muad

love sosa, hate reaping.

[Ricky Ho @rickyho_1989]

Indonesian government seems so relaxed in facing the strongest "Super El Niño" in 500 to 1,000 years.

Why Indonesia Is So Vulnerable?

The Nomura scorecard in the chart places Indonesia as the third-most economically exposed market in the sample, behind India and the Philippines. Indonesia’s aggregate score of 102.0 is not driven by dependence on net food imports. Indonesia is actually a slight net food exporter, largely because palm oil and other agricultural exports offset imports of particular staples.

Its vulnerability comes from the domestic structure of the economy. Food represents 22.5% of Indonesia’s CPI basket, rice alone accounts for 3.4%, agriculture contributes 13.1% of GDP, and 27.3% of the workforce remains employed in agriculture. An agricultural shock therefore hits Indonesia through several channels simultaneously. It reduces output, raises consumer prices, damages rural incomes, weakens household spending and creates pressure for government intervention.

This is different from Hong Kong or Singapore, which import much of their food but have very small agricultural sectors and relatively low food weights in their CPI baskets. They suffer through import prices, but they do not simultaneously experience a large domestic production and employment shock.

Indonesia’s slight net food-export position also creates false comfort. Indonesia exports enormous quantities of palm oil, but it still depends on imports for wheat, soybeans, sugar, garlic and several animal-feed and food ingredients. Being a net exporter of food in aggregate does not mean being self-sufficient in the specific commodities Indonesians consume every day.

El Niño can therefore reduce exportable agricultural output while forcing Indonesia to import more staples. The net trade effect can turn negative even if global palm-oil prices rise.

[Ricky Ho @rickyho_1989]

One of Indonesia's biggest long-term economic challenges is not simply generating more growth, but improving the quality of that growth. The World Bank's analysis highlights a structural problem that is often overlooked: Indonesia has become an upper middle-income country while retaining one of the region's most informal labor markets. Fewer than one in five workers are employed in the formal sector according to internationally comparable measures, far below what is typical for countries at Indonesia's income level.

This matters because informal jobs tend to be less productive, pay lower wages, offer limited opportunities for skills development and innovation, and provide little or no access to unemployment insurance, paid leave or retirement benefits. A labor force dominated by informal employment inevitably limits productivity growth, and the numbers already reflect this. Output per worker has reportedly fallen from US$7,530 in 2015 to US$5,336 in 2023, an alarming reversal for an economy aspiring to become a high-income nation by 2045.

The problem extends well beyond the labor market. A highly informal economy naturally produces a narrow tax base because businesses and workers operating outside the formal system contribute less to government revenue. Indonesia's tax-to-GDP ratio has declined from around 17% in 1980 to just above 10% today, one of the lowest among major emerging economies despite decades of economic growth. This leaves the government with fewer resources to invest in infrastructure, education, healthcare and social protection, while simultaneously making it more difficult to provide the very benefits that encourage workers and firms to formalize in the first place. It becomes a self-reinforcing cycle where weak social protection discourages participation, which in turn weakens fiscal capacity even further.

This also helps explain why Indonesia can simultaneously attract robust foreign direct investment while domestic consumption, wage growth and household purchasing power remain under pressure. Investment builds factories, smelters and data centers, but unless those projects generate large numbers of productive formal jobs, the benefits remain concentrated and do not fully translate into stronger household incomes or a broader expansion of the middle class.

The government's Golden Indonesia 2045 vision ultimately depends less on attracting additional capital and more on dramatically improving labor productivity and formal job creation. Indonesia's working-age population is expected to expand by more than 15 million people over the coming years. If current trends persist, only around one in five of those new workers is expected to obtain a formal job, and for women the figure could be as low as one in ten. That would make achieving high-income status substantially more difficult.

The policy implication is clear. Indonesia does not simply need faster GDP growth, it needs growth that creates productive formal employment. Improving regulatory certainty, lowering the cost of formalization for SMEs, reforming labor regulations, broadening the tax base, strengthening vocational education and increasing the value of social protection are likely to be far more important than pursuing headline investment figures alone. The next stage of Indonesia's development will ultimately be determined not by how much capital enters the country, but by how many workers transition from low-productivity informal employment into higher-productivity formal jobs.

[Laura Sabino @mylaura_m]

-Hitler se matou em um bunker fedido enquanto via Berlim ser tomada
-Epstein ajoelhou na hora da prisão, passou os últimos dias isolado pedindo ajuda psicológica antes de se enforcar
-Mussolini se fantasiou p fugir
- Luis 6 se vestiu de mulher p fugir

Homelander agiu como todo poderoso fracassado quando perde o poder

[Eric Kripke @therealKripke]

HAHAHAHAH. He's posting. MULTIPLE TIMES. Also I have notes on his joke writing. #TheBoys @TheBoysTV

[Drafted @DraftedAI]

Outline any shape and Drafted turns it into a real house plan. 🏠

It's a new way to explore the different layouts and room configurations that are possible within your space.

Here's how it works 👇

[Entertainment Archive @_EntArchive]

How Americans spend their day

🎥: EEAGLI

[MF DOOM Insider @mfd00mbr]

due to inflation, Kanye West says one good girl is now worth 1,582.75 bitches

[First Squawk @FirstSquawk]

FTSE RUSSELL: INDONESIA'S SECONDARY EMERGING MARKET STATUS REMAINS UNCHANGED

[The Spectator Index @spectatorindex]

BREAKING: Trump announces ceasefire

[Kurrco @Kurrco]

Ye brought out Lauryn Hill as a special guest to perform "All Falls Down" at SoFi Stadium tonight 🤯

[Kat ⊷ the Poet Engineer @poetengineer__]

woa this is so fun!

[X T R E M E 𖤐₆₆₆ @XtremeMerch]

Angga Kusuma (Ex Taring) dan Darma Respati (Negatifa) menjadi gitaris terbaru Seringai 🤘🏼

[CG @cgtwts]

Claude users right now:

[Muhammad Sumbul @bitxt]

tante: kamu kapan install openclaw?

[Stitch by Google @stitchbygoogle]

Meet the new Stitch, your vibe design partner.

Here are 5 major upgrades to help you create, iterate and collaborate:
🎨 AI-Native Canvas
🧠 Smarter Design Agent
🎙️ Voice
⚡️ Instant Prototypes
📐 Design Systems and DESIGN.md

Rolling out now. Details and product walkthrough video in 🧵

[le.hl @0xleegenz]

Someone told me:

"Either increase sacrifice or reduce desire"

I can't sleep since then

[Figs From Plums @FigsFromPlums]

Art director Bob Barrie and Copywriter Dean Buckhorn's Time red border campaign

[🦫🇺🇾 @doubtpointv2]

They are not autistic. They're psychopaths. People smarter than you have already studied and written about this.

[madeleine✶ @pilatesgirly]

cathartic read after feeling stupid at uni