Long thread alert, this is a very personal story. If you see it please RT.
One day, you are out with friends and you receive a call that your 69-year-old dad, a retired surveyor, has been arrested for murder.
@kckorir@Kianangih Makes sense, thereโs some serious changes that ought to be made in 2027. When the leadership class is serious private companies also pull up their socks. We are getting 44 per litre in Nyeri and I thought we are being exploited
@EkiciHosee@JILLKUI@Sanga_JK There are stats that speak to this - donโt generalize it. Central has the least reelection rates https://t.co/Ah5qjrk0Mh
How often do Kenyans re-elect MPs and politicians, and does this affect the development outcomes of those counties and regions?
We created a re-election index based on election data from 1988 to 2022. The index ranges from 0 - 1.
Constituencies with a higher reelection index closer to 1 had a greater bias for incumbents and reelected MPs at a higher rate than those with indices closer to 0. The county index is the average of all its constituencies' indices.
Region-wise, the North and Northwestern regions reelected MPs at the highest rates. Overall, West Pokot and Narok had the highest MP reelection rates in the whole country.
By province, Western had the highest reelection index of 0.389, while Central had the lowest with an index of 0.256.
Central Kenya and the North Eastern region had very low reelection indices, meaning MPs and politicians from these regions were reelected at lower rates, and incumbents rarely enjoyed any privileges.
Does our reelection index affect development? We checked whether there was any relationship with our Basic Access Index (which tracks county access to essential infrastructure like piped water, electricity, and sanitation). The correlation is modest at -0.34, meaning counties with high reelection indices had lower levels of access to basic infrastructure. However, the effect isn't very big, and our model only explained 9% of the variance between counties. What do you think? Would counties develop more if they change leaders often?
Here's a full list of the counties based on the County Reelection Index (CRI):
1. West Pokot 0.573
2. Narok 0.535
3. Kajiado 0.458
4. Turkana 0.451
5. Samburu 0.444
6. Kisumu 0.440
7. Vihiga 0.431
8. Tharaka-Nithi 0.431
9. Baringo 0.424
10. Busia 0.417
11. Machakos 0.417
12. Trans Nzoia 0.408
13. Marsabit 0.406
14. Mombasa 0.396
15. Migori 0.396
16. Siaya 0.396
17. Bungoma 0.384
18. Kitui 0.380
19. Isiolo 0.375
20. Lamu 0.375
21. Taita Taveta 0.375
22. Elgeyo-Marakwet 0.365
23. Garissa 0.361
24. Kakamega 0.360
25. Homa Bay 0.359
26. Bomet 0.358
27. Meru 0.355
28. Nairobi 0.338
29. Kisii 0.337
30. Kwale 0.333
31. Nakuru 0.330
32. Tana River 0.319
33. Kirinyaga 0.292
34. Makueni 0.292
35. Nyandarua 0.292
36. Laikipia 0.278
37. Murang'a 0.274
38. Uasin Gishu 0.271
39. Wajir 0.264
40. Nandi 0.250
41. Kiambu 0.243
42. Embu 0.240
43. Nyamira 0.240
44. Kilifi 0.231
45. Nyeri 0.208
46. Kericho 0.188
47. Mandera 0.146