If you guys remember last November-Feb the environment was tough.
I ran a poll on X asking everyone "If you hadn't placed a trade since November, would your account be higher or lower?"
I believe 80% said higher.
Before that, the previous 6 months in the market were pretty easy to get traction in new positions and make progress.
Then all of a sudden everything still looked similar to your eye but things felt way tougher. Stops hit a lot, breakouts failed often, and most of us placed a lot of trades during that period only to grind our accounts down because the conditions shifted.
The first reaction when this happens is thinking you are doing something wrong. You question yourself and your strategy but most likely your entries are fine, the setups are fine, the market environment just changed and environment is more important than any setup.
The first 2 weeks of this recent uptrend you could buy anything and it was up 20% the next day. Good entries were rewarded, bad entries were rewarded. When the environment shifts even the best setup is more likely to fail than a bad setup in a strong environment.
I have no idea how this plays out but after last week I feel like its likely we chop for a few weeks at least, which would be healthy if this uptrend is going to continue.
If we do chop around, theres probably going to look like unlimited opportunities similar to the past few weeks, but it will be harder to make progress.
Things will likely feel tough even if they look good and its important to use that as feedback to slow down instead of thinking you are doing something wrong all of the sudden, getting frustrated, and giving back $ you made from April/May.
If we chop for a few weeks and then have another leg higher I'd expect it to be of similar strength as the last 2 months. That would be another window where making progress is easy.
My job until easy windows open up is to not dig a hole while waiting. Chopping yourself up hurts your account and your confidence so when the easy window is back you end up hesitating.
At the moment I think this is healthy pause within a massive uptrend... maybe that changes... but it doesn't matter how it plays out if its tough to get traction and my equity curve is going down I ease up and raise cash. If things start to work and feel easy then lean into it.
Environment > setup.
Before you start thinking ur entries are bad and ur doing something wrong step back its probably the environment.
I dont think this is another Nov-Feb market we will enter atleast not for as long, just using it as its most recent memory of difficult for most of us.
What a day, what a week.
Only still holding 1/4 of my $ARM position from 208. It was basically running for 2 weeks without a break. Having already locked in decent profits I will see how this behaves next week. Some consolidation will be nice and healthy.
Stopped out of my $ONDS position I have started yesterday, very heavy market today
Sitting on the side lines watching how we close today. I would like to see some consolidation into next weeks. Looking Relative Strengths names
$DOCN so far the hero in my port today helping a lot.
Recorded this last week for subs explaining why I was buying it.
3 weeks tight after a huge move = wheres sellers?
Even with low volume afterhours selloff, I am holding my remaining $ARM, I will only close the position if closing below 10 MA, we will see how the market continues tomorrow
Stopped out of $QBTS and $RXT (adjusted risk to LOD)
The good, I stuck to my risk, reduced my risk, as price action isn't in my favor
The improvement, I was up on both positions at least 3R/4R, but I was waiting for 5R for first trim.
Watchlist for tomorrow.
Make sure to save this post so you can review these charts before tomorrow's session.
$AOSL
$APH
$CAT
$MSTR
$MRVL
$NET
$OKLO
$RGTI
Took another stab at $RR at 3.13, risking 3, liking this area and possible break of 3.4
Also started a position of $INTC at 106.44, risking LOD - really liking the first 15/30 minute hammer candle and had multiple 5 minute green candles after.. now 15 minute pivot confirms
Dan Zanger; โgapping up with no volume, likely sell down right away, gapping down on light volume, buying opportunity. Gapping up or down on heavy volume, likely extend from thereโ
Great learning from Momentum Masters Book