Bret Bucklen

All opinions are my own

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

@jenniferdoleac @Arnold_Ventures Big news! You have accomplished amazing things at AV! You’ve leveled up the field in terms of pushing credible, casual research & evaluation like none other. It’s hard to over-state what you’ve accomplished. I’m excited to continue to follow your work in your next new adventure!

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

@Rafa_Mangual Good taste! Padron 1926 is my second favorite.

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

@Abt_Thomas we shouldn’t lose sight that recidivism rates are still unacceptably high and that most in-prison interventions are ineffective at reducing recidivism when evaluated rigorously. Critiques of recidivism metrics, as fair as they are, shouldn’t distract from this. There’s work to do

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

@KevinARing In our 2022 Recidivism Report at @CorrectionsPA, we defined this distinction in order to try and make it accessible for policy-makers using PA data https://t.co/4dH6rqkbcE

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

Got to enjoy a cigar this past weekend with my old friend, @lonecrim. He even brought me a copy of his new book, which I’m super excited to read!

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

@drantbradley Example # 1,380 of you citing a body of research on here and apparently either not knowing or not understanding the difference between causation and correlation.

[Arnold Ventures @Arnold_Ventures]

New podcast alert! Fighting Crime with host @cristinatquinn is coming May 28. Produced by Arnold Ventures and Indio Media, Fighting Crime dives into the world of crime, policy, and economics to uncover the evidence of what actually works to improve public safety.

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

@lonecrim Didn’t we go to an In-n-Out Burger at ASC in San Fran? Please don’t let them take over In-n-Out

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

Episode #22 - New episode of #PracademicallySpeaking. We recorded inside SCI Chester’s “Little Scandinavia” prison unit. Dr. Jordan Hyatt breaks down the philosophy, the randomized trial, and what the data is already showing. @CorrectionsPA https://t.co/3YkT8v8Szl

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

@lonecrim Congrats on the book release! Huge accomplishment!

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

@drantbradley Correlation doesn’t equal causation. My guess is that almost all of this association is spurious, but we need better causal research to know for sure.

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

@CrimeMusica Congrats!

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

Episode #21 - New episode of #PracademicallySpeaking. A discussion with Randee Brant( Chief of Staff) on @CorrectionsPA new strategic plan. https://t.co/aqrKMXSDEI

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

@drantbradley Fathers might be the most important predictor of faith persistence but not necessarily the most important CAUSE of faith persistence. Correlation does NOT equal causation. I'm not aware of a significant body of causal research on the impact of fathers on faith persistence.

[Jennifer Doleac @jenniferdoleac]

I know so many policmakers and practitioners who are desperate for information on which prison programs (if any) are effective. How should facilities use their scarce resources - in terms of staff time and funding? Do existing programs make any difference, in the short term or after release?

Traditionally, research in this space has compared inmates who participate in programs (or - worse - complete those programs) with inmates who do not. But it's not random who participates in & completes programs. Those who do were likely encouraged to sign up by case managers, based on their specific needs, or they volunteered based on their motivation to change. Facilities also typically require good behavior in order to participate — this is a way for them to incentivize that good behavior, to keep facilities safer.

This is all fine and good, but it means that program participants are different in many ways — most unobservable in the data — that make apples to apples comparisons impossible. If we are comparing motivated, well-behaved people with unmotivated, poorly-behaved people, are we surprised that the former group is less likely to reoffend later? Of course not. We shouldn't attribute differences in future behavior to the program they participated in — but this is what too many researchers do.

Enter Steeve Marchand and his colleagues. They are finding and using clever natural experiments to quantify the value-add of various prison programs. I hope others take their methods and apply them in other settings. It's time to get serious about what works in this space, so we can use jail and prison time as the intervention point that it is.

Check out my conversation with Steeve for more.

[Jennifer Doleac @jenniferdoleac]

Great article about my new book — The Science of Second Chances — in @voxdotcom. Let's go make some positive change!

[PA Department of Corrections @CorrectionsPA]

The Pennsylvania Department of Corrections Office of Reentry formally recognized SCI Frackville and SCI Cambridge Springs for their extraordinary achievement through the Recidivism and Desistance Initiative (RDI) as both institutions exceeded their Recidivism Reduction goals every month in 2025. This resulted in a consistent reduction in recidivism for 12 consecutive months.

This milestone reflects the dedication, collaboration, and commitment of staff members who work every day to support successful reentry and positive outcomes.

The overall goal of the RDI is to launch a state-wide effort at reducing recidivism, increasing desistance, and rewarding locations who are meeting their goals. The DOC Office of Reentry and Bureau of Planning, Research, and Statistics track data from all areas of the agency to set the goals, and facilities compete against only themselves due to the unique nature of each one.

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

Episode #20 - New episode of #PracademicallySpeaking. There's a claim that college in prison cuts recidivism by 40 percent—but what happens when that claim is tested using an RCT? Dr. Sarah Tahamont discusses results from her @CorrectionsPA evaluation https://t.co/Fg6qViTNah

[Bret Bucklen @kbucklen]

@drantbradley Here’s what you’re missing. Your research base is junk science. Poor quality studies, unable to untangle causation from correlation. We need better consumers of research and scientific evidence. You can do better