Kevin Herrmann

[AgAu Element @AgAuElements]

Everyone's skimming the headlines about Rakuten forming a joint venture with $ASTS to build out a low Earth orbit (LEO) satellite network for Japan.

The retail crowd sees it exactly how the media packages it: a strategic response to the growing influence of $SPCX (Starlink) in Japan.

I want to show you the structural dynamic driving this, using a playbook the defense and energy sectors already ran: The Sovereign Infrastructure Mandate.The stock has had a massive run, and the lazy bears are screaming that the LEO race in Japan is already over.

They point out that KDDI, SoftBank, and NTT Docomo already have live direct-to-cell partnerships with SpaceX’s Starlink. The surface-level argument is that $ASTS is just a small disruptor trying to fight a monopoly that has already won the market. It’s a complete misread.

Here is what is actually happening behind the scenes.When a nation realizes its most critical infrastructure, in this case, emergency telecom and disaster connectivity, is completely controlled by a foreign entity, the government's calculus changes from "who is the cheapest provider?" to "who do we actually control?"Japan is an archipelago highly vulnerable to natural disasters.

Relying entirely on Elon Musk and SpaceX for emergency network survivability represents an unacceptable national data sovereignty risk for the Japanese government. Enter the J-LEO Initiative. Japan’s Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications (MIC) is allocating roughly $1 billion in state subsidies to build a domestically controlled Direct-to-Device (D2D) network.

Then comes the structural twist nobody is fully pricing into the $ASTS model. This Rakuten joint venture isn’t just a generic telecom partnership. Look at the specific leverage:Japanese Capital Control: Rakuten and $ASTS will hold equal stakes, but Rakuten will explicitly lead the management to ensure the entity is backed by Japanese capital.Spectrum Monopoly: A government subcommittee just recommended the use of the 700 MHz band for satellite D2D, a critical frequency that ONLY Rakuten holds among Japan's major mobile operators.Aggressive Timelines: They are targeting initial limited rollouts by late 2026, with full nationwide coverage locked in by fiscal 2027.

Sit with that. $ASTS isn't just trying to out-market Starlink to average consumers. They are embedding their orbital hardware directly into a sovereign defense and infrastructure mandate.The "Starlink is already entrenched" thesis only matters if the buyer prioritizes commercial convenience over national security. But when the buyer is the Japanese government funding a domestic telecom mandate, the integrated local JV wins.

Rakuten CEO Hiroshi Mikitani explicitly confirmed this, stating it is "extremely critical" to launch a service backed by Japanese capital rather than foreign assets.

How I'm trading it:These "David vs. Goliath" headlines pitting ASTS against Starlink are a setup to create artificial doubt around execution. That is the wrong lens. This is a state-sponsored infrastructure play.Any deep flush in $ASTS based on fears of Starlink's commercial dominance, I will keep dip buying on. The one fact that actually matters, that global governments will eagerly fund their own sovereign LEO networks to break the Starlink monopoly, and ASTS is handing them the keys to do it, hasn't moved an inch.

Space telecom is about to hand a harsh lesson to everyone who thinks having the most satellites in orbit is the only moat that matters.

NFA. DYOR. Any pushback is welcome, as I might be wrong.

[Kevin Herrmann @kjherrmann]

@wfaaweather I believe some additional adjustments need to be made. For example, Cedar Creek Lake isn't .5' over full conservation level. It currently sits 3.6' low. https://t.co/UeP2gnOvOu

[Kevin Herrmann @kjherrmann]

@wfaaweather Are you sure these figures are correct? Cedar Creek Lake is about 3 1/2' low currently.

[Kevin Herrmann @kjherrmann]

@BlackScholesMan I couldn't agree more.

[Kevin Herrmann @kjherrmann]

@CameronMayCS B. Continue to drop

[Kevin Herrmann @kjherrmann]

@junior_miller Good ol' Memphis.

