KeethTalks

Founder of Crypto Holdings Tracker | Building | Crypto | $GLXY | $BTC | $ETH | $SOL | $BNB | $SUI

[Reuters @Reuters]

Donald Trump told reporters that his team might buy US stakes in artificial-intelligence companies and said he would host a meeting with AI executives as soon as next week https://t.co/PEEBpte0jN

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

The AI buildout is absorbing capital at historic scale, creating temporary pressure across global markets. That does not weaken Bitcoin. It strengthens the case for scarce, liquid, digital capital. Bitcoin remains the premier asset for the long term. $BTC

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Bitcoin and Mungers Rule.

One has to wonder about the “AI is sucking up all the capital” narrative when nearly 8 trillion dollars still sits in money market funds earning a risk‑free yield, while fiat money loses something on the order of 8% of its purchasing power per year. In a market that noisy, the 200‑week Munger Rule is less a tactic than an x‑ray of who actually believes in compounding.

Buy at the upward sloping 200-week moving average.

Yes buy when there is blood in the streets.

But emotions get in the way.

The 200 week MA.

It marks the point where price has already done the damage and narrative has followed it down, where momentum, flows and sentiment have all turned against you, and where long-term value quietly reasserts itself. Narrative follows price.

When you should buy, you will not want to. The same is true of selling ( yes sell parabolic moves).

The excess return is therefore not informational. It is behavioural.
Most investors cannot do it. Emotions get in the way, simple human aversion to loss turn volatility into something to be avoided rather than harvested.

I call it the Munger Rule.

Have a nice day.

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

https://t.co/yeG4PgpjEq

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Four ideologies shape the Bitcoin community. Maximalists bring conviction. Capitalists bring integration. Technologists bring innovation. Fundamentalists bring preservation. Bitcoin reaches its full potential when these four forces work in harmony.

[Cathie Wood @CathieDWood]

The jobs report was a barnburner. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 172,000 versus expectations for 88,000, while prior months were revised higher by 93,000. Wage growth came in at roughly 0.3%.

Yet the market sold off.

In our view, the market is misreading the signal. It is assuming that stronger than expected employment and growth will cause a an acceleration in inflation. History would suggest otherwise. 

Productivity growth is running near 3%, while unit labor costs are hovering around 0.5%. Those are not the hallmarks of an inflationary boom. They are the hallmarks of healthy, productivity-driven growth that will lower inflation.

Meanwhile, the yield curve continues to flatten despite a roughly 55% increase in oil prices year-over-year based on a three month moving average. In past cycles, an energy shock of this magnitude steepened the yield curve when the Federal Reserve was accommodating it. Instead, the bond market appears to be discounting something much more powerful: the deflationary impact of technological innovation, particularly artificial intelligence, which is beginning to increase productivity across broad swaths of the economy.

If tensions with Iran ease and oil prices retreat, we believe inflation could move into negative territory before year-end.

In our view, the Fed made a historic policy error when it raised rates aggressively into what was largely a supply-driven inflation shock in 2022. We do not believe the next generation of monetary policymakers will be eager to repeat that mistake.

Notably, gold peaked on the day Kevin Warsh was appointed. The inflation trade may already be behind us.

If our research is correct, the next phase of this cycle could be characterized by accelerating growth, declining inflation, falling interest rates, and a strengthening U.S. dollar. That combination would create a remarkably supportive backdrop for innovation-led equities and the technologies driving the next productivity boom.

I discuss this framework in greater detail in this month’s episode of In The Know.

[David Sacks @DavidSacks]

While I’m no fan of socialism or arbitrary confiscations of wealth, I can see why Bernie Sanders’ proposal (for the government to take a 50% stake in AI companies) resonates, including with many on the right.

The CEOs of the leading AI labs have told us repeatedly that they will cause massive job loss. This is not a story that I believe, nor does the data bear it out, but this is what they have told us. Similarly, they have hyped the risks of AI without putting an equal or greater emphasis on the benefits or readily available mitigations.

Conservatives have another fear. The employees of the leading labs claim to be philanthropic, but what we’ve seen is massive enrichment of NGOs advancing an agenda at odds with traditional values, fueling a revolution against our cities and communities. Soros-maxxing is not charity in our book.

Anthropic and OpenAI have established themselves as Public Benefit Corporations. What could be more in the public benefit than using half the wealth generated by these companies (which trained for free on the collective knowledge of humanity) to pay down the national debt? There is no ideological bias in that philanthropy.

Dario and Sam have begun to walk back their claims of massive job loss, but the damage to public trust is done, and now the chickens are coming home to roost. I could almost support the Sanders proposal as a stupidity tax.

There’s just one problem. Nationalization of AI will accelerate the corporate-government fusion we’re already sliding toward. Conservatives rightly fear a Central Bank Digital Currency. They ought to be even more concerned about Central Government AI — a system with even more totalistic power over information, decision-making, and human behavior.

