kira

my trades and opinions 📈 nfa

[kira @kiracharts]

🧠 Thesis: Meme Coins Are Losing Their Touch

The meme coin era isn’t dead, it’s just too self-aware.

1️⃣ People Are Smarter Now
Most participants in this cycle aren’t clueless anymore. They’ve seen cycles. They’ve been rugged, dumped on, and they’ve learned. They understand how liquidity works, what FDV means, and what a rotation feels like. That naivety, the fuel that drove viral moments, is gone.

2️⃣ People Are Scared
They’ve seen the charts. Every coin they’ve ever loved eventually bled to zero. That trauma makes them hesitant buyers. So instead of “ape first, think later,” it’s now “wait for confirmation.” But when everyone waits for confirmation, no confirmation ever comes.

3️⃣ Everyone Thinks They’re a Trader Now
Retail doesn’t “believe” anymore; they “chart.”
They draw lines, talk about structure, and wait for breakouts that will never break out… because nobody is willing to buy the range.
It’s all the same players PVP-ing each other, reading the same charts, setting the same stops, and front-running each other’s psychology.

4️⃣ The Paradox
For things to go up, someone has to buy before it looks good. But now, everyone’s trained to buy only when it looks good. So the formation they trust is also the formation that guarantees it won’t perform. We’re in a self-defeating loop of too much knowledge, too little conviction.

5️⃣ The Meme Coin Irony
The whole meme coin meta was built on vibes > logic. Now logic has entered the chat and it’s killing the magic. People forgot: memes pump because people believe first. Without that shared delusion, all that’s left is empty liquidity and echo-chamber trading.

I hope you enjoyed my thesis… please let me know what you think below or if you have something to add!

[kira @kiracharts]

lol

[kira @kiracharts]

🤣🤣🤣🤣

[kira @kiracharts]

Saylor sold 32 Bitcoin lol

[kira @kiracharts]

Waiting for the next🩸narrative to happen

[kira @kiracharts]

Ummmm guys

[kira @kiracharts]

@csin02 Scare off the hoes

[kira @kiracharts]

Stop overcomplicating it… DCA weekly from now until Sept/Oct and go all in if you see $50,000 a bitcoin. 🎯

[kira @kiracharts]

@Alejandro_XBT Spot on 🎯

[kira @kiracharts]

Waiting for the next🩸narrative to happen

[kira @kiracharts]

Why is everyone bullish all of a sudden 🤣

[kira @kiracharts]

They always look for something or someone to blame for their losses… this time it’s Jane Street

[kira @kiracharts]

So it really was that simple
Patience pays

[kira @kiracharts]

Hmmmm 🧐

[kira @kiracharts]

🧐

[kira @kiracharts]

You are all way too bullish all of a sudden 😂

I am STILL waiting patiently.

[kira @kiracharts]

Good luck bulls… you’re gonna need it!

[kira @kiracharts]

@dyk_ceph @DeCryptoJester 🤣👍 cheers

[kira @kiracharts]

@dyk_ceph @DeCryptoJester Same here

[kira @kiracharts]

Still waiting patiently 💵

[kira @kiracharts]

Hmmmm 🧐

[Rex Zhou @rexzh0u]

You are totally wrong about Post-Quantum Bitcoin.

They tell you to be afraid. They tell you that quantum computers are the end of Bitcoin. They tell you that one day, a machine will crack the code, steal the keys, and send the price to zero.

They are lying. Or rather, they are too mid to see the board.

Quantum computing isn't the death of Bitcoin. It is the catalyst for the most violent, face-melting supply shock in human history. It is the moment we finally scrub the ledger clean.

Here is the reality they don't want to talk about.

First, let’s kill the FUD. The argument goes: "Shor’s Algorithm will crack elliptic curve cryptography (ECDSA), allowing a quantum computer to derive your private key from your public key."

Technically true. Practically irrelevant for you. The faster the quantum computing develops, the earlier we will reach the post-quantum consensus.

Most of your public keys are not on the blockchain. It is hashed. It is hidden behind SHA-256. A quantum computer is a beast at factoring large numbers, but it is useless at reversing a hash function. As long as you haven't reused an address (don't be lazy), you are invisible to the machine. You are safe. And you can move your bitcoin to post-quantum addresses sooner than you think.

But you know who isn't safe? The ghosts P2PK.

In 2009, Satoshi didn't use P2PKH. He used P2PK (Pay to Public Key). In those early blocks, the public keys were not hashed. They were pasted directly onto the blockchain. Naked. Exposed.

This includes the "Patoshi Pattern" - the estimated 1.1 million BTC mined by Satoshi himself. It includes the early miners who lost their hard drives in landfills. It includes the zombies.

There are roughly 3 to 4 million Bitcoin sitting in these vulnerable, legacy addresses. They are the "lost coins" we all talk about. Right now, we assume they are gone forever. But on Q-Day, they wake up.

Picture the scenario. Google or IBM announces a stable, fault-tolerant Quantum Computer. A thief could theoretically sweep those 1.1 million Satoshi coins and market-dump them. Do you think the network is going to sit there and let that happen? Do you think miners, nodes, BlackRock, Strategy, and the millions of plebs are going to watch their net worth evaporate because of a ghost from 2009?

Zero chance. The "Ossification" debate ends instantly. The consensus will be ruthless.

Give bip360 a read, P2QRH, it's elegantly built on top of the P2TR, with only disabling the vulnerable script path while keeping all the battle tested security and infrastructure based on P2TR.

Active users - you, me, the exchanges - will sign a transaction and move our stack to the new format. Easy. But the dead cannot sign. Satoshi cannot sign. The lost keys cannot sign.

So what happens at Block Height X? We sunset the old legacy addresses. We cut off the limb to save the body. The network stops recognizing the old P2PK signature scheme.

In that split second, the "lost" coins go from "effectively lost" to mathematically destroyed. They are burned. Deleted from the ledger. Gone.

Do the math. Total Supply: 21,000,000. Minus Satoshi’s Stash: 1,100,000. Minus Early Lost Coins: ~2,500,000.

On the day the upgrade goes live, the Max Supply of Bitcoin doesn't stay at 21M. It drops to 17M. Or 16M.

Instantaneously. Permanently.

Stop fearing the tech. Fear is for people who don't understand incentives. The incentives here are aligned for survival, and survival requires the burn.

The Quantum "Threat" is actually the final hardening of the asset. It is the fire that burns away the dead wood, leaving only the hardest, most scarce money the universe has ever seen.

"The software would be programmed to start using a new hash after a certain block number. Everyone would have to upgrade by that time. The software could save the new hash of all the old blocks to make sure a different block with the same old hash can’t be used." - Satoshi

"Lost coins only make everyone else's coins slightly more valuable. Think of it as a donation to everyone." - Satoshi

Bring on Q-Day. I want the upgrade. I want the supply shock. I want the burn.

Q-day to quadrillions.

[kira @kiracharts]

@csin02 Bear trap 🤞

[kira @kiracharts]

Hmmmm 🧐