Francis Kaijuka

Building institutional-grade trading tools for retail. Breaking down COT/CFTC data weekly in Breaking Structure. Founder @AlstrumAI”

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

https://t.co/TVgwjKFysQ

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Chinese equity gamma just hit its 100th percentile. A record.

SpotGamma's daily dealer flow report dropped this morning. KWEB sitting at $12.6M of gamma exposure. Small dollar number. But for KWEB, never been higher. The whole Chinese Equity ETF sector lit up at 99th percentile gamma and 88th percentile delta, while bonds and equities sit deep negative.

Smart money is hedging long China while the rest of the book stays defensive. That is a divergence worth reading carefully.

The Breaking Structure thesis this week called it Accumulation. Post-FOMC, institutions did not flush the positioning pools. They hedged across every futures node. The KWEB print is one piece of that puzzle. The other pieces showed up exactly where Edition 17 mapped them: TLT dealer gamma at the 3rd percentile, bond vega at the 26th, the short-gamma extreme that turns a capitulation into a reversal if the catalyst hits.

April CPI prints Wednesday at 8:30 AM ET. That is the catalyst.

Every Sunday I publish the Relay across bonds, currencies, commodities, equities, and crypto. Plus the Smart Money Tape: five Tier-1 names from cluster insider buys, congressional disclosures, and options flow. Plus one Off the Books investigative piece.

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Paid Breaking Structure launches Sun May 18.

$35/mo or $280/yr.
Founding member: $25/mo or $200/yr — first 50 subscribers, locked at sign-up forever.

What's in paid:
→ Daily plays-to-watch with key levels
→ COT correlations across nodes
→ OI/GEX read once Relay GEX ships May 14

Free Sunday newsletter stays free. Always.

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Plus what's new this week:

→ Plays-to-watch section with key levels + invalidation criteria
→ Paid tier preview (launches next Sun May 18, founding rate × 50)

Free Sunday stays free. Always.

Read Edition 17 ↓
https://t.co/D8qCOgFH5c

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Edition 17 just shipped.

[Edition 17 hook headline — fill Sun]

The three pools after the May 8 COT. CPI setup. NVDA framework. Warsh's first FOMC preview.

Walk-through:

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

[Top finding from Edition 17 — fill Sun]

[Supporting data — fill Sun]

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Edition 17 in 2 hours.

What's in it:
→ Post-COT verdict (which template fired Friday)
→ April CPI setup (Tuesday)
→ NVDA framework (May 20)
→ Warsh FOMC #1 preview (Jun 16-17)
→ New: plays-to-watch with key levels

Paid tier launches next Sunday May 18. First 50 lock founding rate.

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Edition 17 ships tomorrow 7pm ET.

In it:
→ May 8 COT verdict
→ Setup into CPI Tue May 12
→ NVDA May 20 framework
→ Warsh's first FOMC (Jun 16-17) preview
→ NEW — plays-to-watch with key levels & invalidation criteria

Plays-to-watch is the paid tier preview. Launches Sun May 18.

Free Sunday newsletter stays free. Always.

https://t.co/eafTSJBGkt

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

April CPI Tuesday May 12.

Hot → easing bias walked back → distribution thesis triggers → S&P toward 6,800-7,000 risk.
Cool → easing bias confirmed → biggest squeeze of 2026 sets up into NVDA May 20.

The −96K equity spec short and the −417K bonds spec short both wait on this print.

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

The market stopped paying for AI as a label. It started paying for AI as a position in the supply chain.

The three-layer Mag 7 split that drove last week's tape, in 20 seconds. ↓

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Public scorecard every Saturday.

If a call missed, I say so before I make the next one. That's the only way positioning analysis stays honest.

Edition 17 ships tomorrow 7pm ET.
Post-COT pool sweep verdict + setup into CPI + paid tier reveal.

https://t.co/D8qCOgFH5c

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Edition 16 scorecard — public.

Three pools called Sun. May 8 COT was the first post-FOMC read.

What hit:
→ [bonds outcome — fill Fri eve]
→ [equities outcome — fill Fri eve]
→ [crypto outcome — fill Fri eve]

What missed:
→ [if anything — fill Fri eve]

Why it matters into CPI Tuesday:

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Pattern across 16 editions: the obvious catalysts rarely sweep the obvious pools.

Earnings tried last week. FOMC tried Apr 29. Both failed.

The macro that does sweep is usually the one nobody's pricing.

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Today's COT was the first read on what real money did with Powell's signal.

Tomorrow morning: public scorecard.
Sunday 7pm ET: Edition 17 with the verdict + setup into CPI Tuesday + Warsh's June FOMC.

Plus paid tier launch reveal.

https://t.co/D8qCOgFH5c

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Pre-COT scroll-stop.

Mag 7 cleared. S&P printed a record. Specs added shorts into it.

Today 3:30pm ET tells you whether they were right early or just wrong.

https://t.co/D8qCOgFH5c

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

First post-Powell COT drops at 3:30pm ET.

Three positioning paths loaded:
→ Specs CAPITULATE (cover off the −417K bonds extreme)
→ Specs PRESS (5th week at the 0th pctl)
→ AM SHIFTS (real money unwinds the +98K 10Y belly)

Live read at 3:45.
Full verdict in Sunday's edition.

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Tomorrow 3:30pm ET. CFTC drops the most consequential positioning print of the month.

Reactive thread + live read at 3:45.
Three template paths queued.

If you pull TFF reports, watch the bonds row first. Five weeks at the 0th percentile is unprecedented.

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Tomorrow's first post-Powell COT prints at 3:30pm ET.

Which fires?

→ Specs CAPITULATE (cover off −417K bonds)
→ Specs PRESS (5th week at 0th pctl)
→ AM SHIFTS (real money unwinds)

Reply with your read — I'll score them Saturday alongside the actual print.

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

3:30pm tomorrow.
Live read at 3:45 with which template fired.

Full framework + plays-to-watch in Sunday's edition.

https://t.co/D8qCOgFH5c

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

The May 8 COT drops tomorrow at 3:30pm ET.

It's the first positioning read since FOMC. 60-second framework to read it the moment it lands:

[Francis Kaijuka @kjukas]

Equities.

Specs at −96K, 90th pctl. AM holds ~1M E-mini long.

→ Cover → biggest squeeze of 2026 sets up into NVDA May 20
→ Press → distribution thesis triggers, S&P toward 6,800-7,000 risk
→ AM unwind → specs were right early, cover before NVDA