Daniel Kaufman

Real Estate Developer | Shaping vibrant, sustainable communities nationwide | Builder. Strategist. Explorer.

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

We are teasing a new mountain resort development concept today. Coming Winter 2027. Here is why we are building it.

Mountain towns are the most supply constrained housing markets in the country. Everyone builds for the top of the market, nobody builds for the people who run the lifts, pour the coffee, and teach the kids.

This project treats housing, hospitality, and community as one system. That is the whole thesis. Details when we are ready. Follow along.

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

The procurement window is closing. Move while it is still open.

I have spent 25 plus years on job sites and across the table from general contractors, and the current cost environment is not a blip. It is a structural repricing of what it costs to build in America.

JLL's 2026 midyear update confirms what I have been seeing in my own bids and buyouts all year:

→ Construction costs are up roughly 5% year over year, with more escalation coming in the back half of 2026

→ Contractors with data center work now carry 12.2 months of backlog vs 8.3 months without. AI demand is pulling labor and subs out of the general market

→ 61% of U.S. metro markets are labor constrained today, rising to 72% by 2027. Skilled trades do not relocate. A framing crew in Nashville does not solve your problem in Salt Lake

→ Fewer than 20% of contractors expect margins to shrink. That is pricing power, and when your counterparty has pricing power, your only leverage left is timing

What we are doing about it at Kaufman & Company:

Locking GMP contracts earlier in design than I would have considered comfortable five years ago. Securing long lead trades, electrical, mechanical, structural steel, as early as the drawings allow. Underwriting escalation honestly instead of hoping costs revert to pre 2026 levels.

The owners who win the next 24 months will treat contractor relationships as the strategic assets they are, commit early, and price schedule risk at the term sheet, not at buyout.

Full breakdown on my Substack: https://t.co/p8Bo8ckoiE

#RealEstate #ConstructionCosts #Development #PrivateCredit #CRE

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

Homebuilders just handed apartment owners a gift. Most people haven't noticed yet.

Housing starts fell to 1.18M in May, the weakest pace since April 2020. Single-family completions dropped 16.8% year over year. And a record share of new homes are listed for sale but not yet under construction.

Translation: builders are pausing on purpose. Hold the lot, delay the start, wait for demand.

I've spent 25+ years building and lending across housing markets, and here's the lesson that keeps repeating: supply decisions made today show up in fundamentals two to three years from now.

So play it forward.

The for-sale pipeline that would have hit in 2027 and 2028 is being deferred right now. Fewer new homes means fewer renters leaving the pool. Rent concessions sitting near a 10-year high of 11% won't survive that environment.

Meanwhile, New York is showing us what scarcity does. Roughly 50,000 residents are expected to leave the city this year, and vacancy is still projected at just 2.4% in 2026, the lowest of any major US market. Only 15,000 units are under construction, the thinnest pipeline in a decade.

Scarcity beats demographics. Every time.

Add a labor market that's cooling but not breaking, and a Fed under Chair Warsh that reacts to data instead of publishing roadmaps, and you get the setup: this is the part of the cycle where patient capital gets rewarded.

Operators who use this window to stabilize lease-ups and tighten operations will look very smart in two years. The best entries rarely feel comfortable in the moment.

I broke down the full picture, the builder pullback, NYC, Los Angeles, and the June jobs report, in my latest Substack post.

Read the full analysis here: https://t.co/1aTnznhybI

If you invest in or operate multifamily, it's worth five minutes.

#RealEstate #Multifamily #Housing #CRE #Investing

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

Everyone is celebrating the wrong number.

New York City delivered 38,682 apartments in 2025. The strongest year since 1965, while national multifamily construction fell to a 15-year low.

Impressive? Yes. Enough? Not close.

The metro is still short roughly 400,000 homes. Median one-bedroom rent just hit a record $4,000. At 2025’s record pace, it would take a decade just to catch up to today’s demand. Not tomorrow’s. Today’s.
I broke down the full story in my latest piece, including three takeaways I think most coverage is missing:

1New York’s formula is not magic. Rezonings opened the land. The 485-x abatement fixed the capital stack. Remove either one and NYC looks like the rest of the country.
2The Sun Belt is not the opposite story, it is the same story on a lag. Today’s supply glut in Austin, Nashville, and Tampa is masking a 2027-2028 affordability crunch. The Southern Squeeze is still coming.
3Record years built entirely at the luxury tier do not solve a workforce housing problem. The 80 to 120 percent AMI band, the teachers, nurses, and first responders, remains the most undersupplied segment in American housing. That is the gap we are attacking at Oldivai with employer-anchored land and modular delivery.

A record year that covers less than 10 percent of the shortfall is not a victory lap. It is a diagnostic.

