Karman @karman81 - Twitter Profile

karman81 retweeted

about 15 hours ago

If you guys remember last November-Feb the environment was tough. I ran a poll on X asking everyone "If you hadn't placed a trade since November, would your account be higher or lower?" I believe 80% said higher. Before that, the previous 6 months in the market were pretty easy to get traction in new positions and make progress. Then all of a sudden everything still looked similar to your eye but things felt way tougher. Stops hit a lot, breakouts failed often, and most of us placed a lot of trades during that period only to grind our accounts down because the conditions shifted. The first reaction when this happens is thinking you are doing something wrong. You question yourself and your strategy but most likely your entries are fine, the setups are fine, the market environment just changed and environment is more important than any setup. The first 2 weeks of this recent uptrend you could buy anything and it was up 20% the next day. Good entries were rewarded, bad entries were rewarded. When the environment shifts even the best setup is more likely to fail than a bad setup in a strong environment. I have no idea how this plays out but after last week I feel like its likely we chop for a few weeks at least, which would be healthy if this uptrend is going to continue. If we do chop around, theres probably going to look like unlimited opportunities similar to the past few weeks, but it will be harder to make progress. Things will likely feel tough even if they look good and its important to use that as feedback to slow down instead of thinking you are doing something wrong all of the sudden, getting frustrated, and giving back $ you made from April/May. If we chop for a few weeks and then have another leg higher I'd expect it to be of similar strength as the last 2 months. That would be another window where making progress is easy. My job until easy windows open up is to not dig a hole while waiting. Chopping yourself up hurts your account and your confidence so when the easy window is back you end up hesitating. At the moment I think this is healthy pause within a massive uptrend... maybe that changes... but it doesn't matter how it plays out if its tough to get traction and my equity curve is going down I ease up and raise cash. If things start to work and feel easy then lean into it. Environment > setup. Before you start thinking ur entries are bad and ur doing something wrong step back its probably the environment. I dont think this is another Nov-Feb market we will enter atleast not for as long, just using it as its most recent memory of difficult for most of us.

NickSchmidt's tweet photo. If you guys remember last November-Feb the environment was tough.

I ran a poll on X asking everyone "If you hadn't placed a trade since November, would your account be higher or lower?"

I believe 80% said higher.

Before that, the previous 6 months in the market were pretty easy to get traction in new positions and make progress.

Then all of a sudden everything still looked similar to your eye but things felt way tougher. Stops hit a lot, breakouts failed often, and most of us placed a lot of trades during that period only to grind our accounts down because the conditions shifted.

The first reaction when this happens is thinking you are doing something wrong. You question yourself and your strategy but most likely your entries are fine, the setups are fine, the market environment just changed and environment is more important than any setup.

The first 2 weeks of this recent uptrend you could buy anything and it was up 20% the next day. Good entries were rewarded, bad entries were rewarded. When the environment shifts even the best setup is more likely to fail than a bad setup in a strong environment.

I have no idea how this plays out but after last week I feel like its likely we chop for a few weeks at least, which would be healthy if this uptrend is going to continue.

If we do chop around, theres probably going to look like unlimited opportunities similar to the past few weeks, but it will be harder to make progress.

Things will likely feel tough even if they look good and its important to use that as feedback to slow down instead of thinking you are doing something wrong all of the sudden, getting frustrated, and giving back $ you made from April/May.

If we chop for a few weeks and then have another leg higher I'd expect it to be of similar strength as the last 2 months. That would be another window where making progress is easy.

My job until easy windows open up is to not dig a hole while waiting. Chopping yourself up hurts your account and your confidence so when the easy window is back you end up hesitating.

At the moment I think this is healthy pause within a massive uptrend... maybe that changes... but it doesn't matter how it plays out if its tough to get traction and my equity curve is going down I ease up and raise cash. If things start to work and feel easy then lean into it.

Environment > setup.

Before you start thinking ur entries are bad and ur doing something wrong step back its probably the environment.

I dont think this is another Nov-Feb market we will enter atleast not for as long, just using it as its most recent memory of difficult for most of us.

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Karman

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