David Resaubreg

Founder and President of Rosenberg Research & Associates Inc.

Retweets, Likes and Follows are not endorsements.

[David Resaubreg @kim43477]

@EconguyRosie https://t.co/LhDqgv57Hr

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

SCAM ALERT! There is an AI scam, a total fraud, using me and my firm in advertisements to pitch penny stocks. Many people have been duped by these fake ads that have been found on Facebook, Instagram and TikTok and have lost a lot of money. These ads have not been taken down despite our repeated attempts to notify these sites. Please do not fall for this scam and report it if you come across these ads.

Here is a link to a recent Globe and Mail column on this fraud:
https://t.co/ztedQ0JeFb

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

Logan, Hammack and Kashkari all dissented at the Fed meeting in favor of a rate hike. What a big surprise. Same Gang of Three hawks who dissented at Powell’s last meeting on April 29th. They have zero influence outside of making headlines.

[David Resaubreg @kim43477]

@EconguyRosie https://t.co/BEZUZAnQC8

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

Ahead of today’s FOMC meeting, all the chatter is about elevated inflation. Meanwhile, oil and industrial commodity prices are well off their nearby highs. The USD is strong. There is no wage acceleration at all. Demand growth is now running at a stall-speed 1-1/2% annual rate. Core service sector price trends are decelerating nicely, and core goods prices are completely flat over the past six months. If you replace the shelter components of the CPI with real-time rent and home price data, core inflation is running at the grand total of 1.4%.

There are narratives and then there are facts. The Fed would need to have its head examined to raise rates today or even ratify market expectations of two hikes ahead.

Is WTI still north of $100/bbl?

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

Regarding today’s U.S. employment report, I recommend quickly adjusting the headline number for the World Cup effect by stripping out leisure/hospitality in the payroll report, as well as discerning the full-time/part-time split in the household survey. The most critical number will be average hourly earnings because, if we continue to see minimal pass-through from the wartime oil price shock into wages, then the legion of Fed hawks will really have no leg to stand on.

[David Resaubreg @kim43477]

@goudalf @EconguyRosie Many of my Twitter followers have already joined my WhatsApp

FREE TO JOIN My Real-time trading alerts and investment strategies Market forecast analysis

Reply with "2026" to my WhatsApp number [phone] to join for free

I POST ALL TRADES FOR FREE
🔗https://t.co/t3YxMPY5e0

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

I could not believe my eyes when I read what former Kansas City Fed President Esther George had to say in an interview today to the effect that she wouldn’t even wait till September to start hiking rates again.  And here we have Kevin Warsh at the helm, who prides himself on being an Alan Greenspan disciple (may the Maestro rest in peace).  The question is – would Greenspan really be talking about a rate hike?  He followed market indicators, not flawed government data like the CPI or PCE deflator.

As in:

(i) The yield curve:  The 2s/10s curve has flattened nearly +20 basis points since late May to just +30 basis points; (ii) The dollar:  In just five months, the DXY has strengthened nearly +6%; (iii) Credit spreads:  CCC-BB rated spreads have widened out more than +30 basis points since the end of May and are approaching 800 basis points for the first time since Liberation Day in April 2025; (iv) Commodity prices: The CRB index has rolled over by -13% from the nearby May peak; (v) Gold:  Down more than -10% in just the past month and by -27% from the early-year highs.

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

Post-Fed, the 2-year T-note yield has popped +9 basis points while the long bond has come down -3 basis points. The bond market’s way of telling the Fed that its hawkish tone will prove to be a policy blunder. Flatter yield curves = weaker growth and a nail driven into the risk-on trade.

[David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie]

Had the opportunity to join David Lin for a wide-ranging conversation on the Federal Reserve.

We covered a lot of ground, including the path ahead for policy under the new Chair, what current valuations may be telling us, and the outlook for markets.

My thanks to David for the discussion and opportunity to exchange views. Full interview linked below.

https://t.co/4VwkURm4u7

[Mario Nawfal @MarioNawfal]

INTERVIEW: IRAN WAR BRINGS ECONOMIES NEAR COLLAPSE - w/ Economist David Rosenberg @EconguyRosie

[David Resaubreg @kim43477]

Check out this mint page https://t.co/Nk7HMmKjkT via @Truffle_HQ

[David Resaubreg @kim43477]

@Lola80014283 @echodatruth I’m here to follow you