Setelah dihitung2 dan dipikir2...
Real bottom or ****. No in between.
Leaning toward the latter. Same setup, same situation. Nothing has really changed. BI rate? Was the issue ever about rates in the first place? No?
Banyak yang ribut ngehujat dia karena posisinya.
He shorted $IDX. And he was right.
Sekarang index naik sehari dan everyone back jadi analis. One day does not invalidate a thesis.
Yang bikin saya respect bukan posisi-nya tapi conviction-nya. Out of every market in the world, dia pilih short Indonesia. Ada model di balik itu.
Daripada ngata-ngatain, coba pelajarin model yang dia pakai.
Saya sendiri salah baca situasi ini. Cost me money. Tapi apa saya berhenti belajar? No.
Was my thesis broken? Yes. Was it because of the company? No. The macro ate everything.
Instead of bashing, ask what he saw that you didn’t. That’s the more useful question.
The first 50 bps hike was quite a surprise, another 25 bps out of thin air was surely a signal of an emergency amid shrinking reserves. In the span of three weeks, we’ve hiked 75 bps, and the market is already starting to price in another 25 bps.
It was a necessary move, but economic growth will pay the price because the market demands something bigger (iykyk). Banks will likely revise their targets down from double-digit credit growth to the high single digits, and the nation's GDP growth targets will have to be recalibrated to make room for the sake of populist government spending.
This is what an actual Crash looks like and we remain Short of $IDX
> Bank Indonesia unexpectedly raised its base interest rate 25 bps to 5.5%Tuesday in off-cycle decision as it looks to support rupiah, sovereign bond markets. Comes just weeks after it raised by 50 bps to support currency which has reached successive record lows over past two months; sovereign bonds also sold off sharply and equity markets at four-year lows
Seorang user dari China bermain game referee simulator.
Ia memimpin pertandingan China vs Jepang. Dalam pertandingan tsb, ia berulang kali mengambil keputusan absurd yang menguntungkan tim China.
Hasil akhir China menang telak 4-0 atas Jepang. 😂
Sebenarnya ada beberapa akun yang menurut gw layak banget buat “menjual” tulisan mereka.
Citrini mungkin salah satu yang bisa nulis bagus dan tulisannya bisa dicerna retail.
Di level selanjutnya ada semianalysis.
$100 juta/tahun.
Atau sekitar Rp 1,8 T dari jual report.
Status turun ke frontier atau stand alone itu jika ada masalah transparansi data, capital control, sistem transaksi bursa yang masih outdated, metode akuntansi yang tidak internasional standard, jumlah saham yang memenuhi cut off size dan likuiditas (kalau ga salah) kurang dari 3
Harga saham yang turun, kebijakan pemerintah yang tidak market friendly, itu masih risiko pasar
🚨 #Nasdaq 100 Long-Term Warning
According to Elliott Wave Theory, Nasdaq has completed its major 5 Wave Impulsive Cycle.
Now the index could enter into a bigger ABC correction phase after this massive bull run. 📉
Our expected downside zone: 20,000 levels 🎯
Remember — biggest opportunities are created during the biggest corrections. #Nasdaq100 #ElliottWave #TechnicalAnalysis #StockMarket #WavesBulletin
I don’t really care much about chasing profits in the JCI anymore. I just want to see people who have already lost a lot of money still manage to keep their mental health and psychology sane. Losing that much money will or can cause people to become depressed, and that’s a problem that’s harder to fix than a financial loss alone.
Stay safe, everyone.
This too shall pass.