kaulboy

gambling my piggy bank

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

.@shayne_coplan @Polymarket

$74M of volume handed to ten wallets who treat your oracle like their personal fleshlight

your "mstr-sold-btc-by-may-31" market is resolving NO.

the 8-K filed june 1 confirms mstr sold 32 btc between may 26-31. on-chain shows ~411 btc moved to coinbase prime on may 29, first outflow in 3.5 years per @arkham. june 30 and december 31 sub-markets both at 100% YES because the sale fucking happened in the window

your rules name three resolution sources: MSTR filings, on-chain data, consensus reporting. all three confirm sale in window. resolving NO requires every voter to check which way the whales pissed and aim the same direction

then you dropped a banner saying "confirmation achieved outside of the market's time frame does not qualify" and quietly rewrote the question from "did mstr sell btc by may 31" to "did a press release land by may 31." you ran the first one for 35 days, ate $74M of volume on it, and resolved the second one. clarification dragged wherever the bag needed it to go

mstr files weekly on mondays. every trader bidding YES knew the 8K was coming. smart money front ran the disclosure exactly as the rules were written. then a discord circle jerk of UMA bagholders reframed event timing as announcement timing mid dispute, and every voter who could read the room said yes sir to avoid getting slashed

easy fix: when primary resolution source confirms event in window, market resolves on the event. if you want announcement timing markets, write the fucking words "publicly confirmed by [deadline]" into the rules. you override sports payouts when umpires fuck up. all it takes is a junior engineer and a weekend to ship the same logic. you have a bunch of UMA whales on speed dial and shipping the fix means admitting that out loud

ngmi

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

@nic_carter same dudes are gonna win the yes holders their class action airdrop

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

@nic_carter very well written

esp that they need to yeet their markets team and hire a bunch of shysters

[nicolas, 30 ans @nic_carter]

https://t.co/Hnlg3pl92Q

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

only place to be during devcon

teaming up with the generational talent @frdeepesh

[Deepesh @frdeepesh]

https://t.co/qZvI4KeUYO

The afterparty. No pitch decks, just a proper Mumbai rave for core Web3 founders, builders and capital.

150/1000 spots vanished already. Only 50 auto-approvals left before we turn on strict, manual gatekeeping for everyone else.

Nov 4. 21+

RAVECON

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

@KookCapitalLLC @Polymarket fuck @Polymarket

https://t.co/tReUx4L8QN

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

.@shayne_coplan @Polymarket

$74M of volume handed to ten wallets who treat your oracle like their personal fleshlight

your "mstr-sold-btc-by-may-31" market is resolving NO.

the 8-K filed june 1 confirms mstr sold 32 btc between may 26-31. on-chain shows ~411 btc moved to coinbase prime on may 29, first outflow in 3.5 years per @arkham. june 30 and december 31 sub-markets both at 100% YES because the sale fucking happened in the window

your rules name three resolution sources: MSTR filings, on-chain data, consensus reporting. all three confirm sale in window. resolving NO requires every voter to check which way the whales pissed and aim the same direction

then you dropped a banner saying "confirmation achieved outside of the market's time frame does not qualify" and quietly rewrote the question from "did mstr sell btc by may 31" to "did a press release land by may 31." you ran the first one for 35 days, ate $74M of volume on it, and resolved the second one. clarification dragged wherever the bag needed it to go

mstr files weekly on mondays. every trader bidding YES knew the 8K was coming. smart money front ran the disclosure exactly as the rules were written. then a discord circle jerk of UMA bagholders reframed event timing as announcement timing mid dispute, and every voter who could read the room said yes sir to avoid getting slashed

easy fix: when primary resolution source confirms event in window, market resolves on the event. if you want announcement timing markets, write the fucking words "publicly confirmed by [deadline]" into the rules. you override sports payouts when umpires fuck up. all it takes is a junior engineer and a weekend to ship the same logic. you have a bunch of UMA whales on speed dial and shipping the fix means admitting that out loud

ngmi

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

.@shayne_coplan @Polymarket

$74M of volume handed to ten wallets who treat your oracle like their personal fleshlight

your "mstr-sold-btc-by-may-31" market is resolving NO.

