Everyone Is Racing To Buy SpaceX At $161 Per Share.
Meanwhile $BTC Is Still Being Ignored Around $60Kโ$40K.
Most Investors Focus On Price.
Few Focus On Valuation.
That's A Costly Mistake.
Ask Yourself:
What Is More Realistic Over The Next Few Years?
๐ #Bitcoin: $64,000 โ $300,000+ (+370%)
OR
๐ $SPCX Adding Several Trillion Dollars In Additional Market Value
SpaceX Is One Of The Greatest Companies Ever Built.
But Great Companies Don't Always Produce Great Returns.
Especially When Expectations Are Already Sky High.
The Market Doesn't Pay You For Buying Quality.
The Market Pays You For Being Early.
Today The Crowd Wants Access To SpaceX.
Tomorrow The Crowd May Be Chasing Bitcoin At $300K+.
The Funny Part?
When Bitcoin Was $16K, Nobody Wanted It.
At $300K, Everyone Will Have A Reason Why They Always Believed In It.
The Biggest Returns Rarely Come From Following The Line.
They Come From Standing Where Nobody Else Wants To Stand.
Price Is What You Pay.
Valuation Is What You Get.
And Expectations Decide Everything. โฟ
The collective consensus amongst crypto X seems to be that the cycle bottom is in. That alone gets me pretty disinterested in looking for the low here.
Of course, the bear market according to the Havling Cycles Theory is not over until November 2026 - January 2027.
It is no surprise that "this time is different" is coming back up. This time, the plausible story is data interpretation.
A potential bullish divergence is forming on Weekly RSI, just like November 2022. Some metrics are bottoming out. From my perspective, most have not.
So, I will once again take the contrarian position during this bounce and say the cycle bottom is not in.
The opportunity I'm looking for is the trifecta of psychology, data positioning, and cycle position.
How low can $BTC go on this leg down?
My Target is $49-53k
That's where we could stop and consolidate for a month or two before the final capitulation ๐ ๐ฉธ
1st Leg Down: -36% (October-November)
2nd Leg Down: -38% (January-February)
So the 3rd Leg Down (May-June) could be the same -36% (to match the first one) or it could be 2% deeper than the 2nd one, just as the 2nd Leg Down was 2% deeper than the 1st one. That would be -40%
@hispanicnomad It's neither warm nor cold now. It's nice to walk around the city. This weekend the popular Pink Soup festival will be held for the 4th time in a row, which attracts many tourists. I recommend visiting Vilnius in the future :)