These amazing works of AI tend to be misleading. Eg this one "only" took 4 hours to make. But turns out the creator spent 20 years in the industry. When I went to a Runway ML FB group, all the uploaded vids looked like slop. We're in the chaotic phase of a restructuring of the world economy due to new tech. This has happened a few times in the past that we can kinda know the shape of game, even if it will be unique. It's tempting to jump into new lanes. If I were in my 20s, I'd try all the lanes and see which ones I like. But I already know the answer! More than sunk cost fallacy, its my past obsessions which guide me which frontier I should invest my time and brainspace in: scholarship, education, and perhaps storytelling (with the written word), but keeping tabs on adjacent lanes and players.
What started off as a workflow test, just an idea, quickly had me locked into a flow state. 4 hours total from completely blank slate to finished video.
I canโt believe weโre all so lucky to have this at our fingertips.
๐ sound on ๐ @runwayml
I'm curious about how you'd solve this:
how do you capture all this? how you think, how you react, how you make decisions? i do not believe it should be thru passive background surveillance.
A possibly related experiment https://t.co/Ldl1QwhW3o
I experimented with A.I. in my retreat this year. I uploaded 100 journal-ish docs from the past 15 years to ChatGPT, totaling 91,707 words. Here's one output: sentiment analysis across time in diff dimensions.
It captured the bad thing that happened in 2018 and my recovery (more of reinvention) and the renewed joy in the past few years. I was surprised how it sensed the continued increase of my agency in the past 15 years (blue line). More than the graphical interpretation, what's interesting are its answers when I ask it why (eg, what made it think my agency was increasing all those years).
I also had it apply various personality models (OCEAN, MBTI, Enneagram) but nothing really surprising.
What else could I try?
Marc Andreessen just dropped ~105 mins on Lenny's Podcast covering AI, jobs, careers, and why everyone is panicking about the wrong thing.
Just the clearest macro framework I've heard on where AI actually lands.
My notes:
๐ญ. ๐๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฟ๐ถ๐๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฎ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐บ๐ฒ๐ป๐ ๐ต๐๐บ๐ฎ๐ป๐ถ๐๐ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐ ๐ถ๐.
US productivity growth has been running at half the rate of the 1940-1970 era and a third the rate of 1870-1940. The global population is declining below replacement in dozens of countries, including China. Without AI, we would be panicking about economies shrinking from depopulation, not job loss.
The timing is almost miraculous. This is what Andreessen means when he says the real boom has not started yet. We have been in a 50-year productivity drought, and most people do not even realize it.
๐ฎ. ๐๐ ๐ถ๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฝ๐ต๐ถ๐น๐ผ๐๐ผ๐ฝ๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ'๐ ๐๐๐ผ๐ป๐ฒ.
Isaac Newton spent decades trying to transmute lead into gold and never succeeded. AI does something more powerful: it converts sand (silicon) into thought. The most common material in the world is the rarest output.
This one metaphor reframes the entire AI conversation. You do not have a job loss problem. You have a philosopher's stone sitting on your desk that you are not using enough.
๐ฏ. ๐๐ ๐บ๐ฎ๐ธ๐ฒ๐ ๐ด๐ผ๐ผ๐ฑ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ผ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ด๐ผ๐ผ๐ฑ, ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ด๐ผ๐ผ๐ฑ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ผ๐ฝ๐น๐ฒ ๐๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฐ๐๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐น๐ฎ๐ฟ๐น๐ ๐ด๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฎ๐.
The best coders right now are not reporting 2x productivity. They are reporting 10x. The gap between "pretty good with AI" and "elite with AI" is widening, not narrowing.
This is the most important signal for career planning right now. If you are just using AI to do the same job slightly faster, you are leaving the real leverage on the table.
๐ฐ. ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ฒ'๐ ๐ฎ ๐ ๐ฒ๐ ๐ถ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ป ๐๐๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ๐ผ๐ณ๐ณ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ป ๐ฃ๐ ๐, ๐ฒ๐ป๐ด๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐, ๐ฎ๐ป๐ฑ ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐๐ถ๐ด๐ป๐ฒ๐ฟ๐.
Every engineer now thinks they can be a PM and designer. Every PM thinks they can code and design. Every designer knows they can do both. And they are all correct, because AI enables each role to absorb the tasks of the other two.
I have seen this firsthand in the investing world. The analyst who can build models and write narratives is 5x more valuable than someone who can do only one. The same convergence is happening in the product.
๐ฑ. ๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ด๐ฒ๐ ๐ง-๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฑ. ๐๐๐ถ๐น๐ฑ ๐ฎ๐ป ๐-๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฑ ๐ฐ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐ฟ.
Scott Adams could not have created Dilbert by being the world's best cartoonist or the world's best business mind. He needed both. The additive effect of two skills is more than double. Three skills are more than triple. Larry Summers puts it differently: don't be fungible.
The person who can code, design, and ship a product is no longer a unicorn. They are the new baseline for "extremely valuable." If you are only one of those three things, you are increasingly replaceable.
๐ฒ. ๐๐ผ๐ฏ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐น๐ฒ๐ ๐ผ๐ณ ๐๐ฎ๐๐ธ๐. ๐ง๐ฎ๐๐ธ๐ ๐ฐ๐ต๐ฎ๐ป๐ด๐ฒ. ๐๐ผ๐ฏ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐๐ถ๐๐.
