Kaito Online

[Darkfost @Darkfost_Coc]

🟢 Bitcoin’s net supply ratio just flashed a buy signal

I’m seeing more and more indicators reaching extreme values, suggesting that the BTC market is entering a genuine devaluation phase.

UTXO analysis, represented here by a net supply ratio, reveals that we’re entering a phase where accumulation becomes relevant.

— 💡UTXOs (Unspent Transaction Outputs) are a mechanism specific to Bitcoin that ensures a BTC has only been spent once.
These UTXOs therefore contain information (price, dates, amount) that allows us to analyze what’s happening on-chain and deduce behaviors from it.—

💥 This ratio has now been negative for a week and just reached -0.075, corresponding to a buy signal.

The last time this happened was at the end of 2022, right at the end of the bear market.

This isn’t an indicator dedicated to detecting tops and bottoms; its purpose is to help position oneself relative to a global supply that could find itself with either large profits or larger losses.

Since it depends on the profit and loss of UTXOs, it can very well signal something during either a sharp drop or a sharp rise.

👉 That said, in terms of cyclicality, it wouldn’t be inconsistent to think that the end of this bear market could be approaching.

This won’t stop BTC from going lower, but we now have several signals pointing to seller exhaustion. The next step is a renewal of demand, and that could take some time.

[Kong Trading 🦍 @KongBTC]

Guys I think the Bitcoin rainbow needs a new color

We already have Fire sale
We already have BUY
We already have Accumulate

But whatever this is deserves its own category

Something between "everyone is tired" and "you will regret ignoring this later"

$BTC really knows how to make opportunity feel disgusting

[satyaxbt @satyaXBT]

Michael saylor akhirnya punya tombol sell.

@Strategy baru aja ngenalin Digital Credit Capital Framework, sistem baru yang bikin mereka bisa ngelola modal lebih aktif, termasuk jual BTC secara periodik.

program ini dipakai buat:

- nambah USD reserve
- bayar dividen dan bunga
- buyback saham $MSTR atau preferred stock

kapasitas BTC Monetization Program-nya sampai $1.25 miliar.

mereka juga udah punya sekitar $2.55 miliar USD reserve, naikin dividen STRC jadi 12%, plus nyiapin masing-masing $1 miliar buat buyback saham MSTR dan preferred stock.

konteksnya, Strategy sekarang pegang 847,363 BTC.

jadi $1.25 miliar itu relatif kecil dibanding total treasury mereka.

yang berubah adalah cara mereka ngelola modal.

sebelumnya, Strategy lebih sering menerbitkan saham atau utang lalu memakai dananya untuk membeli BTC

sekarang mereka bisa pilih antara jual equity, credit, atau sedikit BTC tergantung kondisi pasar.

ini bisa ngurangin dilution dan bikin kewajiban dividen mereka lebih aman.

Saylor masih bullish Bitcoin. tapi Strategy sekarang mulai terlihat seperti perusahaan keuangan berbasis BTC, bukan cuma beli dan hold

[jurnalsibapak @fajrek1]

Dia 34 tahun, rajin futsal tiap Jumat.
Badan kelihatan fit. Gak pernah sakit. Gak pernah ngeluh. Semua orang bilang dia sehat.

Sampai Jumat malam itu. Menit ke-25. Dia pegang dada. Duduk di pinggir lapangan. "Bentar, ngos-ngosan."

30 detik kemudian dia kolaps di lapangan futsal, di depan 12 temennya.
Serangan jantung diumur 34.

[David @david_eng_mba]

Bitcoin is weak short term, not broken long term.

Days/weeks: derivatives are defensive.

Spot: $61K
Pin: $60K
Gamma flip: $63.3K
Put wall: $60K
Call wall: $80K

Major expiry: Jun 26, 40% of gamma expires

Meaning: traders are hedged, not euphoric.

Months/years: structure is intact.
Spot: $61K
P-10 floor: $63.4K
Adoption spine: $74.9K
400d tracker: $92.8K
Power-law trend: $134K

Meaning: BTC is compressed below structure, not decoupled from it.

Key line: $63.3K

Below it: stress/pin regime.
Above it: repair starts.
Above $74.9K: structure confirms.
Above $92.8K: cycle confirms.
Toward $134K: full mean reversion.

Price is weak because the short-term is defensive.

Thesis is intact because the long-term is still above price.

Derivatives control days.
Adoption controls years/decades.

[IhsanAgaz  @ihsanagaz]

🚨 Sedikit mengingatkan…

Di 3 siklus bear market sebelumnya, Bitcoin gak bottom tepat di MA200 Weekly.

Tapi rata-rata turun lagi sekitar 30% di bawah MA200 Weekly sebelum benar-benar membentuk dasar.

