Howie and Nick watched Jurgens be dog shit and single handedly blow up 5+ plays every game for 4 games in a row.
Bench your overpaid liability, you cowards.
#Eagles
BREAKING: Delco man sets up a bell in his front yard after the Phillies win and it actually rings.
The guy said he makes iron staircases for a living and had extra material to make the bell shape. He already had the bell too. He said he hopes kids ring it tomorrow morning before getting on the school bus.
“The bus stop is right there on the corner. I’m expecting a lot of ringing tomorrow morning.”
So fair warning: Don’t be surprised if you hear a lot of ringing in the morning, that’s just the sound of Phillies fans starting their day in Delco.
A $100 bet on red in American roulette has an expected value of -$5.26. Bet it every night for a year and your expected loss is about $1,920. Yet the casino has almost zero chance of losing. Here's the math that makes gambling a business and not a game
An American wheel has 38 pockets: 18 red, 18 black, 2 green.
Bet $100 on red:
- Win $100 with probability 18/38 (47.4%)
- Lose $100 with probability 20/38 (52.6%)
Expected value = (18/38 x $100) - (20/38 x $100) = -$5.26 per spin.
Those two green pockets are the entire business model.
Now look at it from both sides of the table.
You, one spin a night for a year (365 spins):
Expected loss: $1,920
Typical swing: about +-$1,900
So you still have about a 1 in 6 chance of finishing the year ahead. Your luck is still bigger than the edge against you.
The casino, 1 million spins a year:
Expected profit: $5.26 million
Typical swing: about +-$100,000
The edge is 50 times bigger than the noise, so the casino's chance of a losing year is effectively zero.
Same bet, same odds. The difference is volume.
That's the law of large numbers: randomness averages out, and the edge doesn't. The more times you repeat a bet, the more the result converges to its expected value.
The lesson isn't "never gamble." It's this:
Always ask which side of the edge you're on.
If the edge is against you, repetition guarantees you lose.
If the edge is for you, like owning a diversified slice of the economy for decades, repetition makes you the casino.
This MIT lecture covers the math behind it: random variables, distributions, and the Central Limit Theorem 🎥
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