the 8-K filed june 1 confirms mstr sold 32 btc between may 26-31. on-chain shows ~411 btc moved to coinbase prime on may 29, first outflow in 3.5 years per @arkham. june 30 and december 31 sub-markets both at 100% YES because the sale fucking happened in the window

your rules name three resolution sources: MSTR filings, on-chain data, consensus reporting. all three confirm sale in window. resolving NO requires every voter to check which way the whales pissed and aim the same direction

then you dropped a banner saying "confirmation achieved outside of the market's time frame does not qualify" and quietly rewrote the question from "did mstr sell btc by may 31" to "did a press release land by may 31." you ran the first one for 35 days, ate $74M of volume on it, and resolved the second one. clarification dragged wherever the bag needed it to go

mstr files weekly on mondays. every trader bidding YES knew the 8K was coming. smart money front ran the disclosure exactly as the rules were written. then a discord circle jerk of UMA bagholders reframed event timing as announcement timing mid dispute, and every voter who could read the room said yes sir to avoid getting slashed

easy fix: when primary resolution source confirms event in window, market resolves on the event. if you want announcement timing markets, write the fucking words "publicly confirmed by [deadline]" into the rules. you override sports payouts when umpires fuck up. all it takes is a junior engineer and a weekend to ship the same logic. you have a bunch of UMA whales on speed dial and shipping the fix means admitting that out loud

ngmi

[Orange @OrangeSBS]

The downfall of polymarket.

The team resolved the “microstrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31” market to No.

The problem is they literally sold Bitcoin in May.

It’s not even up for debate. The filing says they sold Bitcoin. That’s a fact.

If a tree fell in the forest on May 31st, but someone didn't discover it until June 1st, then Polymarket would resolve that the tree fell on June 1st

If users can’t trust markets to be resolved based on what actually happened, the whole product falls apart.

Pretty hard to justify using a prediction market when objective facts apparently don’t matter.

This is basically free advertising Hip4 hyperliquid

Hyperliquid is just superior

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

@jacqmelinek what if its @Polymarket

https://t.co/xlcykEw58C

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

.@shayne_coplan @Polymarket

$74M of volume handed to ten wallets who treat your oracle like their personal fleshlight

your "mstr-sold-btc-by-may-31" market is resolving NO.

the 8-K filed june 1 confirms mstr sold 32 btc between may 26-31. on-chain shows ~411 btc moved to coinbase prime on may 29, first outflow in 3.5 years per @arkham. june 30 and december 31 sub-markets both at 100% YES because the sale fucking happened in the window

your rules name three resolution sources: MSTR filings, on-chain data, consensus reporting. all three confirm sale in window. resolving NO requires every voter to check which way the whales pissed and aim the same direction

then you dropped a banner saying "confirmation achieved outside of the market's time frame does not qualify" and quietly rewrote the question from "did mstr sell btc by may 31" to "did a press release land by may 31." you ran the first one for 35 days, ate $74M of volume on it, and resolved the second one. clarification dragged wherever the bag needed it to go

mstr files weekly on mondays. every trader bidding YES knew the 8K was coming. smart money front ran the disclosure exactly as the rules were written. then a discord circle jerk of UMA bagholders reframed event timing as announcement timing mid dispute, and every voter who could read the room said yes sir to avoid getting slashed

easy fix: when primary resolution source confirms event in window, market resolves on the event. if you want announcement timing markets, write the fucking words "publicly confirmed by [deadline]" into the rules. you override sports payouts when umpires fuck up. all it takes is a junior engineer and a weekend to ship the same logic. you have a bunch of UMA whales on speed dial and shipping the fix means admitting that out loud

ngmi

[arjun @arjunmxyz]

all you have to do is start using @everydaydotapp

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

@adiiHQ @frdeepesh brother are u 21+

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

everyone at devcon is going to be talking

ours is the room where you stop talking and disappear into the music

me + @frdeepesh. underground sound, 21+. curated guest list so apply early

https://t.co/OnoiqdJkuB

[Shubham Jain @jainshubham2707]

https://t.co/pPCVuFEGxx

[Deepesh @frdeepesh]

