Kitther

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[DiscusFish @bitfish]

提示词：Your advice for next 10 years. No explanations.

[熹米周期轮动 @ximihoo1]

年轻时候的巴菲特

潇洒的人生，用自己喜欢的方式过完这一生，没有辜负任何一个信任自己的��！

年轻的时候轻狂、桀骜不驯不是错🤠

[Kitther @kitther]

@HiFrey 好像只能买不能订阅，优惠码过期之后就不便宜了。而且没有长期的新加坡IP套餐。

[Dyna Robotics @DynaRobotics]

We are releasing Dyna-2.1, the first Physical Agent that achieves reliable super long-horizon whole-body autonomy. It combines our brand-new semi-humanoid hardware with an agentic system built around Dyna-2 to handle ultra-long real-world workflows.

Here is an uncut footage of Dyna-2.1 completing an entire hour-long laundry room workflow, just like a human does.

[Kitther @kitther]

@DeepSeekHarness Any plan for mobile version?

[Kitther @kitther]

@robbietilton May you have interest to build a lightroom?

[168X @168X_Fortune]

6 月疯抢半导体，8 月底却没人要

投资 TALK 君（@TJ_Research）重回 168X：NVIDIA 仍被低估，CSP 正拿回定价权，Agent 爆发只差 token 再降价

买在无人问津，卖在人声鼎沸 https://t.co/2cf5UXYBph

[Kitther @kitther]

@TJ_Research 很喜欢你的风格，比其他的更喜欢

[投资TALK君 @TJ_Research]

投资不是看谁对于现状的描述更准确，而是基于对现状的理解做未来的推测。
太多人犯的错误是把精力注重在对于现状描述上做到精确，然后默认线性外推。
22年Meta，Meta受到苹果限制，收集个人数据，垃圾公司，不值得投资
22年芯片，周期行业
24年AMD，有老大英伟达不投干嘛买老二
26年MSFT，软件完蛋了
26年UNH，川普在位没必要投医疗

[Kitther @kitther]

@TJ_Research 请问🍑君，目前看黄金和加密会是长线机会吗？

[Kitther @kitther]

@KKaWSB 这样伟大的人的采访视频的评论区下面竟��是这样，感慨人类的文明到底走向了何方。

[Kitther @kitther]

@TJ_Research $PLTR 今天涨了30％，可以分享一下对它的看法吗？

[Citrini @citrini]

Since CPI is either going to be a clearing event or a thanos snap event, I figured it might be a decent time to be helpful.

If you’re relatively new to investing, then you’re bound to learn about what happens when your portfolio goes down.

Now, this is coming from someone who’s portfolio is up a paltry 20% YTD and hasn’t been gunning it on risk recently. Although also someone who’s been trading and investing their own money for the better part of a decade and has managed to not go bust (except for one, very painful time early on).

If you’re constructing a portfolio it’s important to realize it is its own position rather than a collection of positions. A stock is not just a company but the sum of its valuation, shareholder base, its sensitivity to liquidity, crowding, financing/rates and its catalyst calendar. High beta stocks are often five different trades in one ticker.

You should always have a working idea of your “tilts”. Does your portfolio go up/down more if tech rallies, if certain countries outperform, if a specific thematic is validated etc etc.

In general, you should not have a portfolio of 20 different stocks that all act the same. You might think you won’t, but getting the value of your book cut in half will make you do stupid things. (As an aside, this is also why even though buying the dip is generally a good strategy, progressively buying the dip early into a drawdown can make you mess up at the exact lows.)

High beta stocks come in all shapes and colors but in general they are selling the distant future. In good markets, the time out to that future is cheap. In bad markets, you start paying rent. That rent tends to appear as a lower multiple even while estimates stay the same.

A lot of times people will tell you the only thing that matters in a drawdown is “is the thesis intact?”. That’s one aspect, the other two are “how have expectations changed?” and “did you size like an idiot?”.

Don’t average down just to improve your cost basis, the market doesn’t care about your cost basis. Only add if you can truly underwrite the expected return improving, and that means taking a view that goes beyond a default return to multiples that may be unsustainable.

Price can become a fundamental and technical sell offs can manufacture fundamental problems - reflexivity cuts both ways.

The best question you can ask yourself in a drawdown is “from here, what is the range of outcomes and what��s the best use of the next dollar?”. If early in a drawdown you note that every time one sector goes up your portfolio goes down, it could be a decent idea to add exposure to that sector.

The ultimate goal is not to avoid every drawdown but to make sure no single drawdown takes away your ability to act on real opportunities when they arise.

No amount of truisms will help make anyone a better investor, but there is something you can do right now. If this is one of your first few drawdowns, you can observe how you react. Take notes on it. Find out what mistakes you make and then optimize your portfolio, sizing, strategy etc to compensate for those shortcomings. It’s a lot easier to do that than try to fight your own psychology - and anyone who pretends there’s a one size fits all answer to that is lying.

[Kitther @kitther]

@SVScholar 会进入SMH吗？

[Robinson · 鲁棒逊 @python_xxt]

这个女孩分享自己打工收入的视频，那个感觉，让我想起了曾经的

假美食po主 浪浪

都是原生家庭条件优渥，家庭氛围幸福温暖，养育的很好的孩子

真好

[Kitther @kitther]

@HaterReport The Brazilians won those cups would not behave like this.

[Kitther @kitther]

@yangyi 美国湾区$4M财富自由，中国还更贵了？

[投资TALK君 @TJ_Research]

聊聊投资个股时间成本的问题。
定义：买了3年了，股价小涨或者原地踏步，而市场走得非常好，错过了。
悖论：时间成本是一个后视镜，买入时我们不知道会是这个结果。
尽量回避时间成本风险的角度：为什么说尽量？因为这个风险不可能完全规避。
1. 买入时清晰地知道基本面，包括现状，未来的发展方向，起飞的契机，最后估值
2. 隔一段时间，通常2个季度财报后，价格不涨，担心有时间成本风险，重新审视第一步。但这一部其实在每个季度看财报时就可以做了
3. 知道什么时候退出，标准是什么。通常卖出的原��：太贵，基本面改变，有更好的替代品
4. 仓位配比控制风险，重指数，轻个股
最后举两个例子：迪��尼和特斯拉
前者基本面EPS一直在改善，流媒体扭亏为盈，明确利润率抬升路径，但市场一直在压缩估值
后者4年半前到现在几乎没有涨幅，但估值却从1000多倍到了350倍，传统定义里仍然非常非常贵，但这时候就需要考虑个股特殊性：马斯克溢价。另外市场在定价什么？Robotaxi和未来机器人的超远期期权。
总结，投资个股的乐趣说白了就是你比其他人更早的进场，看到了未来。但我们都会看错，很多东西是无法量化，有AI的帮助也没用，因为价格是人参与的结果，有人的地方就有很多不可预测性了。如果投资前有担心时间成本，那说明基本面不够好。

[Kitther @kitther]

@TJ_Research @wa3797077533112 可以讲解一下平衡的仓位吗？🙏