Jacob Walker

Investing the modern economy - Start-up tweeting inevitable. News and NatSec Junkie. Slava.

[The Reagan Caucus @NewReaganCaucus]

Tweet of the day.

[Andrew Desiderio @AndrewDesiderio]

SCOOP: The State Dept told Congress *yesterday* that Iran’s oil exports are a primary revenue source for terrorism financing—just hours after U.S. & Iran signed MOU that includes oil sanctions relief, and as Trump is downplaying Iran’s illicit behavior

https://t.co/vpUmBqKKmK

[Jacob Walker @jvhwalker]

No…we wanted you not to start a war that both killed a bunch of Iranians AND made us give their regime a ton of power and money while making our nation look like idiots

Now we’re just mad at you for forcing us to take a crappy deal because you started and lost a stupid war

[America First Policy Institute @A1Policy]

🚨 Vice President @JDVance SLAMS critics of the Iran peace deal:

"They want this to go on until every bomb has been dropped, or until every Iranian is dead. That is not what the President of the United States wants"

[Ed Elson @edels0n]

“Iran will maintain the current status quo of its nuclear program, while the US will impose no new sanctions and deploy no additional forces”

Art of the Deal

[Jonathan Karl @jonkarl]

“This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.”

[U.S. Senator Bill Cassidy, M.D. @SenBillCassidy]

Reagan is rolling over in his grave. Iran’s nuclear ambitions were not curbed, and they have learned that threatening the Strait of Hormuz works and will undoubtedly leverage it in the future. Now, Iran gets to build brand-new infrastructure under this deal.

Before the war, the strait was open, Iran was being crushed by sanctions, and 13 service members were still alive. Now, 13 Americans are dead, families have paid billions at the pump, sanctions will be lifted, and the bombing has stopped. This is the worst foreign policy blunder in decades.

[Mark Dubowitz @mdubowitz]

If the WSJ report is accurate, then @miadmaleki’s analysis below suggests the MOU may be even worse than I assumed.

“Broadening authorization to financial transactions would crack the core architecture of U.S. oil and financial sanctions against Iran, arguably the most powerful economic leverage the U.S. holds over this regime, absent the naval blockade.”

[Institute for the Study of War @TheStudyofWar]

KEY TAKEAWAY: The leaked text of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, if accurate, indicates that Iran has emerged from the conflict in a stronger strategic position. ⬇️🧵(1/7)

[Miad Maleki @miadmaleki]

A friendly reminder to all parties structuring this memorandum of misunderstanding.

The $300B private fund to invest in Iran has a statutory problem: the Trump administration formally determined and reported to Congress in 2020 and 2025 that Iran's construction sector is IRGC-controlled.

Set aside the criminal exposure from IRGC's FTO designation. IFCA §1245 imposes mandatory sanctions on the sector. The President can waive, but only 180 days at a time. No serious investor commits billions on a rolling six-month waiver cycle.

So which is it? Will the administration return to Congress claiming the IRGC vacated Iran's construction sector overnight? Or will it revoke the IRGC's FTO designation to clear the path?

The deal's architects need to explain how $300B in committed funds navigates this, or they need every Member of Congress to look the other way.

[Arnaud Bertrand @RnaudBertrand]

Here are the 14 points of the "deal" between the US and Iran released today by Bloomberg (and, yes, the $300 billion payment to Iran is in there as well as the end of "all types of sanctions" on Iran):

1) The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States, together with their allies in the current war, declare upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding an immediate and permanent end to the war on all fronts, including Lebanon, and undertake that from now on they will not launch any hostile action against each other, and will refrain from the threat or use of force against each other. The final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article and the remaining Articles.

2) The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to respect each other’s sovereignty and territorial integrity, and to refrain from interfering in each other’s internal affairs.

3) The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States undertake to negotiate and reach a final agreement within a maximum period of 60 days, extendable by mutual consent.

4) Immediately upon the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, the United States Lift the naval blockade and prevent any interference or obstruction against the Islamic Republic of Iran, and restore traffic within a maximum of 30 days to its full capacity; the traffic of ships shall be proportional to the pre-war volume of traffic on the part of the Islamic Republic of Iran. The United States also undertakes to withdraw its forces from the surrounding areas within 30 days after the final agreement.

5) Upon signing this Memorandum of Understanding, the Islamic Republic of Iran will immediately take steps to ensure that the movement of merchant ships from the Persian Gulf to the Sea of ​​Oman and vice versa is resumed within 30 days to the pre-war volume, taking into account the need for the removal of technical obstacles and the neutralization of mines by Iran.

