Kevin T. O'Donnell

Unorthodox technologist.Entrepeneur

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

And this is what they have passed today:

https://t.co/CBAADwKblm

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

This sordid mess. The Briefing says it is unlikely to be resolved through normal measures, but time will tell.

#TheBriefingUSA #PoliticalAnalysis #Congress #EpsteinFiles

https://t.co/Bx5uItDuVq

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

Key point: If 10–12 House Republicans bolt (e.g., over RIF language or SNAP), leadership will need a dozen Democratic yeses; Dems may prefer to make Republicans carry it. Any attempt to amend in the House would force another Senate vote and risk unraveling the 60‑vote coalition

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

It ain't over until it's over - latest whip count analysis of H.R. 5371 as it heads back to the House.

https://t.co/wUxSg516tU

#TheBriefingUSA #PoliticalAnalysis #Congress #Shutdown2025

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

I would pay attention to Division A, Section 118 of the amended H.R. 5371. Either this week or later, I bet there may be a fight over that.
https://t.co/9s5q0Gz3WA

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

Some sort of telephonic device, where his colleagues could have suggested it, or better yet, a digital information system which broadcasts relevant information, particularly in times of crisis, like a network or something

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

We'll see what happens, but right now it looks like some chickens were counted before they hatched with the Senate deal on H.R. 5371: 56 yea-40 nay on cloture so far, and the chamber is feeling a bit empty.

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

Ah, apparently, he wasn't in DC. If only there was some way he could have known that he should have been there....

[🔥 CEO Branding Expert @Ceo_Branding]

🚨 John Cornyn Negotiates Being Last Vote to End the Government Shutdown. Staging the Photo Finish.

John Cornyn is the 60th vote tonight to end the shutdown.

Why?

He’s got a tough race next year and he negotiated with Thune to be the decisive vote. Not early. Not quiet. The closer.

Why were we stuck at 56–40? Because everyone wanted that ad moment.

Cornyn is given it because he needs it the most.

Yes politics is this staged.

I guess whatever it takes to reopen the government.

Were you aware of these games?

Cornyn got it.

This isn’t just legislating.
It’s legacy crafting — in real time.

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

Trump and Vance's relative absence from the process may signal that they'll stay out of it and take credit for whoever wins. Meaning, there may be more latitude from the Exec than there is from the whips and leaders. But I am sometimes more optimistic than the system I built.

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

None of our Whipcount analyses for H.R. 5371 indicate any movement.

https://t.co/b1RrU6UVmv

#TheBriefingUSA #PoliticalAnalysis #Congress #Shutdown2025

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

The way I interpret that is that: no one is going to "defect," but there is an opportunity for some group of ambitious souls to break the logjam and make a big name for themselves with a bipartisan solution.

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

Here's the Senate vote result:

https://t.co/jHEji8O9wz

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

Much like S.J. Res. 81, on Oct 20, we predicted that S.J. Res. 77 would likely pass the Senate with 51 to 52 yeas if it got the time. Today's result was passing with 50 yeas. A good prediction, I'd say.

#TheBriefingUSA #PoliticalAnalysis #Congress

https://t.co/sMKoMpdDc3

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

Look for vote 187. And that rather elegantly demonstrates what I am trying to do with The Briefing. Personally, I'd never have spotted that. But it's right there in the whipcount analysis, footnote [2].

https://t.co/p7W4SjimYA

#TheBriefingUSA #PoliticalAnalysis #Congress

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

Fascinating. The Senate appears to pass S.J.Res 81 to terminate the emergency, i.e., tariff justification, with Brazil. While it seems unlikely this will pass the House, it is some movement. Still in line with the whipcount we did on Oct 20.

https://t.co/Hq6U30sKqy

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

This is due to a rules committee decision. If you didn't know to look for it, this particular hearing had nothing to do with Brazil and everything to do with judicial stuff.

https://t.co/PvaySYybiy

[Kevin T. O'Donnell @kevin_odonnell]

The beginning of a perhaps hopeless task to walk through the Congressional budget process straightforwardly. The first step is explaining "regular order". Bear with me, this is a beast.

https://t.co/WkDKtBTw4x

#TheBriefingUSA #PoliticalAnalysis #Congress #Shutdown2025