Kalkylerat

📊 Football chances from the odds, in plain numbers
⚖️ A fair price for every result
🔁 Every result shown after full time
Chances, not picks · 18+

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

📊 How likely is it, really?

Big games in plain numbers:
🎯 chances from the odds, no margin
📐 a fair price for each result
🧾 the bookmakers' cut
🔁 at full time: what happened and its chance

Mondays: what we said vs what happened.

Chances, not picks.
18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

⚽ FULL TIME · from tonight's board
🆚 Sporting CP 1–2 Academico Viseu
📉 Upset meter: 9%, about a 1-in-11 result

📊 Our pre-match chance of what happened:
🏆 Academico Viseu win: 9%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals: 69%
🥅 Both teams scored: 53%
🎯 Score 1-2: 3%

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

312 matches analysed, 8 on today's board.

🆚 Castellón v Sporting Gijon · 18:30 CET
🏆 Castellón 63% · Draw 21% · Sporting Gijon 16%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals 55% · Under 45%
🎯 Likeliest score 2-0 (11%)

💬 Is 2-0 at 11% too low for a 63% home side?

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[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

🔁 FULL TIME
🇪🇸 Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid 🇪🇸
📐 Expected goals from shots: 1.3 – 2.0

📊 Pre-match chances:
🏆 Real Madrid win: 25%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals: 82%
🥅 Both teams scored: 77%
🎯 Score 1-2: 5%

💬 Not picks. Fair result on the chances created? 👇
18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

4+ goals: 64%.
Expected goals 2.6 – 1.8.

🇪🇸 Barcelona v Real Madrid 🇪🇸 · 21:00 CET
🏆 Barcelona 57% · Draw 18% · Real Madrid 25%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals 82% · Under 18%
🥅 Both teams score 77% · Not both 23%

💬 Chances, not picks. Can Real Madrid beat 25%? 👇
18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

⚽ FULL TIME · from this morning's board
🇪🇸 Barcelona 1–2 Real Madrid 🇪🇸
📉 Upset meter: 25%, about a 1-in-4 result

📊 Our pre-match chance of what happened:
🏆 Real Madrid win: 25%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals: 82%
🥅 Both teams scored: 77%
🎯 Score 1-2: 5%

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

📋 Today's chances, not picks · every % in the image

🆚 Barcelona v Real Madrid
🏆 Barcelona 57% · Draw 18% · Real Madrid 25%

🆚 Inter v Fiorentina
🏆 Inter 71% · Draw 17% · Fiorentina 12%

💬 Which % surprises you? 👇

#LaLiga #Barca
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[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

🔁 FULL TIME
🇮🇹 Udinese 0–2 AC Milan 🇮🇹
📐 Expected goals from shots: 0.5 – 3.1

📊 Pre-match chances:
🏆 AC Milan win: 53%
⚽ Under 2.5 goals: 51%
🥅 Not both teams scored: 49%
🎯 Score 0-2: 10%

💬 Not picks. Fair result on the chances created? 👇
18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

Most likely score: 0-1.
Even that is only 12%.

🇮🇹 Udinese v AC Milan 🇮🇹 · 20:45 CET
🏆 Udinese 23% · Draw 24% · AC Milan 53%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals 49% · Under 51%
🥅 Both teams score 51% · Not both 49%

💬 Chances, not picks. Can Udinese beat 23%? 👇
#SerieA
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[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

⚽ FULL TIME · from this morning's board
🇮🇹 Udinese 0–2 AC Milan 🇮🇹
🔎 That result had 53% before kick-off, about 1 in 2

📊 Our pre-match chance of what happened:
🏆 AC Milan win: 53%
⚽ Under 2.5 goals: 51%
🥅 Not both teams scored: 49%
🎯 Score 0-2: 10%

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

⚽ FULL TIME · from tonight's board
🇳🇱 AZ Alkmaar 0–2 Twente 🇳🇱
📉 Upset meter: 32%, about a 1-in-3 result

📊 Our pre-match chance of what happened:
🏆 Twente win: 32%
⚽ Under 2.5 goals: 33%
🥅 Not both teams scored: 33%
🎯 Score 0-2: 4%

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

⚽ FT · from today's board
🆚 Union St. Gilloise 5–2 Cercle Brugge
🔎 That result had 72% before kick-off, about 3 in 4

📊 Pre-match chance:
🏆 Union St. Gilloise win: 72%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals: 64%
🥅 Both teams scored: 52%
🎯 Score 5-2: 1%

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

⚽ FULL TIME · from tonight's board
🆚 Molde 5–1 Fredrikstad
🔎 That result had 68% before kick-off, about 2 in 3

📊 Our pre-match chance of what happened:
🏆 Molde win: 68%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals: 68%
🥅 Both teams scored: 59%
🎯 Score 5-1: 2%

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

⚽ FULL TIME · from tonight's board
🆚 Rio Ave 0–4 Famalicao
🔎 That result had 46% before kick-off, about 9 in 20

