Kevin Cole

🏈 @Unexpected_Pts newsletter/pod. Previously Data Scientist @PFF. Stats are numbers, numbers are nerds, nerds are losers. Therefore, stats are losers

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

@Unexpected_Pts Entire NFL Week 8 Power Rankings pod here https://t.co/M3dlWz6R01

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

Yes, gambling can ruin relationships with your wife and children. But it can also be a bonding experience if you bring them into the action.

Words of wisdom on the @Unexpected_Pts pod

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

JSN also behind AFL legend Charley Hennigan. Check out his first seven games of the 1961 season

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

Through seven games, Jaxon Smith-Ngijba is slightly ahead of his pace last year, way ahead of record-holder Calvin Johnson (2012), but behind Tyreek Hill (2023)

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

NFL Week 8 Power Rankings https://t.co/pEdl68YSEW

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

Quarterback PFF grading and efficiency (EPA/play), through Week 7 MNF

- Jackson top-right, but on light volume
- Burrow has an elite PFF grade, not as strong efficiency
- Allen the reverse: strong efficiency and weaker PFF grade

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

Javonte Williams with a ridiculous jump in Week 7, all the way up to No. 2 in rushing EPA value this season

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

Quarterback efficiency (EPA/play) leaderboard, updated through Week 7 MNF.

Dak Prescott up slightly after a strong performance

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

@Pullthepocket @SharpClarkeNFL @Unexpected_Pts Yes.

Of course I like to highlight this stuff before poor performances so everyone can yell at me for being a wet blanket

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

Major refresh of the @Unexpected_Pts Bayesian Quarterback Rankings.

Uses Bayesian modeling, draft position prior and NFL evidence to project future adjusted EPA per play

The ranking movements are from preseason to now

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

@AngryBilliever I guess my post was confusing. It wasn't taking account of schedule in that. It was more what's most likely for the Raiders record and playoff probabilities. Once it's below ~5%, make the move. Cousins is more likely to lose to good teams

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

Here would be my QB transition plan for the Raiders.

@ Jets next week. Play Cousins and move on if you lose, keep him for a couple more weeks if you win.

Then it's @ 49ers, vs Seahawks and @ Broncos. Results will likely be poor. If so, you turn to Mendoza either after all three games, or after losses to the 49ers and Seahawks.

The Raiders schedule to finish out for Mendoza:
@ Browns
vs Chargers
vs Broncos
vs Titans
@ Cardinals
@ Chiefs

[Adam Schefter @AdamSchefter]

Raiders HC Klint Kubiak told reporters that Kirk Cousins is the team’s starting QB. “There is no controversy,” Kubiak said.

Raiders play at the Jets on Sunday.

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

@nhlsensandstuff When there was a big thing about which team to start Maye against a couple years back I was thinking, "just start him no matter the opponent" if you think he gives you a better chance to win

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

@nhlsensandstuff Yeah I'm not arguing strength of opponent, really. It's more maximizing chance of making the playoffs. So the opponents matter in likelihood to win with Cousins. After a bad stretch versus whoever, it's time to move with playoff probability < 5-7%

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

But I also don't really care if you move on earlier from Cousins. The Raiders have around 12-14% chance to make the playoffs now. That could be enough hope to hold on to Cousins, who hasn't been bad, a bit longer

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

Quarterback PFF grading & efficiency (EPA/play), through Week 7 SNF, min 90 dropbacks

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

NFL Week 7 Advanced Reviews https://t.co/2GTmLuCqcK

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

Kenneth Walker's rushing production was way off earlier pace in Week 7, now trailing Bijan Robinson in yards.

He's still leading in EPA value

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

NFL EPA leaderboards through Week 7 SNF @Unexpected_Pts

QB efficiency with min 150 dropbacks.

- Allen still on top
- Michael Penix and Sam Darnold rising
- Huge drop for Bryce Young

[Kevin Cole @kevin_cole]

Jaxon Smith-Njigba is head-and-shoulders above the rest of the NFL in box score and EPA value

[Tej Seth @tejfbanalytics]

Stats & Scheme topic this week: Blitzing is Back:

- Defenses are blitzing more previous seasons
- Blitzing is the most effective it’s been in 5 seasons
- More defenses are playing two high + zone behind their blitzes
- Blitzes on 3rd & 7+ have been *very effective* this season
- DB + LB blitzes have been lethal for opposing offenses