We’re back with Market Monday #155!
We’ll be getting caught up with the crypto market, CT, and discussing our greedy and fearful goals and projections for 2026.
https://t.co/C9PYpeL5mC
Contributed to @Thoughtworks on building the right systems to serve clients across multiple rails. $25T in volume.
Real paths forward. https://t.co/gSB1Sd005J
Read this. The Minnesota state prison system suggests Gregory Bovino outright lied about the target of the operation during which agents shot and killed Alex Pretti.
Strategy bought an eye-watering $3.38B of BTC over the past two weeks ($1.25B + $2.13B). Plenty of takes on these moves, but I want to provide some color on what they're doing to the capital structure, which I find to be especially notable.
Firstly, STRC is obviously having its moment in the sun. $119M two weeks ago, $294M this past week—all while STRC stays pinned within 1% of face value.
This $STRC issuance has been in tandem with a large amount of $MSTR ATM . What does this mean, and is this accretive for shareholders?
Most MSTR was sold between 1.0x-1.10x mNAV. This is accretive in net asset terms, however with market cap below the value of BTC holdings, in isolation, it would be negative to BTC/share. However, Saylor is intelligently pairing the MSTR ATM with the STRC ATM. STRC was ~14% the size of MSTR issuance over this period. In BTC per fully-diluted share terms, despite selling of common with BTC below market cap value (while indeed above 1.0x in enterprise value terms), BTC per fully diluted common shares increased over the past two weeks —up 0.4% on the year. So, indeed accretive, but in my view, the bigger story is the focus on deleveraging the convertible bonds to focus on attaining "amplification" through prefs instead.
If we assume constant 92K BTC for consistency, from the start of the year to today:
Converts (less USD) as % of BTC: 9.67% → 9.18%
Prefs (less USD) as % of BTC: 9.19% → 9.36%
Strategy has flipped its outstanding convertible debt with notional prefs, which of course never come due in principal. In just one year.
Why is this being done? Strategy's team has made clear they see the perpetual pref (dubbed "digital credit") as the big idea. The fact that prefs can IPO, with ATMs attached, with no maturity cliff speaks for itself.
But I believe there's an additional motivation potentially: minimizing the gamma effect convertible debt has on the credit spreads of the prefs.
If you correctly view the convertible bonds as debt + an equity call option, at $400 MSTR the weighted delta on the converts was approximately 73%. The market effectively viewed Strategy as having ~$2.18B of effective debt with ~$6.06B that would become equity. This is rough back-of-napkin math, but you can use Black-Scholes to input the convertible bond strikes and first put dates, you can approximate a delta for each bond. In aggregate, you get a weighted average delta.
So yes, while technically $8.2B of debt has been outstanding for almost a year, the market doesn't
treat this as 100% debt—it probabilistically moves with MSTR stock price.
When BTC fell sharply in November and MSTR (as well as all other BTC proxies) followed, the stock price falling essentially partially 'de-equitized' the converts. A move from $400 to $150 is sort of like ~$2.5B more debt becoming senior to the prefs. The delta of the converts—their sensitivity to MSTR price—changed. This change in delta is called gamma.
The point here is that it wasn't necessarily just BTC NAV itself contracting that changed the profile of the prefs in the eyes of some credit investors. It was BTC price moving MSTR price, which impacted the likelihood of conversion of the converts, which impacted the assumed senior liabilities above the prefs.
With the massive purchases in recent weeks, it's clear that Strategy is diligently deleveraging the converts off the balance sheet (relatively), which means the convert gamma will have minimal—and eventually no impact on pref credit spreads.
Having no convertible bonds senior to the prefs should not only improve absolute credit spreads but should diminish credit spread volatility, as the volatility of the size of the assumed senior liabilities above the prefs goes away entirely. This should make prefs like STRC even less volatile, reinforcing the strength and efficiency of the system further.
So to answer the question: yes, this mix of STRC and MSTR issuance is accretive in BTC Yield terms, but I think the bigger story here is the deleveraging of the balance sheet (relatively) of convertible bonds, and it's shifting the focus to pref-style "amplification"—exactly as the MSTR team has stated.
The USD reserve is another recent shift worth noting. It looks to have further dampened credit spread volatility in the prefs by quieting market concerns around dividend coverage and immediate capital raising needs.
Congrats to the Strategy team on having notional prefs surpass converts in just one year.
Wildly impressive.
🔷$CMC20 ( @CoinMarketCap ) is listing on Aster
The first spot index on Aster is here 👇
https://t.co/yPYPNjbkw2
📋 The Basics
- Spot listing: CMC20/USDT | Jan 26, 12:00 UTC
- Trading campaign: Jan 26, 12:00 UTC – Feb 25, 14:00 UTC
- Rewards pool: $50,000 in $ASTER
- Symbol boost: 1.2x on CMC20/USDT Spot during the campaign period
🎯 How Rewards Work
- Rewards are based on CMC20/USDT Spot trading fees during the campaign.
- Boost multiplier: Hold ≥0.5 CMC20 for a full continuous hour → +0.1 boost per qualifying hour (accumulates over time).
- 3% per-user cap. Wash trading & Sybil farming get filtered.
- Only rewards ≥1 $ASTER with total trading fees >$5 will be distributed.
✅ Reward Formula
Individual Reward = Total Pool × (Your Fees × Boost) ÷ Σ(All Fees × Boost)
🔍 What is CoinMarketCap 20 Index ( $CMC20 )?
$CMC20 measures the performance of the top 20 cryptocurrencies by market cap (excluding stablecoins & pegged tokens).
Details: https://t.co/axkvpy7ehU
From Wall Street's biggest banks to crypto's most influential builders, Consensus is where institutional capital meets on-chain innovation.
The roster for Miami is stacking up, and it reads like a who's who of digital assets—save the date & secure your pass to join them 😎
12 year old Roman McKonn is a caring young man who has been finding new homes for over 4,800 shelter dogs since he was four years old. https://t.co/NfG1SoCmpO
Lower the # of decisions you make in Crypto
I do this through automation and formulas.
• I buy BTC /w fiat on the 1st of each month. I don't waste brainpower trying to time the market.
• I vibe-coded a simple dashboard with everything I need to check daily, in one place.
Decision-making is like a muscle. The more you USE it throughout the day, the weaker it gets.
Yield-farming works the same way.
Constant checking, comparing, and second-guessing when conditions shift.
That’s why Lazy Summer from @summerfinance_ clicks for me.
You deposit once, and the vault handles rotations and risk caps in the background as markets change.
$SUMR just went live via Aerodrome.
A clean launch where liquidity and price are discovered openly.
What’s the idea behind $SUMR? The vaults earn fees, those fees go to the treasury, and SUMR stakers can earn real USDC yield from it, plus extra SUMR rewards.
Here’s how to get exposure:
• Stake SUMR
• Lock it for a higher multiplier (up to ~7x)
• LP SUMR/USDC on Aerodrome if you want the higher rewards (and you’re fine taking impermanent loss risk)
The product comes first. The token just sits on top of it.
Glad to partner with https://t.co/yOPsSMN3V5 and highlight $SUMR as they ship this next phase.
Seeing some misinformed takes that Farcaster is shutting down
no, it's not
- the protocol is and remains sufficiently decentralized
- @neynarxyz will now operate Farcaster client and Clanker, in addition to the existing developer platform
building products will get easier from here
Teachers know real-world context matters.
These real-world money videos support meaningful conversations by grounding financial literacy in situations students actually face.
Available at the start of each unit, labeled “Real World,” in the Financial Literacy course: https://t.co/dgMOuk11GK
Made possible by Intuit for Education.