Sam

📖 I get Claude to read 500-page IPO docs so you don't have to
📉 My portfolio keeps me humble
🤳 Samir Arora survived a selfie with me
⚠️ Not SEBI registered ·

[Sam @juststox]

📌 New here? Here's what @juststox is about.
📊 Market commentary — no noise, just facts
😅 Humour, because my portfolio demands it
📄 Pages distilled into tweets
🚨Not SEBI registered. Not financial advice.

[Sam @juststox]

@ashumadan4 The watch everyone aspired to now contributes less than 10% of Titan's revenue 📊

Tanishq quietly became the real business while the nostalgia stayed with the watch.

[Sam @juststox]

@BaluGorade Domestic SIP inflows crossed ₹26,000 crore/month in 2026 📊

The bull case isn't just foreign capital rotating in — India is buying India too.

[Sam @juststox]

@BaluGorade 4.3% CAGR before fees 📊
A typical PMS charges ~2% annually.
Net return to the investor: ~2.3%.

Meanwhile a fixed deposit quietly sat at 6.5%.

[Sam @juststox]

🇸🇬 Singapore home services ($4 Bn):
🧖 85–90% driven by beauty/wellness and part-time maids
📱 20–25% book online (CY2024)
❄️ AC: annual contracts, 3–4 visits/year
📉 DIY declining. Professionals preferred.
🧐 More organized than India today.

[Sam @juststox]

40% of 🇦🇪 UAE households book home services online.

🇮🇳India: 2%.

Same service. Millions of Indians 👪on both sides of the equation.

Indian companies are now following the money — straight to the Gulf. 🌍

Thread 👇

[Sam @juststox]

🇦🇪 UAE: 40–45% booked home services online (CY2024)
🇮🇳 India: ~2%
👥 Same service. Large Indian diaspora on both sides.
📊 UAE is 20x more digital on home services.
⏳ What works in Dubai gets tested in Delhi a decade later.

[Sam @juststox]

⛔️Electronic door lock install: complex.
⛔️ Post-install service: critical.
💚 Consumer trust: essential.

❓Who has the edge?

🤠The company already coming to your home to fix your AC.

💰₹19–20 Bn market by FY2030P. Starting from near zero.

[Sam @juststox]

Most Indian homes use the same door lock design from 30 years ago. 🔐

Electronic door locks are changing that — and fast.

4 data points on India's fastest-growing home security category. Thread 👇

[Sam @juststox]

🔒 Electronic door lock penetration (FY2025):
🇮🇳 India: <0.3%
🇺🇸 US: ~16%
🇨🇳 China: ~18%
🇦🇪 UAE: ~7%
📈 India is 53x behind the US
🧐 Early innings. Not late cycle.

[Sam @juststox]

🧑‍🔧Home services platforms repair ACs, washing machines, geysers at scale.

🧑‍🔧They know when filters clog and membranes fail.

🧑‍🔧This service knowledge → a natural edge in designing water purifiers.

🥼The service business is also the R&D lab.

[Sam @juststox]

Less than 10% of Indian households own a water purifier. 💧

Not because they can't afford it — the category is still very young.

5 data points on where this market is headed.
Thread👇

[Sam @juststox]

Most buyers focus on the cost to purchase a water purifier.

Prospectus data point:
💡Cumulative servicing cost over its lifetime EXCEEDS the initial purchase price.

🪛Service needed every 6–12 months.

💰Service is the real market. Not the device.

[Sam @juststox]

The lesson isn't that HDFC Life disappointed.

It's that price paid matters as much as business quality.

Nifty returned 10.7% CAGR over 9 years.
HDFC Life (the stock): 8.9%.

A great business bought at a stretched multiple still underperforms the index. #Investing #IPO

[Sam @juststox]

HDFC Life's Embedded Value grew 5x in 9 years. 19.5% CAGR.

The business delivered. Stock returned 8.9% CAGR — underperformed Nifty. Why?

IPO P/EV: 4.7x. Today P/EV: 1.9x. Business did its job. Entry valuation didn't. 📊

[Sam @juststox]

Then why did the stock return just 8.9% CAGR?

One number.
P/EV multiple.

IPO (Nov 2017): 4.7x Embedded Value
Today (May 2026): 2.1x Embedded Value

The business grew 5x.
The market paid 2.3x more for it.

Valuation compression ate the compounding.📉
#HDFCLife #Valuation