Mumbai during @EFDevcon week is going to be completely overwhelming

So we’re building a place for everyone to catch up, cool off, lose track of time, and disappear into underground music for a night

Founders. Hackers. Creators. Degens

For 21+ only 🥃

https://t.co/qZvI4KeUYO

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

@Polymarket @UMAprotocol https://t.co/J5nWaIWa6V

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

@shayne_coplan @Polymarket your oracle just resolved the trump-xi iran/nuclear market NO

trump's exact quote: "we did discuss iran. we don't want them to have a nuclear weapon"

- WH pool note #5, filed 11:55 AM Beijing (Danny Kemp, AFP, on-camera real time)
- TVB Hong Kong yt metadata: was_live, timestamp 11:56:11 AM Beijing
- every major broadcaster ran LIVE chyrons
- kalshi resolved the same market correctly

UMA voted NO because the pavilion was "closed press." brother the broadcast happened. on live tv. it's on youtube right now with was_live attached to it.

and this is not the first time we're doing this:
- ukraine mineral deal: $7M market, resolved YES with no deal signed, one wallet swung it with ~5M UMA
- zelensky suit: $160M+ market, every outlet AND POLYMARKET'S OWN ACCOUNT called it a suit, resolved NO, ~$25M staked by whales to make it happen
- now this: $31M currently, the most active market on your platform, flipped by a low-turnout governance vote

UMA's market cap is smaller than the volume of a single disputed market on your venue. top 10 wallets control >50% of voting power in disputes. ~95% of supply held by large holders. you are running a $9B platform on top of an oracle a handful of retards can rug for eight figures

you already override baseball payouts when umpires fuck up. add a human/AI last resort layer for high volume markets with primary source evidence. it's not philosophically harder than what you're already doing

kalshi is eating your volume every week because of exactly this. traders don't want to gamble on whether a UMA whale woke up short. fix it or watch the centralized competitor win the entire prediction market category

ngmi

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

post-mortem on the trump-xi iran market on @Polymarket

@UMAprotocol resolved NO. 19.15M of 19.34M tokens voted NO. 99% consensus across 614 wallets jerking each other off in formation. ~$52M event, one of the biggest political markets of the month

trump said "we did discuss iran. we don't want them to have a nuclear weapon" during the bilateral. WH press pool filed the quote at 11:55 AM Beijing. TVB hong kong's youtube broadcast metadata returned was_live + unix 1778817371 (11:56:11 Beijing). two independent primary sources, same minute. kalshi resolved YES because their resolution team can read a fucking newspaper

UMA voted 99% NO anyway

a 99% consensus on a contested market is the bug. you don't get 614 wallets agreeing unanimously when BBC, reuters, AP, the WH pool, and youtube's own platform metadata all point the same way. that's a discord circle jerk calling itself an oracle

here's the mechanic: UMA slashes minority voters. once whales signal direction in the commit phase, every other voter folds like a cheap suit to protect their bag. every vote on UMA is bag holders falling in line behind whoever moved first. the DVM was supposed to prevent collusion. it just made it efficient. 99% is what 614 cowards look like when they're scared of losing 0.1% of their stack

third time this year:

- ukraine mineral deal ($7M): no deal signed, resolved YES. one wallet dropped 5M UMA and rewrote reality like it was a tweet edit
- zelensky suit ($160M+): BBC, reuters, NYT, NYP, and polymarket's own social account called it a suit. resolved NO. whales staked $25M to pretend a suit wasn't a suit because their bag said so. that's where we are
- trump-xi iran ($52M+): WH pool, youtube was_live, kalshi resolved YES, every major broadcaster ran LIVE chyrons. resolved NO with 99% consensus by a token worth less than the market it just rugged

the pattern: in any market over $5M, whoever signals first with size wins. evidence doesn't matter. precedent doesn't matter. polymarket's own social account telling you the answer doesn't matter. that's the entire product. a $9B fintech that hands its resolution layer to ten anonymous wallets and prays

meanwhile kalshi just reads the press pool and pays out. every rug here is free customer acquisition for them. @shayne_coplan hasn't said a word because admitting the truth means killing the UMA cope publicly. he can fix this with a 200-line typescript file. he won't, because shipping it means saying out loud what every trader in this space already knows: the oracle is fucked

