Not more than naive traders.
Fundamentally, anyone who is -EV on a prediction market is running an algorithm other than (linear) truthseeking, and so no matter what, their buys will push prices away from their "correct" level.
The argument for why prediction markets are truth-seeking despite this is that each such trader creates more motivation for sophisticated traders to come in and do even more and better research to identify what the "correct" price levels are, and profitably bid against them. This is the same for naive traders and for hedgers (and, for that matter, a fourth category I missed: people trying to manipulate social processes that take prediction market prices as an input)
ICYMI https://t.co/cB5i0ozYqC
#BitcoinHalving2024#Bitcoin#HalvingBitcoin
(yes, our team made the audio a bit too fast, but hey, maybe you'll learn how to reduce playback speed on youtube, if you've never done that before π)
I have never been more bullish on crypto.
Because the rules-based order is collapsing and the code-based order is rising. So the short term price doesnβt matter.
As international law breaks down, we will need not just onchain currencies, but onchain companies. As the post-war order breaks down, weβll similarly need the post-internet order. States will fail, and the network will take their place.
We need internet capitalism, we need internet democracy, and we need internet privacy. So we need cryptocurrency.