📊 Our pre-match chance of what happened:
🏆 Famalicao win: 46%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals: 46%
🥅 Not both teams scored: 50%
🎯 Score 0-4: 2%

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

⚽ FULL TIME · from tonight's board
🆚 Nacional 1–0 SC Braga
📉 Upset meter: 16%, about a 1-in-6 result

📊 Our pre-match chance of what happened:
🏆 Nacional win: 16%
⚽ Under 2.5 goals: 48%
🥅 Not both teams scored: 51%
🎯 Score 1-0: 5%

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

⚽ FULL TIME · from tonight's board
🆚 Gent 4–0 Anderlecht
🔎 That result had 43% before kick-off, about 2 in 5

📊 Our pre-match chance of what happened:
🏆 Gent win: 43%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals: 47%
🥅 Not both teams scored: 48%
🎯 Score 4-0: 1%

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

⚽ FT · from today's board
🇪🇸 Castellón 4–0 Sporting Gijon 🇪🇸
🔎 That result had 63% before kick-off, about 3 in 5

📊 Pre-match chance:
🏆 Castellón win: 63%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals: 55%
🥅 Not both teams scored: 49%
🎯 Score 4-0: 4%

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

⚽ FT · from today's board
🇪🇸 Real Sociedad 2–1 Levante 🇪🇸
🔎 That result had 61% before kick-off, about 3 in 5

📊 Pre-match chance:
🏆 Real Sociedad win: 61%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals: 65%
🥅 Both teams scored: 61%
🎯 Score 2-1: 10%

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

Lecce 0-2 Juventus, on almost level chances.

📈 Expected goals: 1.0 – 1.1

🏆 Juventus win 63%
⚽ Under 2.5 goals 49%
🥅 Not both teams scored 53%
🎯 Score 0-2 12%

💬 Level shots, 0-2 on the board. Was 12% for that score too low?

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

Juventus win 63%: about 2 in 3.
Lecce win it about 1 time in 7 (15%).

🇮🇹 Lecce v Juventus 🇮🇹 · 18:00 CET
🏆 Lecce 15% · Draw 22% · Juventus 63%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals 51% · Under 49%
🥅 Both teams score 47% · Not both 53%

💬 Not picks. What's your score? 👇
18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

⚽ FULL TIME · from this morning's board
🇮🇹 Lecce 0–2 Juventus 🇮🇹
🔎 That result had 63% before kick-off, about 2 in 3

📊 Our pre-match chance of what happened:
🏆 Juventus win: 63%
⚽ Under 2.5 goals: 49%
🥅 Not both teams scored: 53%
🎯 Score 0-2: 12%

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

💡 Streaks are normal

Something that happens 60% of the time will, over 100 tries, miss 5 in a row at least once with a 46% chance. A run of misses isn't proof of anything; that's maths.

Do streaks fool you too? 👇

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

Freiburg 1-3 Bayern München

📈 Expected goals from shots: 1.1 – 3.0

🏆 Bayern München win: 68%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals: 74%
🥅 Both teams scored: 65%
🎯 Score 1-3: 8%

💬 Bayern created 3.0 expected goals. Does 8% for exactly 1-3 look too low to you?
18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

Bayern München win 68%: about 2 in 3.

🇩🇪 SC Freiburg v Bayern München 🇩🇪
🏆 SC Freiburg 15% · Draw 17% · Bayern München 68%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals 74% · Under 26%
🥅 Both teams score 65% · Not both 35%

💬 Chances, not picks. Can SC Freiburg beat 15%? 👇
18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

⚽ FULL TIME · from this morning's board
🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿 Sunderland 0–0 Leeds 🏴󠁧󠁢󠁥󠁮󠁧󠁿
📉 Upset meter: 28%, about a 1-in-4 result

📊 Our pre-match chance of what happened:
🏆 Draw: 28%
⚽ Under 2.5 goals: 57%
🥅 Not both teams scored: 51%
🎯 Score 0-0: 9%

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

💡 What expected goals really measures

Expected goals adds up how likely each shot was to go in. A penalty goes in about 76% to 79% of the time. It describes chances, not finishing luck.

Expected goals or the eye test? 👇

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

Sparta Rotterdam 1-2 Ajax

📈 Expected goals from shots: 0.9 – 1.3

Before kick-off:
🏆 Ajax win 67%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals 71%
🥅 Both teams score 63%
🎯 Score 1-2 9%

💬 Ajax created 1.3 to 0.9 on shots. Does 67% for their win look about right to you?

18+ | Play responsibly

[Kalkylerat @kalkylerat]

Ajax win 67%: about 2 in 3.

🇳🇱 Sparta Rotterdam v Ajax 🇳🇱
🏆 Sparta Rotterdam 16% · Draw 18% · Ajax 67%
⚽ Over 2.5 goals 71% · Under 29%
🥅 Both teams score 63% · Not both 37%

💬 Chances, not picks. More or fewer than 2.5 goals? 👇
#Eredivisie
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