Chris Kelly

commodities trader

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@sumitdoriya21 Fable

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@Raentrading No one answers the emails at support. I paid for an eval but am not enabled for NYMEX, only CME. I trade WTI. Please reach out. Thanks

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

Yesterday I laid out four WTI scenarios. This morning the market handed us the de-escalation case — hard and fast.
WTI just crashed from $117 to ~$95. One of the biggest single-session drops since April 2020. The ceasefire came in under two hours before Trump's deadline, Pakistan brokered the bridge, and the risk premium unwound exactly the way it always does — instantly.
But $95 is not $67. WTI is still up 65%+ on the year. The war premium compressed, it didn't disappear.
What the market still hasn't fully priced:
→ 187 tankers are still stranded inside the Gulf right now → The Strait doesn't flip back on like a light switch → Iran declared victory and said it will regulate passage going forward — that's not a free waterway → Infrastructure damage means full production restart could take months
This is a ceasefire, not a peace deal.
The crowded longs are getting flushed. But the physical market is still tight. $95-100 is my consolidation range. Confirmed reopening with tankers actually moving gets you sub-$90. Talks break down before the two weeks expire? We retest $110 faster than most people expect.
Two weeks is a long time in energy markets right now.
Stay nimble.
#Hormuz #EnergyTrading #OilMarkets #NYMEX#OOTT

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@dollmogorov @JavierBlas Yes. spot on

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@IliaBouchouev Isnt there a plan where the barrels can stay in the SPR and you can store it there. shell game

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@IliaBouchouev You are correct in this strategy. The admin is trading everything . Why not the obvious that books revenue for the tax payers.

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@Amena__Bakr lots of posts of us f-35 shoooting down iranian drone. UNCONFIRMED

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@StevenL63239275 @HassanNJan online oil traders twitter

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@VKNGenergy I do miss the energy and the competition of being a floor trader . KELS

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@JuliOnTwtr got todays num? FJ has builds but posted red

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@carbonreports Challenge

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@EIAgov any update here?

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@ErikaTheBeaver trump is poking putin with stating NATO should shoot at russian planes in neutral airspace and...just said Ukraine will win back all of it's territory. Escalatory and dangerous

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@AdamMancini4 Long time sub. I want toknow inthis last 1/2 hour when ES rallies through 6438 and the 15 min bar settles at 6444.50
how do you know that is acceptance

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@Amena__Bakr power always seems to be in the wrong hands

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@SellingRips Thanks RIPS

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@AdamMancini4 whats your 1 indicator?

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@Amena__Bakr any color on the spike down just now?

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@Amena__Bakr Do you know the schedule for tomorrow? Thanks

[Chris Kelly @kelstrader]

@staunovo That's weekly option. Jan options Expiry Dec 13