[Kevin Herrmann @kjherrmann]

@ASTS_Investors $157.57

[ASTS Investors 🅰️ @ASTS_Investors]

🧇GUESS THE AST SPACEMOBILE SHARE PRICE AT THE END OF 2026 🧇

It’s competition time, Sp🅰️ceMob!

Want to win a Block 2 BlueBird model?

2026 is shaping up to be a huge year for the space industry and AST SpaceMobile is right at the centre of it.

To enter you just need to do two things

1️⃣ Reply to this post with your end of 2026 share price prediction

2️⃣ RT this post

⏰ Entries close: 11:59pm EST, 31 December 2025

Closest guess wins, good luck!

[Shay Boloor @StockSavvyShay]

MY 2026 PREDICTIONS

1. Amazon goes from Mag-7 laggard to leader as AWS reaccelerates.
Compute bottlenecks fade, Trainium gains real adoption & AWS growth moves back toward the mid-twenties, while Ads continues its steady climb & becomes a second profit engine that structurally lifts $AMZN margins.

2. Space industry becomes a mainstream investment theme.
A $1.5T SpaceX IPO forces public markets to rethink what the space economy is actually worth. That shift accelerates as Sam Altman explores a direct SpaceX competitor & as Sundar Pichai, Jeff Bezos & Elon Musk openly discuss orbital compute which creates a rare moment where politics, capital & technology align. $RKLB & $ASTS are my highest-conviction ways to express that re-rating.

3. Emerging markets outperform the S&P 500.
A weaker dollar, lower rates and an explosion of digital products built from AI tools give EM a structural tailwind, with Latin America positioned to benefit the most. $MELI remains my highest-conviction expression of this theme.

4. Model costs collapse again & push value to whoever controls distribution.
As inference becomes cheaper & model performance converges then the models themselves stop being the profit center & the power shifts to platforms that own consumer engagement. $META, $GOOGL & $AAPL outperform because distribution becomes the moat since they control the surfaces where billions interact with AI every day.

5. Productivity boom finally shows up in the data.
The Fed’s GDP upgrades for 2026–2027 become visible as AI replaces manual workflows, raises output per worker & compresses cost structures across the economy. The gap between companies that embraced AI early & those that delayed adoption widens meaningfully in earnings.

[Kevin Herrmann @kjherrmann]

@RealJamesWoods Unfortunately James, absolutely nothing. Only hot air coming from the Republicans on this matter, no action at all.

[Catturd ™ @catturd2]

The Seditious Six Shooter.

[JB and family @SimmonsBart]

When you are pre-revenue…..you manage your costs judiciously. Cash flow is everything. This is a massive signal…..no one does this unless there are guaranteed booked orders, iron clad commitments…with soon to be revenue generation via scaling. The technology is proven.

[JB and family @SimmonsBart]

“It’s really AI and Space as the two big opportunities for humanity as we step forward.”

[Kevin Herrmann @kjherrmann]

@JimFergusonUK The answer is NOTHING will happen. They all get off scot-free because the current administration doesn't have the balls to follow through with any true prosecutions.

[James Woods @RealJamesWoods]

Terrify a liberal today…

[Kevin Herrmann @kjherrmann]

@Sarge986 Nice work Sarge...keep it up.

[Kevin Herrmann @kjherrmann]

@WerderEdNFL Soon to be 7-0.

[Elon Musk @elonmusk]

Legacy news like AP is super racist against Whites (and Asians).

Either capitalize all races or none. That would be fair and equal treatment, but only lowercase for Whites is racist by definition!

[JB and family @SimmonsBart]

The heartfelt note from a customer of The Provision House is a powerful testament to the impact of our work at the 2S. They express deep gratitude for the quality service and food we provide, noting a significant improvement in their health since ordering from us, far surpassing what they found at the grocery store. This validation underscores our mission that health is wealth, making every effort worthwhile as we continue to offer accessible and convenient nutritious options to all Americans.
Family owned and operated. We ship nationally.

[Kevin Herrmann @kjherrmann]

@CameronMayCS B.