If you want to be optimistic, stop looking at the world as a zero-sum game. Innovation grows the pie for everyone. The New World, the Industrial Revolution and the internet made everyone richer. Might make some richer faster, but the whole pie gets bigger.
Space is next. #spcx
Ideologies are top-down, living a virtuous rational life is bottom-up. Ideologies are authoritarian even if they seem virtuous. Virtue is collective in its effects, even if no central plan is required.
Biggest driver won’t be mass firings, it’ll be AI-native companies replacing legacy human-heavy ones.
Cost of intelligence and cost of labor will tend to zero.
S&P 500: Headcount grew ~1.5% per year on average while delivering ~15% annualized returns.
2025 shift: First annual decline in a decade -1.4%.
My bet: Headcount now declines & accelerates to ~6% avg/year over the next 10 years… while returns hold or exceed prior levels.
Merz’s firewall is going to backfire. A common-sense negotiated shift toward AfD positions would be better for Germany and EU than the full isolationist Dexit they’ll push when they win next election. Ignoring voters ain’t protecting democracy, it’ll just lead to a worse mess.
@TMTLongShort You’re not getting it. Sanchez is a puppet for the eu right now. They hate him in Spain so he does whatever the eu says. Spain is a guinea pig for testing new ground a seeing where the limit is. At the end of his term a spot will be waiting for him in the eu.
But when I saw Thierry Breton trying to censor the Musk-Trump conversation using the DSA, I realized: in this case, the EU is actually the jungle of the inconceivable. 2/2
As a European, I remind myself of the jungle the US can be before taking American criticism seriously. The oxycodone epidemic didn’t become a pandemic here thanks to strong European institutions. Watch “Dopesick” (Michael Keaton) to get it. 1/2
Dear Americans,
Europe imported California’s woke virus while kneeling to our Green gods.
No Trump here, just 27 countries that all got infected.
We’re burning the fever out. Hold the line.
Blood > ideology.
— Europe
@EndWokeness@libsoftiktok#WokeMindVirus#MEGA
With Climate Doomerism fading, AI Doomerism will become as the central organizing catastrophe on the Left. It justifies their takeover of the economy and especially the information space. And it has enough pseudoscience and Hollywood storytelling behind it to seem compelling.
Bold prediction: Microsoft will start using dedicated fossil fuel energy generation for their AI centers in the next 1 to 2 years “(which I fully offset with legitimate carbon credits)”. You have to start preparing the new narrative.
People are praising Portugal’s recent burka ban. In the politically correct continent of Europe, few countries have had this audacity. How come Portugal did? 🧵👇
It took 2 early elections, sparked by corruption and scandals, to get Portugal here. A place where we can actually do something about the radical influx in immigration.