Executives never typed their own emails in the 1970s. Secretaries printed incoming emails and hand-delivered them. Both roles survived the transition, just with different task sets. The same will happen with AI and coding, PM work, and design.
Everyone obsessing over "will my job disappear" is asking the wrong question. The right question is: which tasks in my job are about to rotate, and am I ready to pick up the new ones?
๐ณ. ๐๐ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐ฑ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ถ๐ ๐ท๐๐๐ ๐๐ต๐ฒ ๐ป๐ฒ๐ ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฏ๐๐๐ฟ๐ฎ๐ฐ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป ๐น๐ฎ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ.
We went from human calculators to machine code to assembly to C to scripting languages. Each layer was dismissed by the previous generation. Each time, the new layer won, and total coding employment grew. AI coding is the same pattern, not a rupture.
The Perl programmers of 2005, laughing at JavaScript, are the C programmers of 1995, laughing at scripting. History rhymes, and it always rewards the people who adopt the next abstraction first.
๐ด. ๐๐ ๐๐๐๐ผ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐ฑ๐ฒ๐บ๐ผ๐ฐ๐ฟ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐๐ฒ๐ ๐ฒ๐น๐ถ๐๐ฒ ๐ฒ๐ฑ๐๐ฐ๐ฎ๐๐ถ๐ผ๐ป.
One-on-one tutoring is the only method proven to move a student from the 50th to the 99th percentile (Bloom's two sigma effect). It used to require being born into royalty. Alexander the Great was tutored by Aristotle. Now, any kid with a phone can access the same quality of personalized instruction.
This is the most under-discussed consequence of AI. Every parent reading this should be supplementing their kid's education with structured AI tutoring right now. Not next year. Now.
๐ต. ๐ฃ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ฟ ๐ง๐ต๐ถ๐ฒ๐น ๐๐ฎ๐ ๐บ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ด๐ต๐ ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ป ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐ฒ๐๐๐ฒ๐ป ๐ผ๐ฟ๐ถ๐ด๐ถ๐ป๐ฎ๐น๐น๐ ๐ฎ๐ฑ๐บ๐ถ๐๐๐ฒ๐ฑ.
Progress in bits masked stagnation in atoms. The built world is barely different from 50 years ago. Same bridges from the 1930s, same dams from the 1910s. Cartels, monopolies, unions, and regulations prevent the rate of change that people had 100 years ago.
This is also why AI will not transform everything overnight. Institutional sclerosis is real. Healthcare alone could take a generation. If you are building in atoms, budget for a war of attrition, not a blitzkrieg.
๐ญ๐ฌ. ๐ ๐ผ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ถ๐ป ๐๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ด๐ฒ๐ป๐๐ถ๐ป๐ฒ๐น๐ ๐๐ป๐ธ๐ป๐ผ๐๐ป.
Within a year of ChatGPT's launch, five American companies, five Chinese companies, and open-source all had roughly equivalent models. DeepSeek emerged from a hedge fund in China and basically replicated the American labs' work. The smartest AI insiders privately admit there aren't many real secrets among the big labs.
This is the most honest take I have heard from a top-tier VC. No one knows if the value accrues to models, apps, or infrastructure. Anyone who tells you otherwise is selling you certainty they do not have.
๐ญ๐ญ. ๐๐ ๐๐ค ๐๐ถ๐น๐น ๐ฏ๐น๐ผ๐ ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐๐ ๐ต๐๐บ๐ฎ๐ป ๐น๐ถ๐บ๐ถ๐๐.
Human IQ caps around 160 because of biology. Current AI models test around 130-140. There is no theoretical ceiling stopping AI from reaching 200, 250, or 300. The concept of AGI as a "human equivalent" will be a footnote because AI will race past that threshold.
This is the frame that makes the "will AI take my job" debate feel small. We are not building a replacement for human thought. We are building something that will be better than the best human thought has ever been.
๐ญ๐ฎ. ๐ง๐ต๐ฒ ๐ฏ๐ฒ๐๐ ๐ณ๐ผ๐๐ป๐ฑ๐ฒ๐ฟ๐ ๐ฎ๐ฟ๐ฒ ๐ฟ๐ฒ๐๐ต๐ถ๐ป๐ธ๐ถ๐ป๐ด ๐๐ต๐ฎ๐ ๐ฎ ๐ฐ๐ผ๐บ๐ฝ๐ฎ๐ป๐ ๐ฒ๐๐ฒ๐ป ๐ถ๐.
Layer one: AI redefines products. Layer two: AI redefines jobs within companies. Layer three, which has not dropped yet: AI redefines the very concept of having a company. The holy grail is the one-person, billion-dollar outcome, and the best founders are chasing it.
Satoshi did it with Bitcoin. Instagram and WhatsApp came close with tiny teams. The question is no longer if this is possible with software. The question is how many of these we will see in the next five years.
AI is the philosopher's stone. The question is whether you pick it up.
The full podcast is worth your time. Link in replies.
it is looking like my next gig is not a book but an after-school academy where diagnosis, individualized learning plans, and the act of learning is orchestrated by ai and mimetic desire is orchestrated by humans