IVW/IVE

Not investment advice.

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

@joinyellowbrick Thought it'd be interesting to put up the 3-year performance for fintech and payments cos along w/ Klarna. Maybe reversion is coming

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

@bespokeinvest Energy has been on a run. Look at the amazing 5-year performance of these companies

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

@Barchart Rising 10Y doesnt automatically crush stocks. Looked at 16 trough-to-peak rises of about 100bp or more since 1962, S&P finished higher in 13 of 16.

The soft ones mostly started with yields already at 4%+. High-start: 5 of 8 up, average about +6%. Low-start: 8 of 8 up.

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

You know that September is historically the worst month.

On the S&P since 1950 it averages about -0.6% and finishes higher only ~45% of the time.

Let's narrow down the results if we do:
- Green August month +2.6%
- YTD gains of between 10-15% (12% so far this yr)

There's been 8 times since 1950 this has happened.

In those years September was basically a coin flip. Up 4 of 8, median about +1%.

Not the dump month story. Not a slam dunk either.

What actually stood out was the rest of the year. Sep through Dec was higher in 7 of those 8, average about +5.5%.

Not financial advice.

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

@realroseceline Excited for the release!

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

@realroseceline You seem to like easy to understand businesses. Thoughts on $TXRH or $CASY?

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

Heatmap of the sectors in the past week, 1, 3, 6 month, and YTD performance.

Some notes:

- Energy killing it this year on most all times frames
- Financials slow to start but gradually breaking out
- Healthcare has been a great place to hide
- Tech has done well as a whole but software and semis are taking turns outperforming
- Materials is a sneaky outperform

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

@realroseceline Good post. Conviction is so tough. Management team competence and consistent company outperformance helps with convincing myself on that

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

Who actually bought back the most of themselves this past year?

Looked at who actually retired the most of their own share count (S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100).

% of shares repurchased:

Gartner retired 16.6% of itself
Salesforce 13.6%
Charter 12.7%
Synchrony 12.5%
PayPal 10.5%

Apple spent the most dollars and only shrank 1.7%. Nvidia 0.8%.

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

Who actually bought back the most of themselves this past year?

Looked at who actually retired the most of their own share count in both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq-100 in percentage terms of their total float in the past year.

Gartner retired 16.6% of itself
Salesforce 13.6%
Charter 12.7%
Synchrony 12.5%
PayPal 10.5%

By absolute dollar amount, Apple spent the most dollars and only shrank 1.7%. Nvidia 0.8%.

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

@AtlasShrug1 Long $TW short $OKLO

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

@tbpn Their staff must own a ton of NVDA shares.

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

Did the fintech kids actually take share from the banks this year?

This year fintech did not take share as a group.
Banks +9.3%
Fintech -4.7%
Block is the one that ran, +28%.
Citi and BofA beat the index. SoFi is -31%

Over three years it flips.
Robinhood +888%
Affirm +333%
Fintech sleeve +247% vs banks +167% vs the S&P +80%

This year its the banks. The three year tape is Robinhood and Affirm.

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

@realroseceline Love hearing your thoughts on companies and investing. Thank you Rose

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

@DrewCohenMoney Looking forward to this!

[JustFinCharts @justfincharts]

How are travel names doing?

Looked at hotels, airlines, cruises, booking apps this year and the 3-year period.

This year $ABNB is the one that ran +36%.
$DAL and $MAR just ahead of the S&P.
$BKNG is actually red.
Equal weight the group is +9% vs the S&P +14%.

Over three years:
$EXPE +199%
$RCL +198%
$UAL +128%
$AAL is still red on both.

So this year its Airbnb. The three year tape is Expedia and the cruise ship. Planes are mixed.

Not financial advice.