Full analysis here: https://t.co/DnNg6vnXtE

What is your read, is New York’s surge sustainable once the incentive cycle matures, or was 2025 a pull-forward?

#RealEstate #Housing #Multifamily #CRE #WorkforceHousing #NewYork

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

Honored to have my analysis featured in LinkedIn's Top News storyline, "Big Southern Cities Feel the Affordability Squeeze."

The numbers behind the story are stark. Nashville home prices are up nearly 60% since the end of 2019. Property taxes and insurance are climbing right behind them, and longtime residents and small businesses in cities like Nashville and Atlanta are getting squeezed out of the very markets their work built.

I've been writing about this as the Southern Squeeze, and my view as an operator with 25 plus years in development is straightforward. The Sun Belt's growth story was built on affordability. That advantage is eroding, and the metros that respond with real workforce housing supply, not just luxury product, will be the ones that keep their momentum. The rest will price out their own labor force and stall.

This is exactly where we're focused at Kaufman & Company and Oldivai, building housing for the people who make these cities run.

Read the full storyline here:
https://t.co/mRGX1qYufu

#RealEstate #WorkforceHousing #SunBelt #HousingAffordability #Development #Nashville #Atlanta

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

You don’t need another opinion. You need someone who’s done it.

90 minutes, direct with Daniel. Deal thesis, entitlement risk, pro forma stress test, capital structure — written findings included.

$1,500, credited toward any retainer.

https://t.co/MZFSfmFJy3

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

Bloomberg called it the "Southern Squeeze."

I've been watching it happen from the ground — as a builder, investor, and developer active in these markets.

Nashville. Atlanta. Charlotte. These cities spent a decade being sold as the escape hatch from high-cost coastal living. Lower taxes. Cheaper land. Room to grow.
That story is over.

Affluent transplants followed the narrative, home prices doubled, and now gas + housing costs are compressing the very people who built these cities. The Sun Belt's affordability edge is eroding — fast.
But here's what the mainstream press keeps missing:

This isn't a market failure. It's a structural gap that didn't get filled fast enough. And for developers and investors paying attention, it's one of the clearest signals I've seen in years.

I wrote about what's actually happening, what the bifurcation of these markets looks like, and where the next chapter of the "affordable South" narrative lands.

More importantly — what it means if you're building or deploying capital right now.
Read the full breakdown on my Substack 👇
🔗 https://t.co/lFg1TNu0wc

If this resonates, drop a comment — I want to hear from developers, operators, and investors who are navigating these markets firsthand.

And if you're not subscribed yet, this is the kind of analysis I publish regularly. Subscribe so you don't miss the next one.

#RealEstate #HousingMarket #SunBelt #MultifamilyInvesting #BuildToRent #WorkforceHousing #RealEstateDevelopment #KaufmanCo

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

Two stories dropped recently that every serious real estate operator and infrastructure investor needs to read together.

One is about a mill town in Maine that's been waiting years for something — anything — to replace the jobs that vanished when the Androscoggin paper mill closed.

The other is about Florida, one of the most developer-friendly states in the country, where at least 20 counties have now passed or are actively discussing moratoriums on data centers.

Read them separately: two local stories about community pushback.

Read them together: a structural collision between the demand curve of AI infrastructure and the social contract of American land use.

That collision is going to reshape where capital flows, how projects get permitted, and what developers need to understand before they drop a shovel in the ground.

I've been building in this space — through ServerDomes, our AI-ready data center infrastructure group. Here's what the Maine-Florida contrast is teaching me:

→ Brownfield over greenfield, every time if you can get there
→ Power independence is a competitive moat, not a nice-to-have
→ Community engagement is a pre-condition, not a PR exercise
→ The regulatory environment is fragmented and moving fast — that creates opportunity for operators who know how to navigate it

The Jay, Maine project is a template. The Florida debacle is already a case study.

Full breakdown on Medium 👇

https://t.co/VYVr5CNI9r

#DataCenters #RealEstate #AIInfrastructure #Infrastructure #CRE #ServerDomes #KaufmanCo #PropTech #Development

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

The Wall Street Journal ran a headline that stopped me cold:
"Chicago Missed the Tech Boom. Quantum Computing Gives It a Second Chance."

We've been saying this for two years.
Not because we're lucky. Because when you've spent 25 years watching infrastructure precede investment, you learn to read the room early.

Here's what's actually happening right now:
→ A 128-acre campus on Chicago's South Side is becoming the largest quantum computing hub in North America — anchored by IBM, PsiQuantum, and Diraq
→ Illinois hosts the ONLY two federally funded National Quantum Research Centers in the country ($250M in renewed funding)
→ $30 BILLION in data centers is projected to flow into Northwest Indiana — and 3,000 acres are already under site control

This isn't hype. This is committed capital.
I wrote a full breakdown in my latest Substack — what quantum computing actually is (without the buzzwords), why Chicago's research infrastructure is irreplaceable, and why NW Indiana is the adjacency play most people are missing.
If you're a developer, investor, or operator watching this space, you need to read this.

