Revant

Value-centric thematic investor in Indian SME, micro & smallcaps + select coverage on other EMs

[Revant @kaarsevak]

@contrarianEPS Time to get greedy. Sentiment is so weak right now, inspires more confidence and optimism in me than I’ve felt in a long long time.

[Revant @kaarsevak]

@_asura_samraat_ @citrini Agreed, but I'm talking about the NIFTY50 too.

[Revant @kaarsevak]

@dammitjim77 @citrini Working on a write-up covering exactly this, publishing it within the next 3-4 days. Will DM it to you first thing once done.

[Revant @kaarsevak]

@archetypekafka @citrini Time shall tell who is smoking what:) let my 18 months complete and we'll find out.

[Revant @kaarsevak]

@aravind @maryashakil And social media. No nation is truly ‘sovereign’ without indigenous SM

[Revant @kaarsevak]

CDMO theme may peak out soon. A few more months to go, though.

[Revant @kaarsevak]

The last few months have been very rewarding - kept me busy. My last Tweet (below) was 6 months ago, on some companies I liked. How they have performed since:

Gravita: +12.3%
Tips: +26.99%
Aeroflex: +122.82%
Godawari: -22.99%
Laurus: +103.4%

More to come - will be far more active on X going fwd. Sorry to my 5 followers for the hiatus🙂

[Revant @kaarsevak]

Notes on small & mid-caps I have been tracking, expected to grow earnings at 20+% a year on account of improving product mix, regulatory tailwinds, & capacities going live (1/2):

1. Gravita India: India's largest organised recycler - lead, aluminium, plastics, rubber. Entering lithium battery recycling & copper. Only 6-7% market share today, regulatory tailwinds (BWMR, PWMR) pulling volumes toward organised players. 426ktpa capacity scaling to 700ktpa by FY28 across 13 global plants, PAT CAGR of 24% expected over FY25-28e (management guidance higher, at 35% CAGR over FY25-29e)

2. TIPS Music: Pure music IP compounder. Existing catalog of 34,000 songs drives 15%+ revenue growth for 10+ years alone, not accounting for any new acquisitions of IP. Fully internally funded and only acquires IP with payback period of <3 yrs. Will return 100% of prior year PAT as dividend. Guidance: 20% revenue growth, PAT growth: 25% for FY26

3. Aeroflex Industries: Flexible hose manufacturer moving into data center liquid cooling, through an exclusive 5-year agreement with a US partner. Skid capacity scaling 2,000 → 15,000 units by June 2026. Peak liquid cooling revenue potential: ₹300-350cr by FY29. EBITDA margin guidance 23-25%; analyst consensus 26% PAT CAGR FY26-28e (proxy play on the global liquid/chip cooling market, which itself is growing at 33-35% p.a.)

[Revant @kaarsevak]

Notes on small & mid-caps I have been tracking, expected to grow earnings at 20+% a year on account of improving product mix, regulatory tailwinds, & capacities going live (2/2):

4. Godawari Power & Ispat: Integrated steel + pellet play in heavy capex phase. Ari Dongri mine EC received, capacity scaling 2.35MT → 6MT by FY28. New pellet plant now live, also entering BESS manufacturing: 20GWh Phase 1, doubling to 40GWh by FY29. EBITDA CAGR of 27% expected FY25-28e

5. Laurus Labs: CDMO transformation getting serious, revenues up 50% YoY in 9MFY26. Won formulation contracts on patented innovator molecules and is building India's largest spray drying facility. Biologics plant live Oct 2026, EU/APAC generics JV (3B tablet capacity) by mid-2027. Largest dolutegravir player globally. 16% EPS CAGR FY26-28e (analyst estimates)

[Revant @kaarsevak]

Notes on small & mid-caps I have been tracking, expected to grow earnings at 20+% a year on account of improving product mix, regulatory tailwinds, & capacities going live (1/2):

1. Gravita India: India's largest organised recycler - lead, aluminium, plastics, rubber. Entering lithium battery recycling & copper. Only 6-7% market share today, regulatory tailwinds (BWMR, PWMR) pulling volumes toward organised players. 426ktpa capacity scaling to 700ktpa by FY28 across 13 global plants, PAT CAGR of 24% expected over FY25-28e (management guidance higher, at 35% CAGR over FY25-29e)

2. TIPS Music: Pure music IP compounder. Existing catalog of 34,000 songs drives 15%+ revenue growth for 10+ years alone, not accounting for any new acquisitions of IP. Fully internally funded and only acquires IP with payback period of <3 yrs. Will return 100% of prior year PAT as dividend. Guidance: 20% revenue growth, PAT growth: 25% for FY26

3. Aeroflex Industries: Flexible hose manufacturer moving into data center liquid cooling, through an exclusive 5-year agreement with a US partner. Skid capacity scaling 2,000 → 15,000 units by June 2026. Peak liquid cooling revenue potential: ₹300-350cr by FY29. EBITDA margin guidance 23-25%; analyst consensus 26% PAT CAGR FY26-28e (proxy play on the global liquid/chip cooling market, which itself is growing at 33-35% p.a.)

[Revant @kaarsevak]

@ishmohit1 And we were told that information arbitrage was a thing of the 90s. Barron Trump proves everyone wrong yet again

[Revant @kaarsevak]

@neorevolt @tushar9590 😂🙏

[Revant @kaarsevak]

@Gautampolisetty Select infra businesses in the SME space trading at &lt;3x 2-year forward earnings. Looks promising 🙏

[Revant @kaarsevak]

Just buying low-P/E businesses outperforms the market.

The average low-P/E business delivered 5% annual outperformance, assuming a 3-year holding period (averaged across all rolling 3-year periods from 1998-2018).

(Findings are for the universe of listed businesses with market capitalisation > 1000 cr, from 1998-2018)