Why the bottom for $BTC is not in
Bitcoin's Realised Price is the average cost basis for all holders
Currently it is 53.6k
Bitcoin has NEVER bottomed in a cycle without trading below the Realised Price
2011 → BTC bottomed at $2.1, about 58% below the Realised Price of $5
2015 → BTC bottomed at $152, about 49% below the Realised Price of $300
2018 → BTC bottomed at $3.2k, about 47% below the Realised Price of $6k
2022 → BTC bottomed at $15.4k about 34% below the Realised Price of $23.3k
58%, 49%, 47%, 34% – see a pattern forming?
My prediction for the next Bitcoin bottom is the Realised Price minus 20-30%
In other words → 37.5k-42.8k
Bookmark this because I know I'm right
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What am i missing ?
VERY IMPORTANT CHART 🚨
I have shared this $GOLD/ $BTC chart almost a year ago, pointing out that once 0.02 Bitcoin equal 1 gold ounce, it should be considered the top for BTC, and 0.11 BTC equal 1 gold ounce should be considered the bottom for BTC! This happened in 2021 during the Bitcoin top, and during the Bitcoin bottom in 2022. Again, my analysis proved right this year by calling the Bitcoin top at $125,000 at a price of 0,02 BTC for one Gold ounce! Will we see the Bitcoin bottom again at 0.11 BTC for one Gold ounce ?
If we do the math, 1 BTC = $5,500 (gold price) / 0.11 ≈ $50,000, which matches my analysis of Bitcoin’s bottom for this cycle between $50k–$60k. It is playing out exactly as expected. If we calculate with a gold price of $7,000, the equivalent BTC bottom comes in around $63,000, which also aligns with my bottom target. In my opinion, Gold will continue to outperform BTC in the coming months.
This is no financial advice and educational content only
Guessing Silver has a blow off top in the coming months (Feb-May).
Historically that is when most tops for Silver occur.
Could find a low around late Q3/early Q4 which is also when Bitcoin may find a low.