Kellyn Arnold

epidemiologist at IQVIA || interested in #causalinference, #statistics, and #epidemiology || pro-science, pro-feminism, pro-cat || own views

[Peter Tennant has moved to Bluesky @PWGTennant]

Our new study confirms the tragic consequences of delaying the UK's first lockdown.

If it started 1 week earlier, there would have been 20k-35k fewer deaths. The required duration, for the same exit incidence, would also have halved from 69 to 35 days
1/6
https://t.co/yldNj2HBJS

[CAUSALab @CAUSALab]

Predictive #AI systems often fail because of “dataset shift” or lack of “domain adaptation”.

Without new data to retrain the algorithm, an explicitly causal approach is needed: Enter Counterfactual Prediction.

@barbradickerman and colleagues explain here
https://t.co/Wk0Og8ER1W

[John Burn-Murdoch @jburnmurdoch]

For no particular reason ...

A Sunday thread highlighting just a tiny sample of the brilliant women whose tireless work has shaped my understanding of Covid-19

[Maarten van Smeden @MaartenvSmeden]

I think the division of modeling tasks into “descriptive”, “predictive” and “causal (explanation)” is too narrow. Based on experience we also need “to finish thesis”, “uncontrolled chaos” and “want to make a point”

[kim yi dionne (@dadakim.bsky.social) @dadakim]

CNN images department: still the worst. (HT @minh81)

[Kellyn Arnold @kellyn_arnold]

@PWGTennant One of these questions is 'disingenuous, snarky, and unconstructively provocative', while the other is (apparently) perfectly benign. Personally, I struggle to see the distinction.

[Kellyn Arnold @kellyn_arnold]

@PWGTennant That's fine to say, but how has your response to Maarten's question modelled 'decent behavior' and fostered 'an inclusive space'?

[Kellyn Arnold @kellyn_arnold]

@PWGTennant @MaartenvSmeden I really don't think you're in any position to be policing people's tone on Twitter, Peter.

[Footy Accumulators @FootyAccums]

Raheem f*cking Sterling ❤️❤️❤️

[Kellyn Arnold @kellyn_arnold]

What a wonderful way to start the week 💃🏻☀️🥇

[Kellyn Arnold @kellyn_arnold]

My arm is DEAD but feeling very grateful to have received my second jab yesterday 💪🏻

[Greg James @gregjames]

YOU HAVE NO AUTHORITY HERE JACKIE WEAVER.

Please set aside 20mins today to watch the best bits of the Handforth Parish Council Planning and Environment Committee.

The best British comedy in decades.

https://t.co/gN9gEGE77n

[Karen Throsby @thelongswim]

So it seems like the government's message is that women should stay home because those chores won't do themselves...

[Peter Tennant has moved to Bluesky @PWGTennant]

'Use of directed acyclic graphs (DAGs) to identify confounders in applied health research: review & recommendations'

Final version in @IJEeditorial!

#EpiTwitter #StatsTwitter #CausalTwitter #SER2020

https://t.co/2elISUpS0M

[Kellyn Arnold @kellyn_arnold]

@PWGTennant We can claim £6 per week tax relief from HMRC (https://t.co/bExhgHZmzL)