every trader paying attention now knows what polymarket actually is. size up on a polymarket dispute and you're betting on which whale wants the payout more. UMA is a HOA where the biggest bag runs the board. the "decentralized oracle" is a discord circle jerk with a bunch of pussies saying yes sir to avoid being slashed

polymarket team knows. now the rest of us do too

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

@Polymarket @UMAprotocol https://t.co/9zjbI2Gh5c

[arjun @arjunmxyz]

just came across this bizarre @Polymarket settlement where whales seem to have turned a yes or no market into a debate club for subjective truth

for context, the market was about whether Trump said Iran / Strait / Nuclear during the summit. from what evidence i've seen those conditions were met, the market initially reacted like YES was obvious and the issue only began when people started arguing over whether the clip counted as live or pre recorded. somehow what should have been a simple rules based resolution turned has now turned into a semantic dispute where people are arguing over latency of a stream and what "live" really means

the whole point of prediction markets is that rules are meant to be evaluated as they were written. in this case, the original rules favoured YES and even after the later clarification, YES still seems like the common sense outcome if you are not deliberately trying to make the matter more complicated than it is

what makes this worse is that @Kalshi which is a regulated venue, resolved the same market as YES. here what good is decentralization if the decentralized version can be captured by whales and used to bend objective facts into whatever interpretation benefits them?

this is a prime example where market has stopped being about whether the event happened and became about who had enough influence to decide what the event meant

once interpretation can be shaped after the fact through loose interpretations and concentrated voting power, you are no longer betting on reality and are now betting on governance politics

prediction markets only work if traders believe the resolution layer is neutral. the moment people feel like whales can turn a factual market into a subjective one, the game stops being about being right and starts being about who has the most voting power

hopefully common sense prevails here and the decision is overturned

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

@Polymarket @UMAprotocol https://t.co/6JMCuGJ71E

[Eternity @ParetoPrincipl]

Polymarket needs to manually review the Trump-Xi Iran/Nuclear/Strait dispute before binary NO finalizes.
Trump said the words. The event qualified.

Q&A counted under the rules.
C-SPAN gave real-time live attribution.
Multiple completed live-broadcast archives exist. YouTube metadata shows live status.
PTS/AP evidence shows raw pool-feed infrastructure.

If this is not enough for YES, then the rule is impossible to apply consistently and the fair fallback is P3. This is now a ~$50M market-integrity issue, not just a trader complaint.

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

UMA voted 99% NO. wrote up exactly how a discord circle jerk just rugged a $52M market in front of everyone: https://t.co/oUj2KBfHdQ

[kaulboy @kaulboy]

@shayne_coplan @Polymarket your oracle just resolved the trump-xi iran/nuclear market NO

trump's exact quote: "we did discuss iran. we don't want them to have a nuclear weapon"

- WH pool note #5, filed 11:55 AM Beijing (Danny Kemp, AFP, on-camera real time)
- TVB Hong Kong yt metadata: was_live, timestamp 11:56:11 AM Beijing
- every major broadcaster ran LIVE chyrons
- kalshi resolved the same market correctly

UMA voted NO because the pavilion was "closed press." brother the broadcast happened. on live tv. it's on youtube right now with was_live attached to it.

and this is not the first time we're doing this:
- ukraine mineral deal: $7M market, resolved YES with no deal signed, one wallet swung it with ~5M UMA
- zelensky suit: $160M+ market, every outlet AND POLYMARKET'S OWN ACCOUNT called it a suit, resolved NO, ~$25M staked by whales to make it happen
- now this: $31M currently, the most active market on your platform, flipped by a low-turnout governance vote

UMA's market cap is smaller than the volume of a single disputed market on your venue. top 10 wallets control >50% of voting power in disputes. ~95% of supply held by large holders. you are running a $9B platform on top of an oracle a handful of retards can rug for eight figures

you already override baseball payouts when umpires fuck up. add a human/AI last resort layer for high volume markets with primary source evidence. it's not philosophically harder than what you're already doing

kalshi is eating your volume every week because of exactly this. traders don't want to gamble on whether a UMA whale woke up short. fix it or watch the centralized competitor win the entire prediction market category

ngmi