6) The United States undertakes, together with its regional partners, to create a comprehensive plan agreed upon by both parties for the rehabilitation and economic development of the Islamic Republic of Iran, While ensuring financing of at least $300 billion. The implementation mechanism of this plan, as part of the final agreement, will be formulated within 60 days.

7) The United States commits to ending, on a schedule to be agreed upon as part of the final agreement, all types of sanctions currently facing the Islamic Republic of Iran, including resolutions of the United Nations Security Council and the Board of Governors of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), and all unilateral U.S. sanctions, both primary and secondary.

8) The Islamic Republic of Iran reiterates that it will never produce nuclear weapons. The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States have agreed that the fate of enriched material and the fate of all other mutually agreed nuclear-related issues, including Iran’s nuclear needs, will be adequately addressed in a final agreement; the final agreement will confirm the provisions of this Article.

9) The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that, pending a final agreement, they will maintain the status quo: Iran will maintain the status quo on its nuclear program, and the United States will not impose new sanctions on Iran or strengthen its forces in the region.

10) The United States undertakes that immediately after the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and until the date of the lifting of sanctions, the United States Treasury Department will issue waivers for exports of Iranian crude oil, petrochemical products and their derivatives, and all related services, including banking, insurance, transportation, and the like.

11) The United States undertakes that, in light of the progress of negotiations towards a final agreement, frozen or restricted funds and assets of the Islamic Republic of Iran will be released and made fully available. These funds, whether held in the master account or transferred, will be used for any final beneficiary payment determined by the Central Bank of the Islamic Republic of Iran and will be fully available for use. The United States undertakes to issue all necessary permits and licenses on this basis.

12) The Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States agree that an implementation mechanism will be established to oversee the successful implementation of and future commitment to the Final Agreement.

13) Following the signing of this Memorandum of Understanding, and upon receipt of assurances regarding the commencement of implementation of Articles 4, 5, 10, and 11 of this Memorandum of Understanding, and the continued implementation of these steps, the Islamic Republic of Iran and the United States will enter into negotiations for a Final Agreement solely with respect to the remaining Articles.

14) The final agreement will be approved through a binding resolution of the UN Security Council.

[Senator Jeff Merkley @SenJeffMerkley]

This ocean observatory program is authorized, it’s funded, and for the administration to shut it down without direction from Congress is supreme stupidity and a violation of the fundamental separation of powers in our Constitution.
https://t.co/aXSTjdJsAV

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

Going to try to keep this in mind because, as humiliating as the outcome is, resuming the war doesn't offer any prospect of a better result.

[Jimmy King @Jimmyking35]

It was a great first weekend for the World Cup in the city of Philadelphia

In addition to a near sell-out at Philadelphia Stadium for the match between Ecuador and Côte d’Ivoire on Sunday night (68,274), the city has reported:

-more than 100,000 fans at FIFA Fan Fest’s opening weekend

-more than 438,000 arriving and departing passengers at Philadelphia National Airport

-18,806 free SEPTA rides from NRG following the match

-7,440 riders on Philly’s PHLASH bus

-25,297 Indego bike share trips

Pretty solid numbers for the first weekend of a big Summer

Full release from City: https://t.co/Tzv8GkM8Kt

[Jimmy King @Jimmyking35]

This is what the rest of the World Cup is missing out on by not allowing tailgating. Philadelphia has done it right

[The Wall Street Journal @WSJ]

Many of the hawkish conservatives who rushed to President Trump’s defense at the beginning of the war with Iran now fear he is at risk of losing at the negotiating table, emboldening Tehran and setting back joint U.S.-Israeli interests in the process https://t.co/jwgvtrp4bP

[Gerard Baker @gerardtbaker]

Vance’s defenses of the “deal” have been so palpably absurd that I wonder whether he isn’t actually signaling to voters his covert opposition to the whole war. Using code words and ideas like a prisoner in a hostage video .

[Michael Weiss @michaeldweiss]

Editor-at-large of the Wall Street Journal.👇

[Dr. Jeffrey Lewis @ArmsControlWonk]

+1: I lost friends over giving the JCPOA an “A” and … god damn it … I hope this clusterfuck causes some people to rethink their approach to assessing diplomatic solutions. It was, given the constraints, basically a miracle.

[Senate Majority PAC @MajorityPAC]

Ban stock trading for public officials.

[Evergreen Intel @vcdgf555]

Yeah, those are numbers and times I wouldn't like to hear.