Finally, Finally. 22 years wait. A family later with a wife and two boys. Am older by 22 years. What a journey. Thank you @Arsenal for this. Champions 25/26 North London forever
Kenya Fiscal Update for November 2025.
Revenue side:
· Tax revenue collected: Kes 173.49 billion, up 8.22% y/y
· Non-tax revenue collected: Kes 8.13 billion
· Domestic borrowing: Kes 108.82 billion
· External Loans & Grants: Kes 5.63 billion
· Other domestic financing: Kes 289.21 million
Expenditure side:
· Recurrent spending: Kes 109.12 billion
· Development spending: 24.31 billion
· Equitable Share allocation: Kes 35.54 billion
· Public debt service: Kes 159.92 billion
· Non-public debt CFS spending: Kes 6.39 billion
Kenya's Draft 2026 Budget Policy Statement is out!
There are some notable changes in the proposed 2026/27 fiscal framework.
Key take outs:
· Total expenditure for the year is being marginally tightened, a Kes 7.9 billion reduction (0.17% cut) from what we last saw two months ago from the National Treasury. 2026/27 expenditure is now printed at Kes 4,641.9 billion (22.0% of GDP)
· Total revenue for the year has been revised downward by Kes 96.4 billion (2.69% cut) from what we last saw two months ago from the National Treasury. 2026/27 revenue is now printed at Kes 3,487.0 billion (16.7% of GDP)
· Fiscal deficit for 2026/27 is widening. Two months ago the deficit was printed at Kes 1,017.6 billion (4.9% of GDP), it is now pegged at Kes 1,106.1 billion (5.3 percent of GDP), an increase of Kes 88.5 billion. We are moving away from the envisioned <4.0% of fiscal deficit-to-GDP
· 2026/27 borrowing plan is being recalibrated significantly. Two important things to observe here:
1. The government will now go heavier in the domestic market than it planned to just two months ago. 2026/27 domestic borrowing is now printed at Kes 1,006.6 billion (4.8% of GDP), an increase from the Kes 775.8 billion that had earlier been planned
2. 2026/27 external borrowing is now printed at Kes 99.5 billion (0.5% of GDP), a drastic reduction from the Kes 241.8 billion that had been printed just two months ago. It makes for a major adjustment & suggests that some of the external financing earlier lined up for 2026/27 is now off the table completely
· Another important observation is that in the first 4 months of the current financial year (2025/26), the Exchequer missed the revenue target by Kes 107.5 billion having mobilised Kes 942.0 billion. Two nuances need to be appreciated here:
1. Ordinary Revenue is clearly struggling. In those 4 months, it missed target by Kes 107.7 billion
2. AIA continues to trend within target having exceeded the target amount by a marginal Kes 169.2
million
While at it, remember to share your feedback with the National Treasury by Jan 9th, 2026.
TOUGH FINANCIAL READJUSTMENT TO PREPARE FOR BY 1st JULY 2023
It's now just a matter of weeks before all these are effected on your meager pay-slip:
1. New NHIF Rates: 2.75% of the gross monthly salary towards NHIF contributions.
2. New NSSF deductions: 6% of the gross monthly salaries towards NSSF contribution.
3. Proposed contribution to National Housing Development Fund: 3% monthly basic salary.
4. Changes in personal income tax rates: 35% in PAYE for those earning above KES 6,000,000 per year (KES 500,000 per month).
5. Increasing high cost of living: food and fuel prices will increase as businesses try to pass the effect of the increased to the consumers.
In view of the above, your net income will reduce whereas your expenses will increase.
You need to make adjustments in your finances to accommodate these additional deductions from your present payslip before July 2023.
Strategies of adjustments to cope:
1. Reduce your budget on needs- for instance moving to a cheaper house.
2. Cut back on your spending on wants- moderate on entertainment, clothing and holidays.
3. Lower your monthly repayment on loans, by stretching the repayment period - this will be costly in the long run.
4. Consolidate your loans: if you have many loans with different lenders
5. Explore other additional income sources through investments.
6. Defer or downgrade your goals to a future date.
7. Urgently Seek loan restructuring with your lenders.
8. Slightly lower your savings rate: if you are saving beyond 20%.
9. Defer any future financial plans to borrow until you stabilize.
10. Reduce other non essential obligations such as harambees, black taxes.
11. Etc. Yes reduce your carbon footprint 👣 on new babies until the economy starts to recover