Insane how the SPX / M2 pattern continues to match up, even all this time later.
Probably will break at some point, but might as well follow it until it does.
Here's a chart that I shared with premium members of Cubic Analytics in September, showing the history of breakdowns & what we should expect if/when it occurs.
Well... we're here.
And sorry, the average drawdown is -58.5% after the signal flashes (closing below the 2-day 200).
@Vivek4real_ Germany sold 49,858 BTC in June-July 2024 for ~$2.89 billion ($57,900/BTC). Holding until October 3, 2025, at $120,000/BTC, it would be worth ~$5.24 billion, a loss of ~$2.35 billion.
NGMI
Longs were delevered (per our magic blue dot) on the recent CRASH to $111K. That’s just the sixth long delevering event in the last year, and at 18%, was larger than anything that occurred during the tariff tantrum. $BTC
This outline still follows...
ETH/BTC has bottomed ✅
ALT/ETH will bleed ✅
ALT/BTC is going up but lagging ETH/BTC ✅
ALT/BTC tops late August ❓
BTC.D rally in Sep-Oct ❓
ALT/BTC pairs go to 0.25 ❓
ETH/BTC higher low❓
Admittedly, there is a lot going on with this chart.
But if you look carefully at it, you'll see that #Bitcoin prints the same pattern each post-halving year.
Up in July-Aug
Down in Sep
Up into the market cycle top in Q4
Bear Market
Some people are still begging for rate cuts.
But the smartest monetary policy indicator in the world is saying 2 things:
1. Rate cuts aren't necessary (yet)
2. Rate cuts still aren't coming (yet)
Follow the 3M Treasury yield to know when the Fed will cut.