🔗 Link below — read it, subscribe if it's useful, and tell me:

Are you bullish or skeptical on the Midwest quantum opportunity?

Drop your take below. I read every comment.

https://t.co/5pJseCcdhd

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

A 309-acre former Killington ski base just hit the market for $4.2M.

Private mountain club. Boutique resort. Killington partnership.

Or the opportunity everyone’s been sleeping on?

I ran the numbers. Here’s my full take 👇

https://t.co/galGckeA97

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

The market isn't moving in one direction. And that's exactly the point.

Too many investors make broad sector bets — "industrial is hot," "multifamily is softening" — and miss what's actually happening underneath the headline.

Two themes are defining my thinking heading into the back half of 2026:

📊 The K-Shaped Economy
Affluent consumers are spending. Lower- and middle-income households are pulling back. That divergence is showing up in real operating performance across every asset class:

→ Senior housing is #1 in MetLife's latest rankings — especially communities charging $10K+/month
→ Luxury hotels are growing revenue while economy hotels are down ~5%
→ Cold storage dropped 7 spots as 300+ new operators flooded the market since 2020
→ SFR climbed 5 positions as the build-to-rent thesis quietly matures

🏙️ Multifamily Momentum ≠ Absolute Strength
Austin and San Jose lead CoStar's momentum index — yet both still have negative rent growth. That's not a contradiction. That's the signal.

Momentum is a leading indicator. By the time a market looks unambiguously strong, most of the upside is already priced in. Watch where fundamentals are improving, not just where they're strongest.

Jacksonville posted a 170bps vacancy decline. Supply pipelines are shrinking in Austin, San Jose, and select Sun Belt markets. The setup is there — it just requires nuance to see it.

3 things I'm taking away:
✅ Segment within sectors — picking the right sub-segment is where the real work happens
✅ Momentum is a leading indicator — get there before the consensus does
✅ Supply is the story — the next cycle will be defined by what doesn't get built

I wrote this up in full on Medium. If you're thinking about where to deploy capital or how to read this market, I think you'll find it useful.

🔗 https://t.co/8cCgPXLBE9

#RealEstate #RealEstateInvesting #Multifamily #SeniorHousing #BuildToRent #MarketAnalysis #DanielKaufman

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

The Senate just passed a housing bill 89–10.

Here's what it actually means — and where it still falls short.
https://t.co/by4yT7ZVGo

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

A Hike Is Now More Likely Than a Cut

The Fed just unanimously dropped its easing bias, the shortest statement in recent memory, and the brevity said as much as the words.

Read the full piece: https://t.co/0TDGPcxWHi

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

Launching U.S. Real Estate Journal: Housing markets, development economics & RE investment from an active operator.

First piece: institutional capital fled workforce housing corridors — that’s the opportunity, not the problem.

https://t.co/1MA2RFdBuG #RealEstate

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

Construction input costs just posted their fastest annual growth since the pandemic — up 9.6% YoY. Steel +7%, copper +24%. If your budget was locked 90+ days ago, it’s already stale.

Broke down what it means for your next deal 👇
https://t.co/yTyKjkyt9T

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

“Affordable housing” in high-cost cities can qualify households earning $200K+.

The barista splitting rent with 5 roommates? Priced out.

The AMI benchmark is broken, and we’re building outside of it.

Read the full article in Citybiz: https://t.co/5i3itbPLBJ

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

Hartford, CT just reclaimed America’s #1 hottest housing market.

5.3× national avg demand. 75% below pre-pandemic inventory. Homes selling in 25 days.

And institutional capital still hasn’t shown up.

That’s the opportunity 👇

https://t.co/DdlMIsFDPf

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

I’ve been in deals so complex it took an hour to explain them.

No more. My new rule: if I can’t explain it in two sentences, I’m out.

Here’s what that shift changed for me 👇
https://t.co/ZcS42xPmbj

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

This isn’t a market update. This isn’t a humble brag.

It’s me pulling back the curtain on what’s actually broken in real estate, and what I’m doing about it.

No course. No fee. Just real conversation.

⤵️ The Hard Math of Helping
https://t.co/zvPRpKZiE3

[Daniel Kaufman @kaufmanredev]

Florida is not one market.

✦ Jacksonville: cap rates 6.5–7.5%, #2 job market in the US
✦ Orlando: structural workforce housing shortage + hospitality gap
✗ Miami: #1 global bubble risk per UBS
✗ Tampa: prices down 6%, condos down 12%

https://t.co/Yjw3d5kAr0