🆕LATEST: Coinbase Research reports Bitcoin and COIN50 index have fallen below their 200-day moving averages.
2/ 📈 MARKET UPDATE: This technical signal suggests a possible early stage of a long-term downward trend.
3/ 📊 ANALYSIS: Declining total market capitalization and shrinking venture capital accompany this bearish indicator.
4/ 🔎 INSIGHT: These combined factors point to potential arrival of a "crypto winter" according to Coinbase Research.
Constructive phone call discussion with Premier Li Qiang.
We took stock of the state of EU-China relations as we approach 50 years of diplomatic ties and on global issues.
Read-out ↓
⚠️JUST IN:
*CANADA SAYS IT'S ALREADY ANNOUNCED 25% COUNTER-TARIFFS AGAINST SOME U.S.-MADE AUTOS, WILL GO INTO EFFECT APRIL 9
*CANADA SAYS THE TARIFFS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL U.S. ELIMINATES ITS TARIFFS AGAINST THE CANADIAN AUTO SECTOR
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Today, @Ripple announced the acquisition of Hidden Road for $1.25B, one of the largest deals ever in the crypto space. But the price tag isn’t what’s most important – it’s that this deal marks a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity for crypto to access the largest and most trusted traditional markets, and vice versa.
Prime brokers (along with other key functions historically managed by banks for the most part) like Hidden Road have proven themselves as *the* trusted intermediary for the largest hedge funds, market makers, OTC desks, quant traders and more. Ripple has been a customer of Hidden Road for years, and we know their breadth of expertise firsthand, clearing $3 TRILLION annually for 300+ of the top financial institutions globally.
This is the capital and activity that will tap into XRP and the XRP Ledger’s bread-and-butter – instant, efficient, scalable and low cost movement of value. Instead of waiting for <24 hours to settle trades through fiat rails, Hidden Road will be using XRPL for clearing a portion of trades, and most consequentially, using RLUSD as collateral across its prime brokerage services, including cross-asset (crypto and traditional instrument) trades.
With this deal and the backing of Ripple’s significant balance sheet, Hidden Road will exponentially expand its capacity to service its pipeline and become the largest non-bank prime broker globally.
Ripple and Hidden Road combined are a generational leap forward, ready to truly bring the worlds of traditional and decentralized finance together. https://t.co/UYOOyQ21dG
BIG BREAKING! 🚨💵🪦
CHINA LAUNCHES GLOBAL DIGITAL PAYMENT NETWORK BYPASSING SWIFT
The People's Bank of China just connected its digital RMB to 10 ASEAN and 6 Middle Eastern nations, covering *38% of global trade*.
This bypasses SWIFT and the US dollar entirely. Payments now clear in 7 seconds, not 3-5 days. Fees slashed by 98%.
Middle Eastern energy traders are in. ASEAN’s RMB trade hit 5.8 trillion yuan. Thailand settled oil in digital RMB.
While the US debates if digital currency is a threat, China has already built a global network across 200 countries.
This isn’t just payments. It’s a Digital Silk Road. It’s de-dollarisatio in action. And it’s happening NOW.
“China will come crawling back to us because they need to sell to us”.
OK mashed potato brains.
Let’s do the math slowly for you.
China exports $400B to the U.S. per year.
China exports $3.3T to the rest of the world every year.
The U.S. exported $3.2T to the world in 2024.
That number is certain to go down in 2025.
If that number just goes down by 12%, which is a very conservative estimate, and the rest of the world looks to fill that with Chinese product (which is cheaper than the U.S. and has less profit built in), then the U.S. gets completely boxed out here.
China replaces us easily (just as they have since we peaked our trading relationship in 2018). We sell less. The rest of the world moves on rather quickly.
Thinking we are invincible and have all the cards is a fatal mistake.
🚨🇨🇳CHINA VOWS 'EXTRAORDINARY EFFORTS' TO FIGHT TRUMP TARIFF HIT
Beijing’s flagship newspaper says the government is ready to unleash aggressive monetary and fiscal support to counter Trump’s sweeping tariffs.
The People’s Daily says China could cut interest rates and widen its budget deficit if needed, while accelerating domestic consumption and stabilizing markets.
Shanghai is down 6%, Hong Kong’s Hang Seng more than 10%.
Source: Bloomberg
Today we cancelled all of the customs duties levied on products from the US, Israel's largest trading partner.
Cancelling the customs duties on American goods is an additional step in the policy that my governments have led for a decade in opening up the market to competition, introducing variety to the economy and lowering the cost of living.
In addition to the advantages to the market and to citizens of Israel, the current effort will allow us to further strengthen the alliance and ties between Israel and the US. We will continue to work to reduce barriers and customs, and bolster our special relationship with the US.
Retail investors are becoming even more bearish:
The share of individual investors expressing bearish sentiment over the next 6 months in the AAII survey hit 61.9%, the most since March 2009.
This is also the 3rd-highest reading since the survey began in 1987.
By comparison, the 2022 bear market peak was 60.8%.
AAII Bearish Sentiment has been above 55.0% for 6 consecutive weeks, the longest stretch since the 1990s.
This has surpassed the previous 5-week streaks during the 2008 Financial Crisis and the 2022 bear market.
Market sentiment has rarely been this pessimistic.