Because so many of the loan costs are fixed amounts (most title fees, non-points lender fees, etc) the higher the loan amount the less of a decrease you need for it to make sense.
For a 200,000 loan amount, a full percent minimum likely makes the most sense unless you have someone willing to do the loan very cheap. Whereas a 700,000 loan amount, even a decrease of .25% might make sense (though it would likely make sense to try and hold out for a larger decrease).
If he had, say, 1/3 of the cash on hand needed to exercise his ITM options, couldn’t he start to exercise and sell the remainder into the buying pressure from dealer?
You know way more about this than me, but DFV has clearly made some money on the markets, he may have an ace up his sleeve without just praying the meme crew pumps it.
@dampedspring Great story, thanks for sharing and what an interesting trade. I’m not familiar with the vehicle used or how it would’ve been managed - would the trade have still paid if vol had fallen during the 10 years but had a major surge as it was nearing expiration?
@LyfeOfPELK How about on Wednesday when he correctly called a red day when the market was up over 1% with only about an hour left in the trading day?
The man clearly knows what he's doing.
@JackFarley96 Danielle and Andy on back to back days? If you interview Bob Elliott tomorrow you basically just covered my daily must-reads in 3 days. Keep up the great work!
@dampedspring @JBakerAvl It’s a reference to Rob Smith’s “the strat” but you had already made this call by the time the signal hit for strat traders. Obviously it was not this 😂
Real Estate and Mortgage folks PSA: if someone you look up to or follow is making a big deal about HUD, Fannie, or Freddie ‘announcing’ their stance on realtor commissions not being counted towards interested party contributions, they are not an expert in mortgage guidelines. None of those announcements have changed anything beyond their current stance.
I have seen realtors and loan officers alike posting like this is groundbreaking news.
If someone is posting these like they are huge announcements, they may provide great value elsewhere, but don’t listen to their takes on guidelines… any guideline expert already knew these were the set rules from HUD and the GSEs for the same reason transfer taxes, owners title policies, etc are not counted towards the limits in most areas. Any item that is customarily paid by the seller in that market does not need to be counted towards that limit.
Could things change if the market gets super hot and suddenly it becomes the norm for buyers to pay their own agent’s commission? Absolutely.
Does anything that HUD or the GSEs have said change that? Absolutely not.
@unusual_whales I don’t believe that’s what caused the sell off. Why would oil and long term bonds get a huge bid off that? It explains 1 piece of the move but if the market actually cared that much about his statement, bonds would’ve sold off not got bought.
@dampedspring What is the purpose of the JOM collar, why do no other banks/financial institutions have a similar public-ish trade, and how has the trades performance been over the years?
@AdvisorJohn Seeing the exact same thing. Seems like any issue pops up with the property/inspection and buyers run. Several end up coming back with similar priced properties so I don’t think it’s all sticker shock but it is likely a factor.