We saw how social media was weaponized to censor conservatives (including President Trump) in the last Democrat administration. The definition of “trust & safety” expanded to mean protecting the public from supposed psychological harms, micro-aggressions, and disinformation (you know, like hearing conservative ideas or true facts about Covid).

That “safety” agenda as applied to AI will be vastly more powerful and Orwellian. AI won’t just moderate posts; it will curate reality — with the ability to rewrite history, enforce ideological conformity, influence policy at scale, mass surveil Americans, and condition the benefits of the many systems it controls on approved behavior.

America won’t win the AI race if we beat China but end up with a CCP-style social credit system in the U.S. — and that is the danger as the government becomes more deeply involved in AI development and assumes direct ownership and control.

Conservatives are right to fear where this is all headed but ought to think more carefully about how regulations they are flirting with now (that are widely celebrated among those with a long history of lust for Big Government) will be used against them the next time a Democrat administration is in power.

[Nancy Pelosi Stock Tracker ♟ @pelositracker]

Once again, you're probably overthinking what stocks to buy ...

[Michael Saylor @saylor]

Capital markets are funding the AI buildout at historic scale: ~$400B over 6 months. Bitcoin ETFs have seen ~$4B of outflows since May 14, pressuring $BTC. This is a capital rotation, not a Bitcoin impairment. Volatility creates opportunity.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

In testimony today, the Secretary of the Treasury for the world’s largest economy declared that the United States is moving toward a formal strategic Bitcoin reserve.

Also, Saylor didn’t sell because Bitcoin is dead. He sold to prove its capital.

Meanwhile, the Bitcoin maximalists are still busy fighting each other and declaring Bitcoin dead.

All while short sighted investors sell Bitcoin and chase parabolic charts in AI. You know what they say: you can’t fix stupid.

[Hedgeye @Hedgeye]

The K-Shaped is now appearing in crypto

[Sundar Pichai @sundarpichai]

On Monday we announced an equity offering for Alphabet - part of our multi-year investment strategy to meet the AI opportunity ahead and support the demand we’re seeing from enterprises and consumers. Pleased to share the offering was well over-subscribed. We raised a total of ~$45B, with an additional $40B to come as part of an “at the market” program starting in Q3 (for a total of ~ $85B). A huge thank you to our investors, including Berkshire Hathaway who invested $10B.

[VirtualBacon @virtualbacon]

@RaoulGMI yeah and it's never the stock rally that drags crypto up. it bottoms on its own clock then runs, liquidity just confirms it after. 2022 did exactly this

[Charlie Bilello @charliebilello]

Bitcoin Returns since 2010...

$BTC

https://t.co/l5IYmkeySJ

[KeethTalks @keeth101]

👏👏👏

[Geiger Capital @Geiger_Capital]

ISM US Manufacturing Activity: 54.0

5 straight months of expansion…
2026 looking very different than 2022-2025.

[James E. Thorne @DrJStrategy]

Let’s be honest

The AI Earnings Super‑Cycle Has Arrived

First Dell and now HPE are telling investors the same thing: the AI earnings super‑cycle is no longer theoretical, it has arrived, and S&P 500 numbers are still too low. HPE is now guiding fiscal 2026 non‑GAAP EPS to roughly 3.35–3.45 dollars and free cash flow to at least 3.5 billion dollars—levels it had previously targeted for 2028—on the back of nearly 30–plus percent revenue growth and more than 70 percent networking growth this year. Dell, meanwhile, has turned into an AI systems pure play, with AI‑optimized server revenue exploding, a multi‑year backlog measured in tens of billions, and management now talking about AI server revenue running toward 50 billion dollars as data‑center capex accelerates rather than fades.

This is what an earnings super‑cycle looks like in practice: the core infrastructure providers are pulling multi‑year profit curves forward because AI demand is compounding from a high base, not rolling over. Scarcity in GPUs, power, networking, and physical capacity means the constraint is supply, not demand, and that in turn is forcing customers into larger, longer‑dated contracts to secure AI infrastructure years out. Ignore the noise about quarterly “AI capex deceleration.” First Dell, now HPE: the message is that the AI build‑out is accelerating, hardening into long‑term commitments, and dragging index‑level earnings power higher and faster than the current S&P 500 forecasts are willing to admit.

$Dell $HPE $NVDA

[Vlad Tenev @vladtenev]

Robinhood has officially arrived in Canada. 🇨🇦

We’ve closed our acquisition of WonderFi, marking our entry into Canada through one of the most well-respected crypto platforms in the country.

With 1 million international funded customers, Robinhood’s mission is going global.

[么 ꜱ ᴀ ᴍ ꪜ, @___TheGOOdWitch]

What a guy Richard Dawkins is👌🏻🙌🏼

[Dangerous Thoughts @DangerousThinkg]

Jordan Peterson shows incredible patience speaking with a leftist

He has made a career of speaking study backed, scientific truth to radicals that would upend society based on ill conceived notions