Knowledge888

Oil & energy geopolitical intelligence | Real-time Iran & Hormuz monitoring | Not Financial Advice | Follow for daily intelligence | Substack below

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

@RampCapitalLLC

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

💵FREE SAUCE💵

File this away to reference in the coming days...

Peak euphoria is when bears go extinct.

That's the moment smart money starts trimming.

Not exiting. Trimming.

Taking profits.

Keeping exposure but getting lighter.

$SPY $QQQ

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

🪙FREE SAUCE🪙

Anyone positioned long equities or short vol right now is playing against a stacked deck tonight.

BoJ is expected to dump up to ¥5 trillion in U.S. bonds at 7:50 PM Eastern... ten minutes before Trump speaks from Beijing. The Fed's unscheduled $7.6 billion injection this morning wasn't random. They were pre-positioning liquidity. If the BoJ dump overwhelms that buffer, yields rip and equities crack.

Separately, Iran has begun selectively granting Chinese vessels passage through the Strait of Hormuz while keeping it closed to everyone else. That chips away at the global supply-premium narrative. If the market starts pricing in a two-tier Strait, oil gives back some of its recent bid.

Meanwhile SPX gamma has surged to the highest since 2021... the fastest climb on record. The last time positioning looked like this was right before the 2022 bear market. A thin cushion plus a bond shock plus a geopolitical binary equals a market that's one headline away from a sharp reversal.

You're welcome.

***NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE***

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

🟠MARKETS UPDATES🟠

PPI came in hott at 1.4% for April which is nearly triple the 0.5% estimate.
Annual wholesale inflation hit 6%, the highest in years. That's on top of yesterday's 3.8% CPI.
Energy prices are pushing inflation through the pipeline and the Fed has no room to cut.

Markets opened flat.
SPY is holding at $737.
USO gapped up 4% pre-market on the PPI print then gave it all back.
Oil's fading because Trump is in China.

Trump landed in Beijing today with 12 CEOs on Air Force One: Tesla, NVIDIA, Apple, BlackRock, Goldman Sachs, Boeing, Qualcomm, and more.
He's meeting Xi Jinping for two days and they're talking tariffs, trade, and the Strait of Hormuz.
Prediction markets are pricing in a tariff reduction by May 22.

The Strait is still closed. Iran isn't folding. China gets 38% of its oil through Hormuz and wants it open. But wanting it and delivering it are two different things.

Trump announces something tonight at 8PM Eastern time after market close. So stay tuned...

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

🟠OIL UPDATES🟠

CPI came in at 3.8% this morning. That's up 17.9% YoY. Oil's not letting up. WTI is at $98 and USO ripping nearly 4% today.

Trump rejected Iran's peace deal and called it "unacceptable". The Strait of Hormuz is still closed and the ceasefire is on life support.

My read: until that strait reopens or a real ceasefire takes place, oil prices have one direction. USO isn't done running. 🛢️

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

@MitcheIl If this is true... this is genius. A true master of "The Art of The Deal" 🫡

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

@alifarhat79 I feel personally attacked

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

@calvinfroedge

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

@HealthRanger

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

🚨Here it is — the simplest version of how this market has moved since Feb 28:

The Rhythm
Monday-Wednesday: Trump talks peace, negotiations, "great progress." Oil bleeds down. The market prices in de-escalation.

Thursday-Friday: Reality check hits. Iran pushes back. Israel objects. The "deal" turns out to be nothing. Oil stabilizes or starts creeping back up.

Saturday-Sunday: Trump goes nuclear on Truth Social. Threats, warnings, "all options on table." No market to react.

Monday open: Gap up. Oil spikes 3-5% in the first hour. Anyone who bought Friday close prints money. By Tuesday, the bleed resumes as the peace talk cycle restarts.

***NOT FINANCIAL ADVICE**

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

@itsolelehmann 100% real

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

@iamdisplacement Being smart isn’t the edge you think it is

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

@Nostre_damus Brace for impact...

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

$USO made it all the way to $137 before it sold off...

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

$USO just jumped from ~$130 to ~$135 in 30 minutes...

I ran seized 2 more cargo ships in the Strait of Hormuz. The IRGC released proof-of-life video showing commandos storming a vessel.

US-Iran talks have collapsed. Reuters confirmed there's been no progress and shipping restrictions remain.

IEA warning just dropped... The head of the IEA (Birol) said "we are facing the biggest energy security threat in decades".

Brent crude crossed $100/bbl. Psychological barrier breached today.

Institutional money started piling in and that massive volume spike at 1PM ET was big players reacting to the news flow.

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

🚨Straigh of Hormuz Updates 🚨

Trump orders Navy to "shoot and kill" any Iranian mine-laying boats.

Iran fires back: "The Strait will not be managed without us — this is our red line."

Tehran collecting transit fees, expects $100-200B/yr.

Pentagon says clearing mines could take 6 months.

Saudi reserves 45% depleted. Ceasefire talks stalled. Both sides hardening positions.

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

@TradersConf

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

Brace for impact...

[Catherine Austin Fitts @austin_fit76995]

Why is this video not going viral?
Maybe the establishment do not want you to see it.
Check out the latest CBDC ad by Palantir

That's quite a warning...

Please share far and wide.

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

@RoundtableSpace This is so true lol

[Knowledge888 @knowledge888_]

@rushicrypto This is the most accurate post I've seen