Karl Steiner

Head of Analysis at SEB Strategy & Economic Research.
Tweets: Global Macro / FICC / SEK / NOK / Central banks.
Opinions my own

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

#EURSEK ahead of the Riksbank rate decision: Upside bias lately with EUR/SEK rising past the 6 latest decisions. Rate spread argues for higher EUR/SEK ahead of the decision but positioning is already quite short SEK. https://t.co/o4XKvYC4kr

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

Very muted reaction in EUR/SEK following the #Riksbank rate decision at 09:30 CET. Still EUR/SEK trades with a significant (and thus usually unsustainable) #SEK undervaluation according to our short-term fair value model (#STFV)

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

@thecarefreebear Alternativt så snappade Di upp artikeln och skriver om den här https://t.co/O3K656aw6N (bakom betalvägg)

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

Nyfunnen kronstyrka kan ge positiv ”feedback loop” men mot det står ett negativt säsongsmönster i oktober och en global miljö som ännu inte är kronvänlig. Läs mer i Ögat: iAqJVDU3_kW9CrjcIfauCQ.pdf (https://t.co/RkaJ9Ngev6)

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

@thecarefreebear Det verkar tyvärr som det blev något fel på den! Nytt förskök: https://t.co/lB0WrGSsQi

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

Risk appetite fell for a 2nd straight week last week according to our #riskappetiteindex. However, the fall was concentrated on Monday when it fell from -1.7 to -2.3. It recovered slightly after that to end the week on Friday at -2.1. Read more at: https://t.co/RTrKzljo5t

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

Almost as sharp fall in risk appetite y-day as when Russia went into Ukraine 24 Feb. Our #riskappetiteindex fell by 0.6 st dev to -2.3 from -1.7. The fall was broad-based as all 8 factors contributed but mostly so did VIX and MOVE. -2.3 is the lowest risk appetite since 12 May

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

Large moves in Scandies today! #EURSEK close to its upper 2 st dev level which rarely is broken while #EURNOK is closing in on its fair value after having operated with a NOK overvaluation for a while. Driver is clearly falling risk appetite with #VIX shooting up from 28 to 33.

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

What a day... #EURSEK more than 2% higher after a dovish #Riksbank rate decision. Largest daily change since March 2020 during the early pandemic. But fair value rose similarly as both the rate spread driver and risk appetite (following US CPI) argues for the upside!

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

Why not expect lower EUR/USD? It is an empirical observation where smaller deviations tends to be driven by spot correcting towards its fair value while larger deviations tends to be corrected by fair value changing and EUR/USD establishing at a new level.

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

Huge move higher in #EURUSD y-day by 1.4 figs, 3.3 st dev larger than usual. EUR is overvalued by 2.7 st dev vs its short-term fair value which however indicates a regime shift taking place rather than that one should expect an imminent correction lower in EUR/USD.

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

"Därför är kronan undervärderad" heter det nya avsnittet i SEBs Makropodd där jag tillsammans med @CarlHammerFX och @OlleHolmgren1 diskuterar den svaga svenska kronan, dess stora undervärdering och vad vi tror händer framöver. https://t.co/BtMMDSZkQK

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

Push higher in #EURSEK has lost its momentum. Our short-term fair value model has moved sideways the past days showing that drivers no longer support a continuation higher. If risk appetite normalizes more one should expect fair value to fall & assert downside pressure on EURSEK.

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

New Zealand in the limelight after lockdown just ahead of (previously) anticipated #RBNZ hike (18 Aug). Rates lower after having risen past month, leveraged funds with sensitive net long #NZD/USD position, NZD a bit overvalued but with general risk-off NZD/JPY reacts the most.

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

Time for G10 currency corrections according to our short-term fair value approach. The greatest contrarian opportunities identified are for EUR/NOK to correct lower, USD/JPY higher while both NOK and SEK should strengthen vs USD. More here: https://t.co/o20WQZT2vK

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

Large misvaluations in G10 currencies have formed this week. Previous similar surges in misvaluations have corrected within 3-4 days this year which, if repeated, indicates corrections to set in today or on Monday.

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

Hi! It is a proprietary model using fundamentalal variables to derive a fair price for EUR/SEK. If EUR/SEK deviates outside the confidence bands there is an increasing probability for a correction towards fair value. Ie it is a multi-factor mean reversion indicaror ☺️

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

#EURSEK correcting lower towards its fair value as the SEK headwinds from the equity dividend season abates. We believe the downside now will dominate also supported by the Riksbank being pressured about Swe homeprice which reduces, the already low, probability for a rate cut.

[Jonas Olavi @j_olavi]

Äntligen fredag för då är det dags för ett nytt avsnitt av Börssnack. Denna gång hälsar @SEBGroup s vassa kvantstrateg @karlsteiner_ på och berättar om kluriga modeller han använder.
https://t.co/xRmu53Fevh
https://t.co/whkzrDQo3c
https://t.co/maZg5KfG4b
https://t.co/YXhFqgMBc8

[Karl Steiner @karlsteiner_]

Swedish dividend season begins which usually is a headwind for #SEK (on avg -2.2% vs both the EUR & NOK late Mar to late May). We expect a break above the 10.20 resistance for the 1st time in 2021 but look to sell on rallies around 10.35/10.40. More here: https://t.co/AkYi3wKTjX