khaled

Forex trader

[khaled @khaledgad]

The first estimate of German headline inflation came in at 8.6% year-on-year in December, down from 10% in November. The HICP measure also dropped, to 9.6% YoY, from 11.3% YoY in November. #EUR #Bearish

[khaled @khaledgad]

The #euro rose after the European Central Bank pledged further significant rises in interest rates last week and gets a further boost from strong German Ifo data on Monday, but it could stutter in 2023 as high rates hit the economy, Rabobank says in a note.

[khaled @khaledgad]

#Germany's monthly Ifo survey shows business sentiment improved in December, suggesting that although Europe's largest economy still faces a recession it's likely to be mild. #EUR

[khaled @khaledgad]

TE: The Ifo Business Climate indicator for #Germany rose for a third consecutive month to 88.6 in December 2022, the highest level since August and above market expectations of 87.4. #Sentiment improved despite high inflation and the ongoing energy crisis.

[khaled @khaledgad]

REUTERS: Kyodo news agency reported on Saturday that Prime Minister Fumio Kishida is aiming to make the Bank of #Japan's 2% inflation target a more flexible goal by revising its decade-old joint statement with the central bank, potentially paving the way for a tweak in its policy

[khaled @khaledgad]

ING: #US is now showing a broader slowdown in activity, there is arguably more room for cheer than recent price action suggests, as it means that the #pivot story, which is still well priced in by bond markets, does indeed look on track, despite what Fed officials say.

[khaled @khaledgad]

Bloomberg: Despite slowing #inflation and a smaller Federal Reserve #interest_rate hike, the S&P500 is slumping toward a rare large #December drop. The index is down 5.6% this month, which would be the third-largest year-end decline this century and just the sixth slide out of 22

[khaled @khaledgad]

After two dismal years, the tide is expected to turn for #Asian stocks in 2023. #China’s economic reopening and potentially weaker #dollar are set to drive outperformance. Regional stocks could climb 9% through the end of next year, according to a Bloomberg survey of strategists.

[khaled @khaledgad]

Bloomberg: The #dollar weakened slightly against most major currencies and the #yen rallied, boosted by a report that the Japanese prime minister may consider allowing more flexibility in the #monetary regime that has kept the nation’s interest rates at rock-bottom levels.

[khaled @khaledgad]

Bloomberg: #Asian stocks are poised to follow Wall Street lower as the Federal Reserve’s resolve to keep raising rates and the spread of Covid in China damped sentiment for riskier assets.

[khaled @khaledgad]

3/3
The reports are fueling suspicion that the Chinese government is covering up data after a surprise reversal in the country’s strict Covid-Zero policy. The spread of the virus has turned Beijing into a ghost town, while Shanghai will close most schools from today.

[khaled @khaledgad]

1/3
Bloomberg: The number of #Covid-positive dead arriving at Beijing’s funeral parlors and crematoriums is rising, according to media reports, despite #China not reporting a single fatality from the virus for two weeks.

[khaled @khaledgad]

2/3
Staff at one Beijing crematorium told the Financial Times they cremated the bodies of at least 30 Covid victims on a single day last week.

[khaled @khaledgad]

The S&P Global #US #Manufacturing PMI fell to 46.2 in December of 2022 from 47.7 in November, well below forecasts of 47.7, preliminary estimates showed. The reading pointed to the biggest contraction in factory activity since May of 2020.

[khaled @khaledgad]

#FED HAWKISH
#BOE DOVISH
#ECB HAWKISH

[khaled @khaledgad]

TE: The S&P Global #US #Services PMI slumped to 44.4 in Dec 2022 from 46.2 in the prev month and well below market expectations of 46.8. It signaled the fastest pace of contraction in the service sector for four months, also one of the quickest since 2009.

[khaled @khaledgad]

2/2
"The risk of a more #hawkish monetary policy is tilted to the upside as the ECB has indicated its uneasiness on the future inflation path, deeming that the recession won't be enough to tame soaring prices,"

[khaled @khaledgad]

1/2
Carmignac expects the #ECB to raise interest rates by 50 basis points this week but a #75bp hike shouldn't be discarded, Kevin Thozet, a member of the asset manager's investment committee says in a note.

[khaled @khaledgad]

3/3
"It is probably not enough to prompt the BOE into another 75 basis points hike on Thursday (a 57bp hike is priced) but will support sterling."

[khaled @khaledgad]

1/3
Sterling could rise against the dollar if data at 1330 GMT show a further easing in U.S. inflation in November, particularly after solid U.K. labor market data Tuesday, ING analyst Chris Turner says in a note.

[khaled @khaledgad]

2/3
U.K. average earnings jumped 6.1% in the three months to October while payrolled employees rose by 107,000 in November, which could support some of the more aggressive interest-rate rise expectations for the Bank of England, he says.