2015: -30% di bawah MA200W
2020: -33% di bawah MA200W
2022: -33% di bawah MA200W

Kalau sejarah kembali berulang, area $50K-$40K masih sangat mungkin dikunjungi.

Bukan kepastian.

Tapi ini data yang wajib diketahui

Save dulu. Nanti kita lihat apakah market kembali mengulang sejarah atau akhirnya mematahkan pola ini. 🔥

[Kaito Online @kaitonline]

@DumpDetected nunggu momentum aka news wkwkwk

[Kaito Online @kaitonline]

@hoteliercrypto @susipudjiastuti plis jawab kenapa jadi inflasi bli? 🤔

[Kaito Online @kaitonline]

@DumpDetected ok bli siap2 beli ruko 🤭

[Sminston With 👁 @sminston_with]

Check this out.

There's a strong case that Bitcoin's fair value should be done through a 'Bubble-Free' lens. That is, REMOVE the quasi-cyclical bull run 'bubbles' before analyzing residuals/fair-value.

Now we see the "BUBBLE-FREE" price residuals.

. . . .

Turns out even in Bubble-Free, we have essentially already bounced off what was the worst residual we saw in 2022 (or very close, within error). I think this supports that there is a good chance the actual current cycle bottom is behind us.

Notice the Bubble-Free residuals distribution (right-edge of the last frame) - that lower tail of the distribution has been bounced off, and we now still sit at extreme/deep value. What a time to buy.

[Kaito Online @kaitonline]

sebuah clue utk tambah barang wkwkwk

[Hoteliercrypto @hoteliercrypto]

CKB SCAM
ASTR SCAM
EGLD SCAM
ARB SCAM
POL SCAM
JUP SCAM
SANTOS SCAM
LAZIO SCAM
ATOM SCAM
RONIN SCAM
ARKM SCAM
AUCTION SCAM
PHA SCAM
G SCAM
HOT SCAM
GLM SCAM

Saya udah buktikan, pokoknya kalau saya ga TP SCAM.

[Coin Bureau @coinbureau]

🚨NEW: THIEL-BACKED $1 BILLION STARTUP WILL PUT AI DATA CENTERS IN THE OCEAN

Panthalassa, a startup backed by Peter Thiel is developing floating platforms designed to host future AI data centre infrastructure at sea.

Its planned Ocean-3 system will use ocean waves for power and seawater for cooling, potentially eliminating the need for land, power grids, and traditional data center infrastructure.

[Kaito Online @kaitonline]

@KenalKripto udah ada om, yg pake drone di airsoft wkwkk

[lynk @lynk0x]

If pharmaceutical companies cured you, they'd go bankrupt.

if banks helped you get out of debt, they'd collapse.

if politicians actually solved all your problems, nobody would elect them again.

If Tom kills Jerry the show is over.
It's all a big show.

Everything is fake.

[Kaito Online @kaitonline]

@hoteliercrypto @pickypoopers udah ga ada harga diri nya ini RRP bli?

[Kaito Online @kaitonline]

@hoteliercrypto btw Endek itu apa bli? *asligatau

[DumpDetected @DumpDetected]

Jika memang minggu ini aliran uang mulai bergeser ke $RWA , maka yang menarik untuk diamati bukan hanya token RWA murni.

Nilai aset RWA on-chain naik dari $4,1 miliar menjadi $17,7 miliar.

Tapi mayoritas token RWA justru tidak ikut menikmati pertumbuhan tersebut.

Artinya, pertumbuhan sektor tidak selalu dinikmati oleh semua token di dalamnya.

Karena itu saya lebih tertarik melihat siapa saja yang berada di sekitar ekosistem tersebut dan berpotensi mendapat manfaat jika adopsi RWA terus berkembang.

$ONDO tokenisasi obligasi

$PLUME blockchain yang fokus pada RWA.

$SKY eksposur ke Treasury dan aset dunia nyata.

$ENA pertumbuhan stablecoin dan yield

• $LINK & $PYTH penyedia data yang dibutuhkan saat aset dunia nyata dibawa ke blockchain.

$SOL salah satu chain dengan pertumbuhan aktivitas RWA tercepat.

$AVAX aktif bekerja sama dengan institusi dan proyek tokenisasi aset.

$ARB rumah bagi berbagai aplikasi dan infrastruktur tokenisasi aset.

Tapi ingat.

Narasi yang naik belum tentu membuat semua token di dalamnya ikut naik.

Sama seperti sektor AI kemarin.
Yang menang bukan semua token AI.

Yang menang adalah proyek yang berhasil menarik pengguna, likuiditas, dan perhatian market.

Karena pada akhirnya harga bergerak ke tempat yang didatangi uang baru. 🫡

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

https://t.co/yeG4PgpjEq