kit Juckes

The Fool on the Hill sees the sun going down and the eyes in his head see the world spinning around

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

A propos de rien, Arteta out-Artetad by Emery, who may be on for a knighthood!

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

@robin_j_brooks Struggling with the emotion, but chacun à son goût… and in a masochistic sort of way, North London is fine today

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

The dots arrived in 2012 (I think) .. i was in my 50s… we managed before!!

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

One headline (Iran FM expected in Islamabad Friday night) and noksek goes potty…

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

It sets the debate about dollar dominance/hegemony in context - it would be healthy for alternatives to emerge, but the dollar is losing influence at the same time speed Everest is losing height - too slowly to matter!

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

This chart, from a Banque de France paper by @RVicquery (now at the Bk of England) shows just how dominant the dollar has become. Far more than the pound ever was. https://t.co/Ev6hWwiaZX

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

My work on this earth may be nearly over -- or at least my work of the last 4ys could be in its final chapter.

The FT's Big Read is on the China sock 2.0 (one of my favorite phrases) and the pink paper endorsed the concept of "shadow reserves"!

1/

[John O'Connell @jdpoc]

This might just be one of the best tweets ever.

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

@Brad_Setser 👏 in the end, the balances have to balance and whether the other banks act independently or in conjunction with the central bank, is just semantics.

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

@GitaGopinath In the balance of payments, everything is relative and a deficit requires a surplus elsewhere. So if the US has high cholesterol, Germany, Japan and China have very low cholesterol, hypocholesterolemia. symptoms include problems with growth and development….

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

Some news is … unsurprising

[NBER @nberpubs]

The observed decline in labor’s share of corporate output, in conjunction with relatively weak corporate investment, generates a persistent rise in the ratio of corporate valuation relative to corporate earnings, from Andrew Atkeson, @Jonheathcote, and @fab_perri https://t.co/cNQee1CpqR

[Mike Bird @Birdyword]

Worth emphasising in the midst of a lot of chat about the dollar that the USD is still strong, indeed very strong in real terms relative to most of its modern history. (You could say that means it's got a long way to fall ofc)

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

@biancoresearch What’s “needed” got to do with it? What’s “needed” but a second-hand emotion?

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

2026… BBGTV runs a headline that tells me “Crocs bets $150 clogs shaped like Lego bricks will generate buzz” these are days, endless days of surprises - some scary, some just bonkers!

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

@adam_tooze We made TVs so cheap that demand went through the roof and we spend hours watching them while we eat and drink ourselves into (very expensive) hospitals?

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

Brad is on fire. A look at the collapse in purchases of US assets yesterday (which sits uncomfortably with a raging current a/c surplus) and here’s how the latter is solved.

[Brad Setser @Brad_Setser]

It has been a while since anyone posted a jaw dropping intervention number.

China's December intervention was done through the backdoor (the state banks) but it was massive -- $100b in spot purchases, $120b in spot and in new (net) forwards ...

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

@Brad_Setser This is brilliant

[Gita Gopinath @GitaGopinath]

Why Haven’t Trump’s Tariffs Had a Bigger Impact? @AnaSwanson writes about our paper in @nytimes . Actual tariffs are much lower than what were announced. That said, "the researchers demonstrated that Americans were bearing the cost of Mr. Trump’s tariffs, in contrast to what he and his advisers have claimed."
@NYT article: https://t.co/seNvQWF8Pw
The paper with @BrentNeiman is here: https://t.co/pCbNHdAdM3

[kit Juckes @kitjuckes]

@gilliantett’s piece in the FT this morning is excellent but chilling. We are witnessing “a geoeconomic contest between the US, China and Russia in which economic policy tools are being used for political ends’. Europe, meanwhile, watches on, thumbs twiddling.